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Bookend Week Of Heavy Rains For UK, Heat Builds Over South, Eastern Europe
Topic Started: 11 Jun 2012, 10:55 PM (32 Views)
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Bookend Week Of Heavy Rains For UK, Heat Builds Over South, Eastern Europe.



The europe pattern at the moment consists of a western trough and an eastern ridge with a constant southwesdt flow pumping Saharan air northeast across the central and eastern Med andsoutheast Europe. There will be little change in this setup over next 7 days however while the trough intensifies in the west, the ridge will begin drawing super hot air from off North Africa by Wednesday onwards.

RAINSTORM FOR UK ON FRIDAY

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Friday looks to be a nationwide soaker according to the GFS (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

One low centred between England and France is currently bringing heavy/persistent rains across south and central areas of the UK with cool, below normal temps to accompany. It’s going to take till later tomorrow to finally see clearance from this rain and this should allow respite Wed and Thurs with just patchy showers but plenty of drier weather. The next system and it’s rain bearing front will spread UK-wide heavy rains in from the Atlantic on Friday with wind as well. I have concerns over this as we may see some tremendous rains from this with a widespread 1-2 inches with possible pockets of 2-4 inches in favoured face-facing upslope areas. Any further heavy rains from the Midlands south isn’t good news as it won’t take much to further flood these areas as the soils are already saturated.
RECORD BREAKING HEAT SETTLES INTO EASTERN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
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(Courtesy of ECMWF)

While it’s been well above normal persistently over eastern parts of the continent, the ECMWF model since early last week has been persistent on building an explosice ridge with heights soaring beyond 588dc from Tripoli to Moscow with likely record breaking temps which could cause death and discomfort for 4-6 days starting Wednesday. It’s as the trough expands south and extends all the way down to northern Iberia and even down through the Alps, this will force an intense hot dome centred over the Sahara to expands northeastwards along a southwest-northeast oriented trough axis. This pumps 100F air up through southern Italy, Greece, the Blankans up through Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine with 90s F extended way beyond Moscow. Last night we saw a rainy Warsaw, Poland as here and other western Euro 2012 venues lie beneath the boundary seperating the trough and ridge.

Records may be threatened from an area stretching from Malta eastwards to Cyprus on northwards through Turkey up into Ukraine and Russia.

I fear for those unable to seek shelter and for tourists unaccustomed with this intensity of heat. The hottest area may be Turkey where I said several days ago that we may see the Turkish interior heat to between 110-120F and I stand by this given the intensity of the ridge and core of heat centred directly overhead. Nighttime lows may also set records with littlew relief from the stifling heat built up through the day.
HEAT CORE POSITIONS ITSELF FROM ITALY TO GERMANY EARLY WEST NEXT WEEK, TROUGH REMAINS OVER UK-IRELAND

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(Courtesy of ECMWF)

By this weekend we see the UK begin the process or attempt to dry out from the Friday’s heavy rains although it’s possible we see a rash of heavy, thundery showers which follows the initial rain band, that would keep it mostly wet and of course cool into the early part of next week.

As for the continental mainland, the blowtorch which roasts the central and eastern Med from mid this week through the weekend looks to slide west through Poland and into Germany in the next in 6 days. Heat over Libya and even Algeria will get drawn north as the trough poushes west and activates a southerly flow further west. Those heading down to the Balearics by this weekend may be set to face African intensity heat.

At this time, the UK looks to stay beneath the trough although it’s coverage is shrinking with this alteration in the upper pattern from this weekend on!

Even the eastern low countries may see warmer, southwesterlies but the focus of dangerous and potentially record breaking heat will shift from westwards to Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic up into Germany which looks to swelter next week as the heat core repositions.
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(Courtesy of ECMWF)
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(Courtesy of ECMWF)
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(Courtesy of ECMWF)
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(Courtesy of ECMWF)

MONDAY'S VOGAN'S VIEWS ON EUROPE: In-Depth Look At Next 10 Days Across Europe


Video Link .............. http://youtu.be/ceYCfYrKg_g



Source .............. http://www.markvoganweather.com/europe/2012/06/11/1913/
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