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Week 29 & i guess 30; Clever girl
Topic Started: Nov 8 2014, 05:12 PM (637 Views)
ArchangelBaruch
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My idea of a strategy (maybe each of us can use slight variations, like 9 instead of 10?):

1) Smoke Grenade, roll 10-10-10-10. 65% chance of getting there.

2) Raptor Radar rolling 10 x4. Get as far as possible.

3) Use Meat Decoy, roll 10. If we get killed we'll be at 1x, if it somehow works (15% chance) we get to 2x.

4) Repeat.


EDIT BEFORE EDIT: ...Damn, items don't regenerate after a decoy. Back to the drawing board.
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Dreamwalker
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RIP... wait, who was he again?

Anyway, I'll think about strategy in a bit. Right now I'm thinking about food.
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ArchangelBaruch
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It's clear that doing 1) is worth it, as we can get to 10 with minimal risk. Then maybe 2) too, as the win potential is great and may as well use it (not all of us at the same time to maximize distance). And then if we get a good result with the Radar, we drop the Decoy.


Ideally we want to drop the decoy somewhere after 16, where two/three low-risk rolls will get us to 30. We need low-risk rolls because, for example to roll a 10 in 2 turns:


5 + 5 = 0.7^2 = 0.49 chances of making it.
6 + 4 = 0.5 * 0.85 = 0.425 chances of making it.
7 + 3 = 0.35 * 0.95 = 0.333 chances of making it.

...our chances get worse with a high number + low number than with two medium numbers. In comparison,

5 + 5 +5 = 0.7^3 = 0.343 chances of making it. Which is what we would get by Decoying in 16.





So here's my proposal: if we get to 20, we Decoy. That will leave us 11 after being sent back which is

3 + 4 + 4 = 0.95 * 0.85^2 = 0.69 chances of making it. Which isn't too bad.




So yeah, for the moment it's just brainstorming but do tell what you think about this plan:


1) Smoke Grenade + 10, reroll until success. 65% chance of working.

2) Raptor Radar. 100% chance of working.

3a) If we are at 16+: roll 4-. 85%+ chance of working.
3b) If we are at 13+: roll in two times 3+4. 81%+ chance of working.
3c) If we are at 12-: roll in three times 3+3+3. 86% chance of working

4) Set decoy.


Combined chance of 1-4: 56%+ of working. 5 turns at most if all goes well.


5) If at 20: 3+3+4 = 76% chances of working.
If at 19: 3 + 4 +4 = 69% chances of working.

Total turns: 8.
Total chances of getting it on one try: 43%.




As said above, better to have some variants.
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ArchangelBaruch
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Also inb4 Choco says my probability calculations are wrong.
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ArchangelBaruch
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From the topic:

Quote:
 

Or even that their first move is to use a radar and move 10 spaces then their next move is to use a smoke grenade and move 6 spaces then all their remaining moves are to move 1 space?


Actually that's pretty good strategy at 16 turns/100% effective compared to my plan. Someone should do it.



...We shall call it "the Granny Dream Goes for a walk". >_________>
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Choco
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ArchangelBaruch
Nov 8 2014, 05:42 PM
Also inb4 Choco says my probability calculations are wrong.
if you expect me to say that then they're probably wrong
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Kirbymuncher
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That's some good strategy planning, but really we should all be aiming for completey different strategies imo. There's no need for all of us to get to the end, just one of us, and we can try to pick strategies so that regardless of the position of the raptor, one of us is in a good position.

Overly simplistic example:
I submit 4, Choco submits 6, Baruch submits 8. If the raptor gets a high number, like 9 or 10, I might not have moved far, but Baruch covers a lot of distance. If the raptor shows up earlier, I'll end up still moving forwards even while the two of you are sent back to the start. The best way to make use of our multiple players is to do something like this, because of the info we have that the raptor is the same number of squares forward for each person.
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Dreamwalker
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I see. I guess this is more riggable than I thought then. Hopefully Taurus and Scorpio don't work together here.
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Choco
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I thought it was obvious that everyone should submit a different number
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Dreamwalker
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Should someone submit a 10 just in case that works out? Like maybe you do 10, 10 with radar, and 6 with smoke grenade?

I have no mathematical proof that that's the best option. It's just my idea I'm contributing. Sorry for not being more useful.
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ArchangelBaruch
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10 with radar and 10 with smoke grenade seems a good combo. If the raptor gets to 6-, the second person gets to 10. If the raptor does 6+, the first person gets to 6+ which is a pretty darn good result for a radar.


I'm sending 10+grenade for the time being, if needed I'll change.
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Dreamwalker
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I like that idea. I say 10 radar, 10 smoke, and maybe 6 smoke. Idk.
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Dreamwalker
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Have Choco and Kirby sent something (anything) yet?

Deadline is approaching very soon.
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Kirbymuncher
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I'll do 10 + radar
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Choco
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how does grenade+6 sound?
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ArchangelBaruch
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Grenade+6 feels like a waste to me.

As said in the OP you have 2/3 chances of hitting 10 by using. And in case it doesn't work, you can retry right away.
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Nov 10 2014, 03:43 PM.
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Choco
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that still costs me a turn.
we're 3 people, having one of us play it safe isn't a waste at all
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Kirbymuncher
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Agree with Choco, one person playing safer is probably best.
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Dreamwalker
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Agree with choco
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ArchangelBaruch
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Well, guess he was right.

Time to try again.
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Dreamwalker
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Too bad we didn't think to do 7 without smoke grenade. Then we'd have this thing won.
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Dreamwalker
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Glad you guys are having some good strategy discussion here.

Whete has everyone decided to move?
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ArchangelBaruch
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I'll do the same as before.
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Choco
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so I went and calculated the statistically best number of spaces to move without an item

1 * 100 = 100
2 * 98 = 196
3 * 95 = 285
4 * 85 = 340
5 * 70 = 350
6 * 50 = 300
7 * 35 = 245
8 * 25 = 200
9 * 20 = 180
10 * 15 = 150

boy what a surprise it's 5
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Kirbymuncher
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Yeah <_<

I already sent in 5 actually
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Dreamwalker
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If you're behind though you may have to take slightly bigger risks to have a chance at getting into the lead. Maybe.
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Choco
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Dreamwalker
Nov 12 2014, 09:52 PM
If you're behind though you may have to take slightly bigger risks to have a chance at getting into the lead. Maybe.
well yeah obviously
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Kirbymuncher
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I think I might do smoke+decoy and move 10 spaces
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Kefiroth
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It's looking like Lucky or one of his pals is going to win this for sure. :(

He can use his radar for a free shot at the win this turn, and if that doesn't get him to the finish line, he sets up a decoy as a safeguard for the next attempt.
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Dreamwalker
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Enjoy the nomination, Cody, Baruch, and whichever other person Lucky decides to nominate. (I'm just guessing.)
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ArchangelBaruch
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Kirbymuncher
Nov 14 2014, 09:57 AM
I think I might do smoke+decoy and move 10 spaces
Nope.

My reasoning: lucky is going to go for Smoke + 8 or something equivalent. Which means the only way he won't win is if the raptors roll a 7.

Which is why we should act according to that.
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Choco
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someone tell me what to do pls
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ArchangelBaruch
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Roll a natural 20
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Choco
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ok
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Choco
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gonna use my radar i guess
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Kirbymuncher
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So what do we want to do here?

I don't want to force any of you to show scores and collaborate if you think it's just going to end up being fighting it out amongst the three of you, but if our scorpio alliance really does exist then we're going to want to collaborate to get the highest chance of beating taurus since all we'd need is to swap out one person
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Cody11533
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Well if anyone finds a way to exploit the game, that should definitely be shared. Otherwise, I'm not sure how much score sharing would help. The actual score would be good to share I guess, so we know whereabouts a good score will be, but is there any benefit to sharing screenshots?
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Kirbymuncher
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Well, one person could combine all the best strategies for levels into a single submission
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Kirbymuncher
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well anyways I just did a quick playthrough and have 39350... which puts me at position 22 on the all-time high score list. Still some room for improvement clearly

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Kefiroth
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I've achieved a total of 39356 after going over every level twice to optimize the score. I can supply a screenshot if you want.

Also, what high score list are you looking at? The only all-time high score list I can see is full of Polish people with impossible 999999.99 scores
Edited by Kefiroth, Nov 20 2014, 10:11 PM.
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Kefiroth
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Improved my score to 39370

Edit: up to 39394 now
Edited by Kefiroth, Nov 20 2014, 11:51 PM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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Potentially it wouldn't be that hard to use CheatEngine and give yourself the max score.
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Kefiroth
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ArchangelBaruch
Nov 21 2014, 12:10 AM
Potentially it wouldn't be that hard to use CheatEngine and give yourself the max score.
Maybe, but what good will it do us to get disqualified for cheating?
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Dreamwalker
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Too much potential cheating ambiguity. Another reason for the hosts not to do flash games in the first place.

Anyway, I'm not even going to bother playing this, I guess, since I've never been the best at flash games (except one particular version of Tower Defense from around 2006). I doubt my score could beat everyone else's, probably not even half of you.
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Cody11533
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Any suggestions other than continuing to chip away at Lucky by nominating FvP?
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ArchangelBaruch
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FvP is the best solution. Not only it hurts lucky, but there are more chances of Scorpio going along with it.
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Dreamwalker
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I'm not sure, but I personally would go with FvP as well.
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Dreamwalker
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So is this gemiscorp board actually being used? If not, I have even less faith Scorp will vote out FvP.
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Choco
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what do you think
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Dreamwalker
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I asked cause I don't know whether or not people are actually talking on it but would like to know.

But if you want my guess, it's that it's mostly not being used - that Scorpio has barely posted there at all beyond maybe a "hi" or two in the Welcome topic.
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