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UK Long Range Weather Forecast.
Topic Started: 26 May 2015, 12:22 PM (100 Views)
Audi-Tek
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UK Long Range Weather Forecast.



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Our Long Range Forecast is here to provide you with an idea as to the expected weather within the longer term across the UK in general. As you can appreciate weather forecasting is not an exact science and the further one progresses away from present day then confidence in the expected weather decreases accordingly. However, using longer range forecasting techniques and information the below forecast will provide a good guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall throughout the next 3 to 4 weeks.

Longer Term Forecast and Trends

Tuesday 26th May to Monday 22nd June 2015

Summary

Within the short term, during the final week of May, further cool and often unsettled conditions are expected and that will round-off a particularly cool and unsettled May this year. However, confidence is increasing to suggest that the first spell of summer weather will develop into early June as high pressure becomes increasingly influential leading to increasingly warm temperatures and drier than average conditions. Usual uncertainties are present within the long term, but further warm and quite dry weather is likely to extend well into June at the moment given latest long range forecast weather data.

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Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 16C

WEEK 1 (26th May to 1st June):

Summary: Generally cool and unsettled to end May

Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are likely to remain slightly below average to end May by around 1C or 2C so a generally cool final week of May is expected and this is also in keeping with a particularly cool May this year.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be slightly above average with further spells of rain and showers, some of which will be heavy at times, especially so between the 29th May and 1st of June.

Confidence: High confidence for May to end generally cool and unsettled with further rain and showers at times and this will be in keeping with a particularly cool and unsettled May this year.



WEEK 2 (2nd to 8th June):

Summary: Increasingly fine, settled and warmer.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to begin to recover during this week and potentially become above average by 1C or 2C as the first significant spell of warm weather of the year potentially develops through the week.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to become slightly below average as high pressure develops during the week leading to increasingly fine and settled conditions.

Confidence: Medium to high confidence for a change in the weather as we move into early June as high pressure becomes increasingly influential. This will, as a result, signal the potential for the first significant spell of summer weather with temperatures becoming warm or perhaps very warm and most areas becoming drier than average too.



WEEK 3 (9th to 15th June):

Summary: Further fine, dry and warm weather at times but some showery conditions possible.

Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to be around average for early to mid-June which will lead to generally pleasant conditions with some warm weather at times. There is a low risk that very warm and hot weather may develop, but overall the most likely evolution is for temperatures to be near to average.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near or slightly below average given that there is a weak signal for high pressure to continue to dominate through the week. However, some showery and perhaps thundery conditions can’t be ruled out at this stage despite the week potentially being relatively dry.

Confidence: Low to medium confidence for now to suggest a predominantly dry and warm week still as mid-June progresses but perhaps with an increasing risk of some showers and perhaps thundery conditions developing as the week progresses.



WEEK 4 (16th to 22nd June):

Summary: Weak signal for mainly dry and settled conditions after mid-June but perhaps with a risk of some thundery conditions at times.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to remain near to average so further warm weather is likely at times, continued low risk of potentially very warm and humid conditions developing temporarily.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are currently forecast to be around average for the time of year, though perhaps trending slightly below average over the week but some showery and thundery conditions may bring some significant local variations in rainfall totals.

Confidence: Low confidence for now given generally weak signals in the expected weather after mid-June but overall quite ‘average’ conditions look likely which will equate to predominantly dry and quite warm weather, but with perhaps some thundery conditions possible.


Link ............. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/long-range-weather/#sthash.51Tg1zxR.dpuf


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