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Remarkable consistency in model runs Looking okay for the Jubilee weekend
Topic Started: 28 May 2012, 11:44 PM (33 Views)
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>> Simon's Weather Musings << from Posted Image

Remarkable consistency in model runs

Looking okay for the Jubilee weekend

By Simon Keeling in Wombourne 08:45hrs 28/5/12
Temperature: 16.2C Weather: Sunny

I admit that I stand in awe of the brain-boxes that create the atmospheric computer models which we use each day to predict the forecast of the days and weeks ahead. It's hard enough for me to comprehend a single equation let alone a whole bunch of them stacked together!

But my 'awe-some-thing' goes to new heights on days when there is remarkable consistency between model runs. Now of course, it may be that the forecast may still turnout incorrect, but more often than not this consistency is a sign that confidence in the forecast is relatively high.

And that's where we are with the GFS model right now. It's been consistently (as well as other models have) building in higher pressure again at the end of this week, after a brief, showery, cooler breakdown in the middle of the week.

And so conditions are boding well for the Jubilee weekend. Pressure is going to be building again, and although a few showers can't be ruled out, it really does look very pleasant indeed.

So, keep everything crossed...after the weather of the bank holiday earlier in the month I think we deserve it, don't you?

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