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Week 3 Challenge
Topic Started: Apr 11 2014, 06:14 PM (1,665 Views)
Kefiroth
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We're going to let Taurus actually take it though, right?
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ArchangelBaruch
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I was thinking more about getting it ourselves.

But well, it should have the same effect...unless that gets us in non-Safety.


Are Taurus willing to take te chance?
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Kefiroth
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Let's take it ourselves, then
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Kirbymuncher
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Nice blind claim... I am literally trying to write a cryptogram solver right now (bit bored at work)
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ArchangelBaruch
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Aaaand Taurus claimed something unrelated.

...Let's go with Amplefy?
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Kefiroth
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I shot him a message on Steam but he doesn't seem to be around right now

I'll let you guys know what's up once he gets back to me
Edited by Kefiroth, Apr 16 2014, 08:47 AM.
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Kefiroth
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Looks like he went ahead and claimed something else before reading my message. Oh well :(
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ROBANN_88
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isn't there a big chance that someone could just block us if we actually take it?
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ArchangelBaruch
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Well, Cancer has claimed the other 4-pointer.

That could be troublesome, as Aries also claimed it. So either Cancer wants to play a game of chicken or it's just a placeholder to snipe at us.



This isn't looking good. Our best bet would be to switch with Taurus in secret to make sure to get a 3-pointer while still blocking the second 4-pointer.

That is, until Saggitarius HERPDERPed all over it.


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ArchangelBaruch
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Well, Sag changed. So...Taurus ninja swap?
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Choco
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Would Taurus really just give us the points?
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ROBANN_88
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both Cancer and Aries claim the amulet, how trustworthy is it that Aries stick to it?
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ArchangelBaruch
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Quote:
 
Would Taurus really just give us the points?

We can tell them: "honest talk here: 4-pointer is riskier than 3-pointer, and we just reserved our item in order to trade it eventually. We want to play it safe. Wanna switch?"


...They don't need to know that the Cancer alliance is targetting us >______________>

Yeah, it's a bit of a dick move.
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Apr 16 2014, 10:21 AM.
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Dreamwalker
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You know, I don't see us getting Shame regardless, and I'm not sure we'd get Safety if we let Taurus claim the 4 point item. Maybe we should just try to actually get the 4 point item. Having Taurus or somebody get Dominance is useless to us if we don't even have Safety.

I'll let you guys think on that for a few hours, and if you still want to have Taurus claim the 4-pointer when I get home, I'll send my contact there a PM.
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ROBANN_88
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if we take the cryptogram, and Aries takes the amulet, we can atleast block Cancer from getting them.
it might be worth it.
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ArchangelBaruch
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Quote:
 
Having Taurus or somebody get Dominance is useless to us if we don't even have Safety.



If we switch we will almost surely get 3 points. From there, we can do whatever in Round 4.


If we don't switch, chances of getting blocked are pretty high I'd say, so we would drop to 8ish position, out of Safety.


Plus, if one of our allies gets Dominance we can we sure that we'll keep our Safety.
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ArchangelBaruch
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...That slip by Apple looked somewhat intentional.
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ROBANN_88
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ArchangelBaruch
Apr 16 2014, 11:01 AM
...That slip by Apple looked somewhat intentional.


Steam chat
Quote:
 
Apple: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/839-games-n-things/68996212?page=9
ROB_88: did you do that on purpose?
Apple: yes?


a few days ago he was claiming that he had successfully fooled Inception into thinking he was some account or other on Libra, don't remember which exactly. but it doesn't really matter
Edited by ROBANN_88, Apr 16 2014, 11:21 AM.
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Choco
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Should we vote on which item to take?

I'd prefer the 4-pointer for 2 reasons:
1. It's unlikely that Cancer will persuade anyone of taking it, especially with Dream having talked about that possibility in the last round. They probably expect us to switch, and it's not like they have infinite allies that would all just take the bullet if Cancer tells them to.
2. If we DO get cockblocked, that at least gives us some information on who works with Cancer, and how closely.

(oh and 4>3 of course)
Edited by Choco, Apr 16 2014, 11:34 AM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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The other 4-pointer is a three way mess ATM, it could come over our way. I'd say the chances of us scoring if we actually go with the current item are almost zero while if we switch the chances of getting three points are higher.
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ROBANN_88
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i agree with Choco.
an added bonus is that it makse sure that Cancer can't take it either
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ArchangelBaruch
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Well, majority rules I guess.
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ROBANN_88
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well, let's wait a bit for more people to say it
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Kefiroth
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In Choco We Trust
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Kirbymuncher
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I'd prefer the 3 pointer through the trade we were discussing. Still shows us who is working for Cancer (since they'd try to block the 4), and is probably enough for safety if we can grab it. If we are blocked this round, I'm almost 100% sure we will not get safety.

The 3 feels like more sure points to me (provided our ally is willing to trade) so it seems like the better option.
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Kefiroth
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I don't know what to think, really.

3 points does seem like the safer choice, but what if they expected us to think that
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ROBANN_88
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what are the chances that if we trade with them, they'll use that info for some scheme?
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ArchangelBaruch
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If they are allied with Cancer, we'll get hit for sure.

If they screw up, we'll be hit for sure. Unlikely based on past votes.

And we may also get hit by a stray bullet.



Other than that, the chances of the information leaking out are almost none.
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Choco
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ArchangelBaruch
Apr 16 2014, 12:35 PM
Other than that, the chances of the information leaking out are almost none.
you literally mentioned every way they could go wrong so of course they can't other than that
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ArchangelBaruch
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Well, if I had to quantify the chances of it going wrong...


4-pointer:

Sniped by Cancer ally: 60%
Stray bullet: 40%

TOTAL: 1 - 0.4*0.6 - 0.6*0.4 = 52%


3-pointer:
Set up by Taurus: 15%
Screwing up: 20%
Stray bullet: 40%

TOTAL: 0.15*0.8*0.6 + 0.2*0.85*0.6 + 0.4*0.85*0.8 = 45%


Totally arbitrary percentages.
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Apr 16 2014, 01:43 PM.
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Choco
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setup and screwup are mutually exclusive though, so that calculation is wrong
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ArchangelBaruch
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Since they are mutually exclusive the operation is right.

Else you would have to calculate their junction and stuff.
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Choco
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...I'll just assume you're joking since that'd invalidate the first calculation (which is correct)
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ArchangelBaruch
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A OR B = NOT ((NOT A) AND (NOT B))



I don't see what you don't like about that.



EDIT: Wait, shit, you are right. It should be A XOR B.


brb updating calculations
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Apr 16 2014, 01:33 PM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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Screw it, XOR FOR EVERYONE


...How did we get here...
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Choco
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pikachurocks: baruch sucks
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ROBANN_88
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i don't math
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ArchangelBaruch
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For some reason I couldn't grasp that A XOR B = NOT(NOT(A) AND NOT(B)) - A AND B


Yet I got to the second result through two ways.

...Let's go to sleep.
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Kirbymuncher
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When in doubt, spend 2 minutes writing it on a sticky note in pencil before typing anything. Fixes a lot of my stupid math issues, at least.
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ArchangelBaruch
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I was drawing Venn diagrams in my head the whole time.
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Dreamwalker
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3 points are safe?! Are you crazy? That's what everyone's thinking is going to be safe.

I think we optimize our chances by telling someone to claim to be taking our 4-pointer and then we both say we're going to keep on it.
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Dreamwalker
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But in actuality make sure that team doesn't take the 4-pointer.
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Dreamwalker
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Sent this message to my Taurus contact:

I feel like Gemini has a better chance of getting that 4-pointer we claimed (the cryptogram) if another group also says they're taking it. It will likely prevent a third group from trying.

Gemini would be very grateful if you pretended to claim the cryptogram (but of course didn't actually send it as your answer). We'd also appreciate if as few people as possible on your team know you're conspiring with us in this way, that way it doesn't get leaked to Cancer or anyone
Please? :)
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ROBANN_88
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that could work.

we could contact the guy on Virgo, but i'm not sure if they are free of Cancer supporters.

Pisces, maybe?
since they only got like two active people, the risk of leaks is low

EDIT: yeah, Taurus works too
Edited by ROBANN_88, Apr 16 2014, 03:03 PM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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If it ever works Taurus will get zero points.

Which again is a bit of a jerk move.
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Dreamwalker
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Pisces memebers who are inactive might accidentally see the post in the topic thiugh and then actually send it in as their PM. It's too risky.
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Dreamwalker
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ArchangelBaruch
Apr 16 2014, 03:05 PM
If it ever works Taurus will get zero points.

Which again is a bit of a jerk move.
I've considered if they say no, I can tell them we'll do it for them in Round 4 of this challenge.

Also, idk if my contact cares immensely about his whole twam. He might. I'm just saying I don't know. Perhaps he's just looking for strong allies come merge-time.
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Choco
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ArchangelBaruch
Apr 16 2014, 03:05 PM
If it ever works Taurus will get zero points.

Which again is a bit of a jerk move.
more like dickwalker am i right
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Dreamwalker
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Well think about it. Gemini will not be losing anyone come merge-time if there's an inactivity check. A lot of other teams will lose someone. If he's looking to the future of his survival, it may be better for him to help Gemini more than his team at some point.... that point may not be Week 3, but hey, it's worth a shot. >_>
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Choco
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Dreamwalker
Apr 16 2014, 03:22 PM
that point may not be Week 3
it may

as long as there's inactives on the team, he can get away with it
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