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Week 3 Challenge
Topic Started: Apr 11 2014, 06:14 PM (1,664 Views)
Kirbymuncher
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Makes Pisces a good ally, since they can take lots of hits for us
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Dreamwalker
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I don't think Taurus is going for it. They think someone else will take their 3-pointer if tet do it (as if that wasn't already going to happen even if they don't move). Maybe we can get another team to do it, or maybe we risk not having a team false claim and just hope we actually get it ourselves. Hope that everyone is thinking 4s will be a failure and is thus going for 3s (thus making 3s the failures).
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Kirbymuncher
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Did you actually send the PM as posted in the topic?
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Dreamwalker
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Yeah. Just in case Mayo says about which teams he's waiting on. Cause I doubt we're going to find that team to rig it for us. And I think "sent the pm" will make other teams less willing to pick the option than us simply "claiming" it would.

Plus I think it's the right decision. It's way too easy for teams to rig us to not get Safety in Round 4, so we need to make sure we have sufficient points for Safety by the end of Round 3. This is the best way to do that imo.
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Dreamwalker
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We can't drop down to the 3s because everyone is going to think the 4s are the most risky and think the 3s are somehow safer while still giving them eniugh points.

Or, you know, it might not go that way. We don't really know how it's going to go.
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Dreamwalker
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We can change it later if we really want to. Or you guys can overrule me by sending 2 PMs if you come to a conclusion you like more while I'm not on.
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Kefiroth
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I think there's probably a 20% chance of us actually getting the points.

Seems more likely that Cancer would set up two of their loyal teams to cover both 4-point options just to be safe.
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Dreamwalker
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Even if our chance is low here, I think it's still our best option. And we get the added bonus of seeing who blocks us. I'm not sure Libra or Cancer themselves would be willing to block us in Round 3 when they can't yet be confident how their own points will end up. An I don't think they can get a team to pick that option when we've been the most forward about what we're choosing this round. Other teams mostly care about their own standings.

We can't make a move like this in Round 4, so w hve to do it in Round 3.
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Dreamwalker
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If we're being rigged against, it doesn't much matter WHAT we do anyway. We'll just end up Not Safe regardless and we'll probably avoid Shame either way too. So we might as well actually do something which gives us a chance (any chance) at Safety.

Or maybe Dream is going crazy. If two of you guys want to send PMs and overruke me, be my guest.
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Choco
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Dreamwalker
Apr 16 2014, 06:37 PM
Yeah. Just in case Mayo says about which teams he's waiting on. Cause I doubt we're going to find that team to rig it for us. And I think "sent the pm" will make other teams less willing to pick the option than us simply "claiming" it would.

Plus I think it's the right decision. It's way too easy for teams to rig us to not get Safety in Round 4, so we need to make sure we have sufficient points for Safety by the end of Round 3. This is the best way to do that imo.
Do you not even realize that those posts sound like blatant lies and will almost certainly make at least one team change their submission to the cryptogram?
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Dreamwalker
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That's why I wanted an ally to (pretend to) claim the cryptogram instead, but it looked like that wasn't happening.. at least not fast enough to make a difference.

If someone thinks my posts sound like blatant lies, then they are wrong and taking an undue risk for themselves. Even if they were lies, there would have to be some rationale for lying. Either we think nobody will take it (in which case why wouldn't we be honest and just take it ourselves?) or we're trying to make it so one particular team (who is not us) will take it. In either case, it would be unwise for another team to try to take it.

You may say maybe people think we want nobody to take the item but also don't want to risk taking it ourselves. But then that would mean we'd be picking something else. And all our driving people away from that one item will increase the chance any other particular item is taken, so it would increase the chance that whatever we do pick (if not the item we claimed) will have someone else pick it too.

The logic works out in my head and I still think this is our best shot, but there's 10 members on this team so if you think there exists a better shot at eventual Safety, you only need 2 of the 9 of you to overrule me. We're definitely active enough for that, and yet I don't see people overruling me yet.
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Cody11533
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I just want to say that I am currently in the middle of my Finals for school, so I haven't been paying close attention to the last couple rounds, but I trust you guys to do well.
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ROBANN_88
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i support keeping the cryptogram
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radman9000

wow... can't believe it was cancer to block us
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ROBANN_88
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on the plus side, we stopped Cancer from getting the high score
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Dreamwalker
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Cancer is a bunch of idiots and I'm annoyed at them for not believing we really picked Cryptogram (and for being the only ones). Cora (and others on the team) that I tried to contact via Steam were unwilling to overrule Inception. So since we're not going to get Shame, I just went ahead and picked the biggest point item again. We'd probably be stolen from (with Capricorn and Libra on top) if we get Safety but not Dominance anyway.

Again, if you don't like my decision, feel free to overrule me by sending 2 different votes.
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Cody11533
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I'm good with it. I already ate part of it, so we better get that pizza.
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ROBANN_88
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i'm good with it.
if Cancer does it again, they risk joining us in non-safety.

what they'll do depends basically on whether they value their own safety higher than making us vote.
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Kirbymuncher
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We could technically get shame, though I don't think that's too likely.

One option we could try is that now that we have claimed the highest one, and probably won't be blocked (since we aren't gonna get dominance anyways), to trade our spot with Pisces, hopefully getting us to safety and them to dominance at which point they would not steal from us. Does this sound possible or have I just gone insane?
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Dreamwalker
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Looking at the results of last round, the best we could've done if we switched at the end would've been by switching to the 2 point Cup.
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Dreamwalker
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Kirbymuncher
Apr 17 2014, 08:40 PM
We could technically get shame, though I don't think that's too likely.

One option we could try is that now that we have claimed the highest one, and probably won't be blocked (since we aren't gonna get dominance anyways), to trade our spot with Pisces, hopefully getting us to safety and them to dominance at which point they would not steal from us. Does this sound possible or have I just gone insane?
I went insane long before you this challenge.

If you want to do that, go ahead, but my PM for First Place Pizza is sticking for now. (perhaps if my mood changes later I'll change it)
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Dreamwalker
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andshock: cancer>you
Dreamwalker: cancer||me
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Dreamwalker
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ROBANN_88
Apr 17 2014, 08:39 PM
i'm good with it.
if Cancer does it again, they risk joining us in non-safety.

what they'll do depends basically on whether they value their own safety higher than making us vote.
Yeah, we've shown we're serious about our pick. I think they'll edge on the side of caution this time.

I'm actually more worried about a currently-0 point team picking this option with us than I am worried about anything else.... but if that happens, guess who has 0 points and who has 1? ;) So I think we're good.
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Kefiroth
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Just Received this PM from Kero:

Quote:
 
Subject: TEAM VIRGO

Hey Kefi I was hoping for you guys to back me up on declaring Virgo as this games Purple Team. Basically I reached out to them to not screw us over and to have a truce but they decided to f*** us. I was hoping you would help us and possibly other teams in deliberately sabotaging them from here on out. In return, we'll go ahead and claim the second place pizza to stop other teams from getting the second highest scoring item. We have no chance but we fully support you guys hopefully winning this challenge. Feel free to share this with your teammates.
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Kirbymuncher
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Now I guess the question is whether we go with that plan (they block the 3point, we get the 4point) or whether we try what I suggested.

I'm a little worried that even if we do get safety that it will be taken unless we can get on the good side of the team that has dominance. I don't really remember much about our relations with capricorn but they probably are not that great D:
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Dreamwalker
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You guys do whatever you want. I'm going to go take a walk and relax at a 24-hour diner, I think. Or maybe I'll go to sleep. One of those.

Sorry for my bad mood today. I guess I'm upset because today is the first day my feelings towards Inception have changed from him not being good for my game to my actually disliking him a bit. And also there's that cognitive dissonance thing because despite feeling dislike towards him, I also still like him. Cognitive Dissonance + Dream = strange behavior
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Kirbymuncher
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Well I'll bring up the possibility with Pisces, at least. I'm not really expecting them to accept the offer but it might be nice just to talk to them in case they end up in dominance and we somehow have safety
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Kirbymuncher
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Response from Pisces

That's a nice offer from you guys, so thanks ^_^

We don't mind going along with this, but we'd rather not announce it in the topic, if that's OK with you guys. Deal?


So do we want to go with this or not? It's possible Pisces is just trying to mess us up, but they can't do that without messing themselves up too which I don't think they'd do when they are so close to dominance.

Keep in mind that if we do use this plan, we need to get Scorpio out of the way of the 3pointer item
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Dreamwalker
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Here's a transcript of my talk with Pirate. Don't leak this to Inception because we don't want Pirate to be eliminated from that team for daring to think different from his leader.

The first bit is me trying to get in contact with him after I heard from Inception and Cora that they had picked the Cryptogram because they thought we didn't. Note that the PM deadline had already passed, but I was hoping Mayo would check his PMs before making the official post and maybe still accept changes. The reason I didn't change our own stuff is because (1) we had nothing reliable to change to and (2) it would've looked stupid if Cancer actually didn't pick the Cryptogram but just scared us away from it anyway at the last moment. Plus maybe (3) disliking Inception. Anyway, onto the transcript...

Dreamwalker: hey, go vote any item other than Cryptogram to Mayo
Dreamwalker: asap before he updates
Dreamwalker: cause we really did pick crypotgram and you guys should've known that
Dreamwalker: if you want points on cancer, you need to get another teammate to send the same thing as you to Mayo ASAP (anything that's not the cryptogram) to overrule him.
Dreamwalker: Cora doesn't want to overrule Inception, so maybe you and Jake?


Then Mayo posted the update and several more minutes elapsed before Pirate saw anything:

ThePirateKirby: sorry, I was reading and AFK
ThePirateKirby: But no one else on my team would have went with it
Dreamwalker: That's alright. You just ended up not getting any points as a result. Not that I really expected you to overrule Inception anyway.
Dreamwalker: it would be a death sentence on your team
Dreamwalker: but I had to try (while going insane)
ThePirateKirby: If It was feasably possible to do so, I would have, but right now Inception seems to have a holy war againt Gemeni
ThePirateKirby: I'm not going to tell you whats going on in our QT but it's hillarious
Dreamwalker: lol
Dreamwalker: Oh, and you don't have to worry about my saying that you would've if it was feasibly possible.
Dreamwalker: Because I don't WANT you eliminated from Cancer anyway.
ThePirateKirby: Good. And the reason I would have is since I didn't really think you were lying. and you wern't
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ArchangelBaruch
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I wonder how Inception controls people.


Fear? Charisma? Cookies?
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ArchangelBaruch
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Also, switching with Pisces might be dangerous, from teams who want to block them from Dominance (so we'd get hit).
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Choco
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Quote:
 
shock is an idiot

Quote:
 
Cancer is a bunch of idiots

Quote:
 
andshock: cancer>you

I find this funny.
Edited by Choco, Apr 18 2014, 04:20 AM.
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Choco
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Libra and Capricorn haven't called dibs on anything, so either Pisces gets dominance anyway, or what Baruch said happens and Libra/Capricorn switch(es) to the offense to prevent Pisces's win.

So I vote to keep the 1st place pizza.
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Kirbymuncher
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Guess I've been overruled.

I still think we should get scorpio off of the 3pointer though, both to try and make sure they don't get shame as well as a goodwill gesture to pisces
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Choco
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Well, sure.
Is there a danger of them picking it? Pisces called dibs pretty fast


And idk how you phrased that offer to Pisces, but we need to tell them something like "Thanks, but the team was against the idea, we'll show our gratitude when we can though"
I wouldn't mind a Pisces alliance, they're easy to talk to and have a lot of voting fodder
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Kirbymuncher
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I mentioned it as sort of a "I'm still talking with my team but I want to know if you'd be willing"

As for Scorpio: According to the PM Kefi got, they're picking it not so much for their own points, but to stop others from getting it and hopefully help us. But I don't think them picking it would be helpful to any of the teams involved.
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Choco
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Oh, right, dunno how I forgot that...stupid short-term memory.

Yeah, we can let them hate Virgo (for now), but we need to tell them to not claim Pisces's item.
Cancer's, on the other hand...
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ArchangelBaruch
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I'm with Epona: in this round it makes sense to keep the 4-pointer, especially after Dream's warnings in the topic.

Not that it's not risky, but I'd say it's almost sure Pisces' claim is going to get blocked. Meanwhile, Inception might use his single neuron and try to go for Safety with a 2-pointer.
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matt314hew
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ArchangelBaruch
Apr 18 2014, 06:09 AM
I'm with Epona: in this round it makes sense to keep the 4-pointer, especially after Dream's warnings in the topic.

Not that it's not risky, but I'd say it's almost sure Pisces' claim is going to get blocked. Meanwhile, Inception might use his single neuron and try to go for Safety with a 2-pointer.

i agree and we should keep the 4 pointer
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Dreamwalker
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Okay, I'm awake and perhaps more level-headed today.

I finally got a reply from a message I sent to Aquarius near the start of Round 2 of this challenge. I thought they had a good chance of winning then (and I'd prefer them winning to Cancer winning), so I wanted to try to be cordial on the off-chance that we got Safety and they got Dominance so that they'd be less likely to steal from us. Anyway, here's the reply I got this morning:

Re: I feel like you have a good chance of winning this.

We don't really care about Gemini at the moment, but we're annoyed at Cancer for blocking us. Interestingly enough, someone from Cancer sent me a PM asking me to block your team's item, which I don't intend to do. I just thought I'd let you know.

Sent by: Number_0ne on 4/18/2014 6:26:42 AM
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Kefiroth
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He should reply to the PM telling Cancer that they are blocking us, but not really do it.
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Dreamwalker
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Interesting idea. When I get home, I'll see if he's willing to do that.

Edit: Actually, I went ahead and asked now. I said we understand if he doesn't want to do it but we'll be very grateful if he does.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Apr 18 2014, 02:01 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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Re: I feel like you have a good chance of winning this.

I don't want to risk it at the moment. For now I'm just ignoring their message, which hopefully could confuse them.

Sent by: Number_0ne on 4/18/2014 4:44:28 PM
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Dreamwalker
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Unfortunately, since Aquarius isn't willing to do that, it seems Inception got Sagittarius to do it for him.

I recommend PM'ing various members of Sagittarius and recommending they earn OUR trust instead and pick something else (but not tell Inception they're doing that). Get some inactive Sags to overrule the leader.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Apr 18 2014, 03:30 PM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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So does that mean we are screwed...?


Also I find weird Pisces hasn't voted, seeing how tepan asked Mayo if he could change his vote.
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Dreamwalker
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Wait... call it off.

I think I got him to switch to the fireberry after some frantic PMs.

EDIT: It was Jet who warned us (and didn't want us to tell his team). Through telling him about Inception and stuff, he eventually said he'll do what he can but we owe him if he gets voted off his team as a result. He said he's the guy tasked with sending the PM to Mayo anyway, so he can change the PM to fireberry.

I think I might also tell him we'll have his back if he gets voted out at his team's next TC and then ends up on Redemption Island (and we don't already have too many Geminis there to bring back).
Edited by Dreamwalker, Apr 18 2014, 04:00 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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ArchangelBaruch
Apr 18 2014, 03:55 PM
So does that mean we are screwed...?


Also I find weird Pisces hasn't voted, seeing how tepan asked Mayo if he could change his vote.
Mayo wasn't listing the teams that haven't voted. He was listing some stuff he doesn't have in FF14.
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Cody11533
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If things change and you need someone to PM Sagittarius, I could try Squirrelgate or StifledSilence.
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ArchangelBaruch
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Oh, that's nice.


And come redemption it's easy to organize something with multiple individuals.

Like I did.

Except without the whole failing catastrophically.
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Dreamwalker
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Nice to know you have contacts, Cody. I'll update you if I think it's needed.

Btw, Jet also said "Inception's got Aries, Capricorn, Libra, and Picses with them."
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