| Week 29 & i guess 30; Clever girl | |
|---|---|
| Tweet Topic Started: Nov 8 2014, 05:12 PM (637 Views) | |
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 8 2014, 05:12 PM Post #1 |
|
My idea of a strategy (maybe each of us can use slight variations, like 9 instead of 10?): 1) Smoke Grenade, roll 10-10-10-10. 65% chance of getting there. 2) Raptor Radar rolling 10 x4. Get as far as possible. 3) Use Meat Decoy, roll 10. If we get killed we'll be at 1x, if it somehow works (15% chance) we get to 2x. 4) Repeat. EDIT BEFORE EDIT: ...Damn, items don't regenerate after a decoy. Back to the drawing board. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 8 2014, 05:19 PM Post #2 |
|
Administrator
|
RIP... wait, who was he again? Anyway, I'll think about strategy in a bit. Right now I'm thinking about food. |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 8 2014, 05:41 PM Post #3 |
|
It's clear that doing 1) is worth it, as we can get to 10 with minimal risk. Then maybe 2) too, as the win potential is great and may as well use it (not all of us at the same time to maximize distance). And then if we get a good result with the Radar, we drop the Decoy. Ideally we want to drop the decoy somewhere after 16, where two/three low-risk rolls will get us to 30. We need low-risk rolls because, for example to roll a 10 in 2 turns: 5 + 5 = 0.7^2 = 0.49 chances of making it. 6 + 4 = 0.5 * 0.85 = 0.425 chances of making it. 7 + 3 = 0.35 * 0.95 = 0.333 chances of making it. ...our chances get worse with a high number + low number than with two medium numbers. In comparison, 5 + 5 +5 = 0.7^3 = 0.343 chances of making it. Which is what we would get by Decoying in 16. So here's my proposal: if we get to 20, we Decoy. That will leave us 11 after being sent back which is 3 + 4 + 4 = 0.95 * 0.85^2 = 0.69 chances of making it. Which isn't too bad. So yeah, for the moment it's just brainstorming but do tell what you think about this plan: 1) Smoke Grenade + 10, reroll until success. 65% chance of working. 2) Raptor Radar. 100% chance of working. 3a) If we are at 16+: roll 4-. 85%+ chance of working. 3b) If we are at 13+: roll in two times 3+4. 81%+ chance of working. 3c) If we are at 12-: roll in three times 3+3+3. 86% chance of working 4) Set decoy. Combined chance of 1-4: 56%+ of working. 5 turns at most if all goes well. 5) If at 20: 3+3+4 = 76% chances of working. If at 19: 3 + 4 +4 = 69% chances of working. Total turns: 8. Total chances of getting it on one try: 43%. As said above, better to have some variants. |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 8 2014, 05:42 PM Post #4 |
|
Also inb4 Choco says my probability calculations are wrong. |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 8 2014, 05:47 PM Post #5 |
|
From the topic:
Actually that's pretty good strategy at 16 turns/100% effective compared to my plan. Someone should do it. ...We shall call it "the Granny Dream Goes for a walk". >_________> |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 8 2014, 06:06 PM Post #6 |
![]()
|
if you expect me to say that then they're probably wrong |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 9 2014, 02:46 PM Post #7 |
|
That's some good strategy planning, but really we should all be aiming for completey different strategies imo. There's no need for all of us to get to the end, just one of us, and we can try to pick strategies so that regardless of the position of the raptor, one of us is in a good position. Overly simplistic example: I submit 4, Choco submits 6, Baruch submits 8. If the raptor gets a high number, like 9 or 10, I might not have moved far, but Baruch covers a lot of distance. If the raptor shows up earlier, I'll end up still moving forwards even while the two of you are sent back to the start. The best way to make use of our multiple players is to do something like this, because of the info we have that the raptor is the same number of squares forward for each person. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 9 2014, 02:57 PM Post #8 |
|
Administrator
|
I see. I guess this is more riggable than I thought then. Hopefully Taurus and Scorpio don't work together here. |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 9 2014, 03:13 PM Post #9 |
![]()
|
I thought it was obvious that everyone should submit a different number |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 10 2014, 12:21 AM Post #10 |
|
Administrator
|
Should someone submit a 10 just in case that works out? Like maybe you do 10, 10 with radar, and 6 with smoke grenade? I have no mathematical proof that that's the best option. It's just my idea I'm contributing. Sorry for not being more useful. |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 10 2014, 07:01 AM Post #11 |
|
10 with radar and 10 with smoke grenade seems a good combo. If the raptor gets to 6-, the second person gets to 10. If the raptor does 6+, the first person gets to 6+ which is a pretty darn good result for a radar. I'm sending 10+grenade for the time being, if needed I'll change. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 10 2014, 11:38 AM Post #12 |
|
Administrator
|
I like that idea. I say 10 radar, 10 smoke, and maybe 6 smoke. Idk. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 10 2014, 01:39 PM Post #13 |
|
Administrator
|
Have Choco and Kirby sent something (anything) yet? Deadline is approaching very soon. |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 10 2014, 02:50 PM Post #14 |
|
I'll do 10 + radar |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 10 2014, 03:08 PM Post #15 |
![]()
|
how does grenade+6 sound? |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 10 2014, 03:43 PM Post #16 |
|
Grenade+6 feels like a waste to me. As said in the OP you have 2/3 chances of hitting 10 by using. And in case it doesn't work, you can retry right away. Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Nov 10 2014, 03:43 PM.
|
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 10 2014, 04:20 PM Post #17 |
![]()
|
that still costs me a turn. we're 3 people, having one of us play it safe isn't a waste at all |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 10 2014, 04:34 PM Post #18 |
|
Agree with Choco, one person playing safer is probably best. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 10 2014, 04:45 PM Post #19 |
|
Administrator
|
Agree with choco |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 10 2014, 05:34 PM Post #20 |
|
Well, guess he was right. Time to try again. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 10 2014, 06:54 PM Post #21 |
|
Administrator
|
Too bad we didn't think to do 7 without smoke grenade. Then we'd have this thing won. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 12 2014, 11:59 AM Post #22 |
|
Administrator
|
Glad you guys are having some good strategy discussion here. Whete has everyone decided to move? |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 12 2014, 01:20 PM Post #23 |
|
I'll do the same as before. |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 12 2014, 03:34 PM Post #24 |
![]()
|
so I went and calculated the statistically best number of spaces to move without an item 1 * 100 = 100 2 * 98 = 196 3 * 95 = 285 4 * 85 = 340 5 * 70 = 350 6 * 50 = 300 7 * 35 = 245 8 * 25 = 200 9 * 20 = 180 10 * 15 = 150 boy what a surprise it's 5 |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 12 2014, 03:45 PM Post #25 |
|
Yeah <_< I already sent in 5 actually |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 12 2014, 09:52 PM Post #26 |
|
Administrator
|
If you're behind though you may have to take slightly bigger risks to have a chance at getting into the lead. Maybe. |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 13 2014, 12:26 AM Post #27 |
![]()
|
well yeah obviously |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 14 2014, 09:57 AM Post #28 |
|
I think I might do smoke+decoy and move 10 spaces |
![]() |
|
| Kefiroth | Nov 14 2014, 10:38 AM Post #29 |
![]()
|
It's looking like Lucky or one of his pals is going to win this for sure. :( He can use his radar for a free shot at the win this turn, and if that doesn't get him to the finish line, he sets up a decoy as a safeguard for the next attempt. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 14 2014, 11:42 AM Post #30 |
|
Administrator
|
Enjoy the nomination, Cody, Baruch, and whichever other person Lucky decides to nominate. (I'm just guessing.) |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 14 2014, 01:23 PM Post #31 |
|
Nope. My reasoning: lucky is going to go for Smoke + 8 or something equivalent. Which means the only way he won't win is if the raptors roll a 7. Which is why we should act according to that. |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 14 2014, 04:18 PM Post #32 |
![]()
|
someone tell me what to do pls |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 14 2014, 05:43 PM Post #33 |
|
Roll a natural 20 |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 15 2014, 05:13 AM Post #34 |
![]()
|
ok |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 15 2014, 04:37 PM Post #35 |
![]()
|
gonna use my radar i guess |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 20 2014, 07:34 PM Post #36 |
|
So what do we want to do here? I don't want to force any of you to show scores and collaborate if you think it's just going to end up being fighting it out amongst the three of you, but if our scorpio alliance really does exist then we're going to want to collaborate to get the highest chance of beating taurus since all we'd need is to swap out one person |
![]() |
|
| Cody11533 | Nov 20 2014, 08:05 PM Post #37 |
![]()
|
Well if anyone finds a way to exploit the game, that should definitely be shared. Otherwise, I'm not sure how much score sharing would help. The actual score would be good to share I guess, so we know whereabouts a good score will be, but is there any benefit to sharing screenshots? |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 20 2014, 08:08 PM Post #38 |
|
Well, one person could combine all the best strategies for levels into a single submission |
![]() |
|
| Kirbymuncher | Nov 20 2014, 08:27 PM Post #39 |
|
well anyways I just did a quick playthrough and have 39350... which puts me at position 22 on the all-time high score list. Still some room for improvement clearly |
![]() |
|
| Kefiroth | Nov 20 2014, 10:04 PM Post #40 |
![]()
|
I've achieved a total of 39356 after going over every level twice to optimize the score. I can supply a screenshot if you want. Also, what high score list are you looking at? The only all-time high score list I can see is full of Polish people with impossible 999999.99 scores Edited by Kefiroth, Nov 20 2014, 10:11 PM.
|
![]() |
|
| Kefiroth | Nov 20 2014, 10:39 PM Post #41 |
![]()
|
Improved my score to 39370 Edit: up to 39394 now Edited by Kefiroth, Nov 20 2014, 11:51 PM.
|
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 21 2014, 12:10 AM Post #42 |
|
Potentially it wouldn't be that hard to use CheatEngine and give yourself the max score. |
![]() |
|
| Kefiroth | Nov 21 2014, 01:01 AM Post #43 |
![]()
|
Maybe, but what good will it do us to get disqualified for cheating? |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 21 2014, 11:21 AM Post #44 |
|
Administrator
|
Too much potential cheating ambiguity. Another reason for the hosts not to do flash games in the first place. Anyway, I'm not even going to bother playing this, I guess, since I've never been the best at flash games (except one particular version of Tower Defense from around 2006). I doubt my score could beat everyone else's, probably not even half of you. |
![]() |
|
| Cody11533 | Nov 23 2014, 12:41 PM Post #45 |
![]()
|
Any suggestions other than continuing to chip away at Lucky by nominating FvP? |
![]() |
|
| ArchangelBaruch | Nov 23 2014, 01:01 PM Post #46 |
|
FvP is the best solution. Not only it hurts lucky, but there are more chances of Scorpio going along with it. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 23 2014, 02:10 PM Post #47 |
|
Administrator
|
I'm not sure, but I personally would go with FvP as well. |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 24 2014, 06:58 PM Post #48 |
|
Administrator
|
So is this gemiscorp board actually being used? If not, I have even less faith Scorp will vote out FvP. |
![]() |
|
| Choco | Nov 25 2014, 12:57 AM Post #49 |
![]()
|
what do you think |
![]() |
|
| Dreamwalker | Nov 25 2014, 01:26 AM Post #50 |
|
Administrator
|
I asked cause I don't know whether or not people are actually talking on it but would like to know. But if you want my guess, it's that it's mostly not being used - that Scorpio has barely posted there at all beyond maybe a "hi" or two in the Welcome topic. |
![]() |
|
| 1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous) | |
| Go to Next Page | |
| « Previous Topic · Team Gemini Discussion · Next Topic » |









5:12 PM Jul 10