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Week 33: Predict the Future! (and Gamefaqs Scavenger Hunt)
Topic Started: Jan 18 2015, 07:55 PM (719 Views)
Kefiroth
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Mayo posted...
 
Week 33 Drunken Rebel Challenge: Predict the Future

You are reading that correctly. For this week, you will be competing in the Rebel Challenge first. However, the results of it will not be revealed until after the Overlord has been declared and they have chosen their two nominees. Due to the nature of this challenge, the actual results of it cannot be known until some time after everybody has submitted, so the order of the challenges has been swapped so we don't have to wait as long for Resetti.

For this challenge, you will PM me your answers to these 9 questions. For each one, the player that comes the closest to the correct answer WITHOUT MATCHING ANOTHER PLAYER'S ANSWER will receive a point. Except in cases where the matching answer happens to also be the exact answer, players must have a unique answer to even be eligible to earn a point. If two or more answers match, but also happen to be exactly the right answer, all players with that answer will receive a point. The player with the most points wins.

In the event of a tie, a tiebreaker will be done by scoring the challenge again with just the tying players' answers being eligible for receiving a point. If a tie exists that cannot be broken this way, further tiebreaker questions will be presented.

PM your answers to la_mayonesa

1.On January 25th, 2015, what will be the Rotten Tomatoes rating for The Boy Next Door?
2. What will be the MetaCritic Metascore for Citizens of Earth by January 25, 2015? (Wii U version, in case that makes a difference. I don't know enough about MetaCritic to know if it does)
3. How many people will vote in the GameFAQs Poll of the Day on January 22nd, 2015?
4. How much will this sell for? http://www.ebay.com/itm/141544195471
5. How many views will this video have by January 22nd at 2:00 PM Arizona time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7t0EtKlQxyo
6. What will be the total number of points scored in the Miami Heat at Charlotte Bobcats game on January 21st, 2015?
7. On the episode of Jeopardy! that airs January 21st, 2015 in Phoenix, how much will the winner win? (Not counting any previous winnings if they are a returning champion)
8. According to this website, what will be the average price of a gallon of gas in South Dakota on January 24th, 2015? http://www.southdakotagasprices.com/
9. How many topics will be on Current Events on January 22nd at 2:00 PM Arizona time?


Rebel Challenge before Overlord. That's interesting.
Edited by Kefiroth, Jan 18 2015, 08:10 PM.
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Kefiroth
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I don't have much time tonight to work on figuring out reasonable ranges for most of these answers (which is okay, because there are several here who can do that much better than I could).

Here's a link for recently sold listings of Marth Amiibos that may help for #4:
http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&_nkw=Marth+Amiibo&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc
Edited by Kefiroth, Jan 18 2015, 08:06 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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This challenge (and the fact it's a Rebel challenge) is interesting, and Scorpio has the distinct advantage because they can do a 4 submission spread whereas we can only do three (edit: I'm stupid; this is rebel, so we can do 4v4). I think on some level Machete screwed Gemini here, but it's not blatant enough that I'm particularly upset.

We can probably still win this somehow.. if someone has good intuition on each of these questions.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Jan 19 2015, 12:13 AM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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Huh, for some reason I thought that since the rule change you could be Rebel twice in a row.

Oh well, nap time then.
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Dreamwalker
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Oh.... sorry, I'm mixing and matching. Yes, you can be Rebel twice in-a-row. (inb4 we lose because Baruch went to sleep early, thinking he doesn't need to do anything)
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ArchangelBaruch
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Guess I'll start with 8, seeing how oil is my thing.

8. Supposing the fall from the last 3 months continues at a stable rate, I'd say somewhere around 1.80. Maybe we should do 1.78/1.80/1.82/1.84?

1. According to WayBackMachine it was 87% on September, 91% 11 days ago and 91% today. So I guess it's safe to say it will stay there.

2. Game releases in an hour, we can wait 10ish hours for the first reviews.

3. 22nd will be Thursday.

15/01: 22364
08/01: 14841 (was a best of, doesn't count)
01/01 and 25/01 (Christmas, don't count)
18/12: 30649 (best of)
12/11: 20738
12/04: 26961
11/27 (Thanksgiving)
11/22: 27234
11/15: 23990

...You get the idea. Somewhere around 24k.

5. After 24 hours it has 3M. I remember AngryJoe saying a video gets 60% of its views the first day, then it trickles down. But this is viral so it could be wrong.

6M?

6. lolmuricansports

7. lolmuricantvshows

9. Right now there are 1760, which is around the same hour (and far from the purge monster eating time). I'd say around the same.

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ArchangelBaruch
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Also I'll be on my phone near the deadline, so I'd appreciate something copypasteable when our answers are decided please.
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ArchangelBaruch
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I just saw a video of Citizens of Earth and it feels like an Earthbound sequel. Pretty sure ratings will be high.
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Kefiroth
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Here are a few stats that may or may not be helpful:

Charlotte Hornets' and Miami Heat's average points per game and opponent's points per game this season:
(source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/)

Charlotte:
95.5 Pts/G
98.2 Opp Pts/G

Miami:
93.5 Pts/G
97.2 Opp Pts/G

---

According to http://www.j-archive.com/listseasons.php, the average total cash winnings of the daily champion over the past 5 seasons is $20,145.

(I am still in shock, but thankful, that someone actually maintains such an elaborate archive of Jeopardy...)
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Dreamwalker
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I've been at work awhile, but I'll see what I can do after I get home.

We really need to win these early comps against Scorpio (well, and the late comps against Scorpio too) in order to not squander our F4 Gemini opportunity.

inb4 "we"
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Dreamwalker
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This isn't really relevant to the challenge and I can't remember if I knew this before or not, but apparently Shock was the fake Baruch. I'd copy/paste the Steam convo where he said that, but I lost the start of the convo when I decided to restart Steam to install an update. My bad.

I do still have this part though.

andshock: i am happy i made an impact, i didnt think anyone took that pm seriously
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Kirbymuncher
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That video's almost at 6M already now, baruch <_<

Here's what I plan on submitting:

1. 91%
2. ??? (waiting on reviews)
3. 23789
4. $60.01
5. 9,123,456 (though I may change this based on view count tomorrow)
6. 189
7. $20,020
8. $1.78
9. 1906

I think the first one we might want to have someone guess 90% or 92% just in case?
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Cody11533
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Not gonna have a lot of time to help with this unfortunately. I'll be on in the morning to throw together some guesses and/or piggyback off of your guys' answers.
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Dreamwalker
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Eh, I guess just take those 9 numbers and different people should maybe make slight modifications for their submissions (since we don't want to disqualify for points by having two people say the same thing on any of the questions). I'd recommend everyone post the slight variation they're sending here, so that each person who submits can make extra sure there's no overlap (unless there are anyone where you literally know the exact answer 100% for sure somehow).

I read up a bit on some of these but didn't really have any useful insights to contribute... it could be that I waited until I was too tired though, in which case I'm sorry and I hope we win or I'll feel about 4% guilty.
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Cody11533
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1. 49% (I think I looked at the right movie here, the one with Jennifer Lopez)
2. 82
3. 24,999
4. $50
5. 9,555,555
6. 185
7. $16,500
8. $1.84
9. 1799
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Kirbymuncher
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Oh I see how I (and Baruch) got confused on #1... we were both looking at the % of people who want to see it, which means nothing about the actual rating at all.

I think I'll lower my guess to 57%.

Also reviews don't seem to have come out for #2 yet so I'll just guess that one at 76.

My final list:

1. 57%
2. 76
3. 23789
4. $60.01
5. 11,654,321
6. 189
7. $20,020
8. $1.78
9. 1906
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ArchangelBaruch
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Yaaaaay middle ground.

1. 53%
2. 83
3. 22500
4. $65
5. 10000000
6. 187
7. $18000
8. $1.80
9. 1850
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Cody11533
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Also I just want to note that this is a pretty cool challenge, although I'm frightened by how much is left to chance. Who wants to buy an amiibo at a specific price to guarantee a point?
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Kirbymuncher
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I was actually thinking about possibly manipulating answers and came up with that one as the only really realistic one (unless people want to go spam CE?). I'll pass on actually buying it though since our lowest guess is $50
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Cody11533
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I'll call in my NBA ref contact and get him to rig that game in our favor.
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Kirbymuncher
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#3 and #4 can be found here http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/570526-the-famous-five/47462663

posts #3-4-5
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Kefiroth
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I'm afraid this challenge is so easy it will likely need a tiebreaker.

Anyway, I'll have a good amount of free time this afternoon to look for these.
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ArchangelBaruch
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[x] 1. A post that contains the word "Epic" - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/795265-far-cry-4/70898841 (title)
[x] 2. A post that contains the word "Struggle" - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/739521-middle-earth-shadow-of-mordor/70808565 (title)
[x] 3. A same time post where both posts contain the same message (doesn't have to be word for word, but they should overall convey the same message) - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/69930178 (4-5)
[x] 4. A triple same time post - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/570526-the-famous-five/47462663 (3-5)
[x] 5. Three messages in a row from different users that all have been deleted by a moderator. - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/218-pro-wrestling-wwe/50311677 (232-234)
[x] 6. A post claiming that Dragon Age 2 is better than Dragon Age: Origins - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/995452-mass-effect-3/62118050 (title)
[x] 7. A post claiming that Apollo Justice is the best game in the Ace Attorney series - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/939946-phoenix-wright-ace-attorney-dual-destinies/69361934 (title)
[x] 8. A topic where it is clear that the topic creator accidentally posted in the wrong board - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/716732-destiny/70807772 (2)
[x] 9. A post that contains the entire first post of the topic in a quote - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/696959-pokemon-x/67477462 (3)
[x] 10. A post that contains a quote from the same user - 10 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000121-anime-and-manga-other-titles/70649227 (5)
[x] 11. A post claiming that the user likes mayo (the user, the condiment, the health clinic, or the month of May in Spanish) - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/997614-nintendo-3ds/70601929 (2)
[x] 12. A post claiming that the user does not like mayo (the user, the condiment, the health clinic, or the month of May in Spanish) - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/733724-grand-theft-auto-online/69173346 (4)
[x] 13. A post claiming that the user likes machete (the user, the weapon, or the movie) - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/942713-dead-island/60314211 (title)
[x] 14. A post claiming that the user does not like machete (the user, the weapon, or the movie) - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/693331-dark-souls-ii/69623741 (title + 1)
[x] 15. A post made by one of the players in TES2 that was kicked out for inactivity - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000121-anime-and-manga-other-titles/68682815 (1)
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Jan 20 2015, 01:41 PM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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10 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000121-anime-and-manga-other-titles/70649227 (5)
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ArchangelBaruch
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11 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/997614-nintendo-3ds/70601929 (2)


Debatable.
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Jan 20 2015, 11:23 AM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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12 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/733724-grand-theft-auto-online/69173346 (4)
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ArchangelBaruch
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13 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/942713-dead-island/60314211 (title)
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Kirbymuncher
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Sure that mayo chiki topic can't satisfy 11-12? :p

Are we sure nested quoting counts for 10?
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ArchangelBaruch
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14 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/693331-dark-souls-ii/69623741 (title + 1)
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Jan 20 2015, 11:31 AM.
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Cody11533
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9 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/71053856 (2)

I helped!
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ArchangelBaruch
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Cody11533
Jan 20 2015, 11:37 AM
GameFAQs Contests' topics die after 24ish hours, as it's a popular board.

I'd rather use archived posts only, just to cover our bases.
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Cody11533
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I will keep it alive!

(Feel free to find an alternative though)
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ArchangelBaruch
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15 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000121-anime-and-manga-other-titles/68682815 (1)
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ArchangelBaruch
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1 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/795265-far-cry-4/70898841 (title)
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ArchangelBaruch
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2 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/739521-middle-earth-shadow-of-mordor/70808565 (title)
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ArchangelBaruch
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7 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/939946-phoenix-wright-ace-attorney-dual-destinies/69361934 (title)

...That took a while.
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ArchangelBaruch
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6 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/995452-mass-effect-3/62118050 (title)
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ArchangelBaruch
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8 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/716732-destiny/70807772 (2)
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ArchangelBaruch
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5 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/218-pro-wrestling-wwe/50311677 (232-234)

Probably just copypasting the text. But hey, it should count.


Only thing left is to replace 9.
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ArchangelBaruch
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9 - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/572556-guardian-angel/45665363 (2)

I hope the quote system isn't considered too old.


...I'm spent.
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Jan 20 2015, 12:11 PM.
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Cody11533
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http://media2.giphy.com/media/b9aScKLxdv0Y0/giphy.gif
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ArchangelBaruch
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Now I'm fearing 3) won't be valid since the message is empty.


It could be replaced with http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/69930178 (4-5)
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Dreamwalker
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Cody11533
Jan 20 2015, 08:18 AM
Also I just want to note that this is a pretty cool challenge, although I'm frightened by how much is left to chance. Who wants to buy an amiibo at a specific price to guarantee a point?
Haha.

I was thinking about posting topics on CE at a certain time, but I never considered buying the Amiibo. You're amazing, Cody.

Oh, one minor problem though. Ebay nowadays tends to use automatic bidding (I guess I should've warned you guys about this), so people only bid up to their max bid if they need to, and they typically outbid each other in line with some bidding intervals.
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Kefiroth
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Oh, I guess I won't be needed after all :(
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Dreamwalker
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Cody11533
Jan 20 2015, 11:41 AM
I will keep it alive!

(Feel free to find an alternative though)
Alternatives are likely better, since keeping a topic alive just gives more opportunities for Scorpio to find it and use it for their submission.
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Dreamwalker
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Wait, you guys got everything while I was away (even before I got on my phone)? Wow, that REALLY is easy.

I'll double-check all these late this afternoon after work, but maybe it would be a good idea for all 4 to submit a perfect 15/15 early (once we know for sure it's 15/15). Either Mayo updates early and we get to continue with the game or Mayo says "4/8 sent" and Scorpio thinks this is really really easy and waits for the last few hours to submit... in which case we can hope they miss one due to that procrastination, if we're lucky.
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Dreamwalker
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Ok, I just reviewed them all on my phone instead, and #9 is the only one I don't like. We should find one with the new quote system unless Mayo promises to accept that specific post to you via PM for full credit.

Edit: Oh, and I agree about the change in #3. Use the smash link or whatever that was.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Jan 20 2015, 01:16 PM.
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ArchangelBaruch
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3 changed.
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Dreamwalker
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While phone-searching for a better answer than #9, I ran into a post by FvP. That topic didn't quite work, but I felt like pointing this observation out anyway.
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Dreamwalker
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/696959-pokemon-x/67477462

Post 3 should work.

Edit: Oh. I may have misread that. Are we only allowed to have the quote and nothing else in the post? *goes back to searching*

Re-Edit: No, I guess I read it fine. The pist can have other stuff in it, so long as it also includes the entire first post in a quote. So what I said is good.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Jan 20 2015, 01:43 PM.
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