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‘Springing’ into summer? Perhaps not just yet!
Topic Started: 25 May 2012, 03:22 AM (28 Views)
skibboy
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Springing’ into summer?
Perhaps not just yet!

By Captain Bob in Wombourne 27/05/2012

There appears at the moment to be a ‘pattern battle’ commencing which may well determine the characteristics of early summer, this over and above that which is consistently seen at this time of year, when the rhythmic alterations between winter/spring into summer takes place?

High pressure is desperate to rebuild to the north or northwest and through a ‘cold spanner’ into the works of a late spring warm up.


What I foresee is that indeed high pressure attempts to push colder Arctic air south into Northern Europe, this make not make the inroads that some are indicating but possibly what it will do is further ‘destabilise’ the conditions over the UK and northern Europe through the middle of May after a few days at least of an anticyclonic influenced pattern?

The main run through the middle of May looks quite mixed for all areas, it is only during the latter stages of the month that high pressure builds back through and early summer really settles across the UK, but will it last?

On current evidence, any real warmth may be short-lived, high pressure re-establishing to the west, a cooler regime establishing and north-western Atlantic sourced flow covering all areas.

Through the shorter term high pressure will be a large feature close to the north or northwest of the UK, this will have to be monitored for its intensity which will be the controlling factor in the validity of this forecast.

It looks as if this anticyclone will attempt to push cooler air southwards into northern Europe, the risk is there, but to be honest is undetermined at the moment.

Northern Britain will see some largely fine and dry weather and remaining rather cool at times, some wintry showers possibly over higher ground but essentially a dry scenario.

27/04/2012........ England and Wales are at risk of some outbreaks of potentially heavy rain at first, this weakening and becoming more showery in nature later as pressure begins to build from the northwest.

Temperatures too will be rising generally, especially across southern Britain for a time, although falling back once more as cooler air seeps south-eastward as brighter conditions establish across all areas.

A spell thereafter of essentially cool and mainly dry weather can be anticipated beneath a ridge of high pressure, this weakening later allowing ‘stalled’ Atlantic low pressure systems to edge closer to the UK.

10/05/2012 ..... The pattern here looks as if it’ll becoming rather more fluid, with low pressure taking control as it become more zonal.

All of us will see spells of rain and potentially strong winds to rustle those ‘darling buds of May’, followed by brighter and blustery showers following the main bands of rain associated with quite deep low pressure tracking in off the Atlantic.

Systems will clear slowly away to the east or northeast, a legacy of showers remaining in its wake, these slowly dying away to brighter and drier spells before yet more organised bands of showers or outbreaks of rain arrives from the west or southwest, these pushing through all areas on a mild west to south-westerly flow.

24/05/2012......31/05/2012 High pressure attempts to build in across the UK and to some extent it will succeed.

A few days of essentially settled and fine weather establishing as a ridge of high pressure extends across the south of Britain, a little more mixed across the north for a while longer.

Becoming warm in any prolonged sunny spells, these perhaps triggering one or two scattered showers inland during the afternoon, broken cloud and showers continuing across the northwest, these too dying away later in the period.

As the forecast period closes the indications are that it’ll become cooler and fresher with more in the way of showers, as high pressure builds to the west of the UK, a colder north-westerly flow establishing.

source: Posted Image
Edited by skibboy, 25 May 2012, 03:23 AM.
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