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| Week 35; Oh F***! (dice game) and 25 Card Draw (poker grid) | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Mar 1 2015, 10:11 PM (448 Views) | |
| Kefiroth | Mar 1 2015, 10:11 PM Post #1 |
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Deadline for turn 1 moves: http://goo.gl/BNEGZ0 Edited by Kefiroth, Mar 1 2015, 10:11 PM.
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 1 2015, 10:14 PM Post #2 |
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The deadline is only 36 hours this week, not 48. So there's not quite as much time to submit as usual. |
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| Kefiroth | Mar 1 2015, 10:49 PM Post #3 |
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While I am quite familiar with this game, in the version I am familiar with, busting (or rather "Oh F***!"-ing), just means you lose any points earned that turn and your turn ends (The game is won when a player reaches a certain target score first, such as 10,000 for example). The fact that busting means elimination in this abbreviated version of the game makes the stakes for each decision much higher; the power-ups add a new dimension to it as well. I will leave the calculating of probabilities to the more mathematically inclined among us, but I think we should be able take advantage of our superior numbers by spreading out actions between our players when the situation calls for it in risky situations. Also, due to the nature of this game, the chance for a tiebreaker is relatively high. I can't offer any input as to what a good tiebreaker answer might be though. Edited by Kefiroth, Mar 1 2015, 10:49 PM.
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 1 2015, 11:21 PM Post #4 |
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In Farkle there are two main strategies: 1) Bank as little dice as possible to maximize the chances of getting 3 of a kind. 2) Bank everything instantly, which tends to be worse than 1) except in the not-so-rare case where the second roll is a bust (1 in 30ish?). We are 4, so 3 of us should get a different scoring die (2,3,4) then the other one the full set (2 + 3 + 4). The last person should definitely use a shield. From experience rolling 3 dice means a 40% chance of bust. Also with one reroll and guards we can easily get in the 1000-1500. Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Mar 1 2015, 11:55 PM.
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 2 2015, 12:31 AM Post #5 |
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I've never played this game, but it looks like Kefi and Baruch are familiar with a variant of it. And I know Kirby and Choco have math ability. So I may sit the strategizing out this challenge, but I'll keep watch here casually. Let me know if you need me for something. |
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| Choco | Mar 2 2015, 07:05 AM Post #6 |
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I don't understand what you're saying here Edited by Choco, Mar 2 2015, 07:06 AM.
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 2 2015, 08:10 AM Post #7 |
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A) Get die 2 B) Get die 3 C) Get die 4 D) Get dice 2+3+4 and use power thingie This protects us in case the next die roll is something like 2,2,3,4,6,6. That way everyone dies except D). Also Mayo forgot the "three pair" combo, which is worth 600 IIRC. |
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| Kirbymuncher | Mar 2 2015, 08:17 AM Post #8 |
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approximate chance of surviving based on number of dice, if anyone cares: 6 dice: 97% 5 dice: 92% 4 dice: 84% 3 dice: 72% 2 dice: 55% 1 dice: 33% |
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| Choco | Mar 2 2015, 08:39 AM Post #9 |
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can you please explain this to me like i'm an idiot also why is the 2nd main strategy better "in the not-so-rare case where the second roll is a bust" |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 2 2015, 12:42 PM Post #10 |
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A) scores die 2 (AKA a 1, scoring 100 points), chooses to continue. Next round, he'll look at dice 1,3,4,5,6. The objective here is to score the minimum amount of dice so that the chances of getting good stuff next round (444 or higher) are better. In regular Farkle you need 300 points before stopping playing, so it is generally considered better to keep the ones and reroll the fives (unless there is only one five available). Here there isn't such a rule but it's still more interesting pointswise. So yeah, even though in this round we can score 250 points easily, it's in our best interest not to do so, since it limits the amounts of points you get in the next round. By going three-way with A), B) and C) we get to watch as many different combinations of dice as possible in Round 2. For example, let's say I'm A) and you are D). I score die 2 (100 points) and you score dice 2-3-4 (250 points). Then Round 2 rolls like this: 2-4-6-6-6-6 I get a whooping 1200 extra points, you get game over. However, let's say that you used a Shield. I won't, since the chances of not getting a single 1 or 5 in 5 dice is very low (13%, plus combos). However, if the roll looks like this: 2-2-3-4-6-6 It's very rare, but we would both game over. Only you wouldn't since you used a Shield, so you'd win by default. Thus D) + Guard is a bad strategy, but it's a backup plan in case things roll badly. In can only happen in 3% of cases, but it can happen. It has happened to me multiple times playing this game incidentally. BTW, I'll go ahead and send A). I'll estimate my final score 2000. Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Mar 2 2015, 12:45 PM.
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| Choco | Mar 2 2015, 01:18 PM Post #11 |
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I think you got this part wrong. It seems like no matter which dice a player picks, the dice relevant to him in the next update will be the leftmost ones. |
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| Choco | Mar 2 2015, 01:19 PM Post #12 |
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But thank you for the explanation. |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 2 2015, 01:56 PM Post #13 |
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EDIT: Nevermind all that, I just read that one little sentence about the leftmost die. So yeah, this means A-B are the same, C is useless so it should switch to 1 and we keep D. Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Mar 2 2015, 02:09 PM.
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 2 2015, 03:02 PM Post #14 |
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Choco looks different... |
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| Choco | Mar 2 2015, 03:16 PM Post #15 |
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I AM SO PRETTY |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 2 2015, 05:11 PM Post #16 |
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I am not at all familiar with this game so I'll default to you guys who know what's going on. Is the plan to have three people bank one of 1's for 100 and then the fourth person bank 1, 1, and 5 and use a shield? Also, your new avatar is nice Choco. Typo correction courtesy of Dream Thanks Dream Edited by Cody11533, Mar 2 2015, 07:04 PM.
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| Kirbymuncher | Mar 2 2015, 05:16 PM Post #17 |
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Yeah, that's the plan. Anyone specifically want to be the shield user? |
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| Kefiroth | Mar 2 2015, 06:39 PM Post #18 |
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B-b-but...it's not excellent anymore. :( |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 2 2015, 07:07 PM Post #19 |
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I will take a 1 and put my tiebreaker at 1200. |
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| Kirbymuncher | Mar 2 2015, 07:26 PM Post #20 |
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mod abuse Anyways I'm gonna take the three dice and use a shield, and guess tiebreaker at 1500 |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 2 2015, 11:12 PM Post #21 |
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Oh, I probably should've said this several hours ago, but Lucky says he's willing to help Gemini if we need anything from him. "I don't remember if I actually mentioned that I am on board with supporting gemini if they need anything (since last time we discussed this mannequin was still alive, and I didn't want the bait that, while he works with scorpio, if he gets voted out gemini gets me. I haven't been such a fan of the last few challenges (seems more brute-force than strategic, and their guess is as good as mine), but if the right challenge comes up I still hope to be of use." Of course we shouldn't trust him with sensitive information, but there's some potential he could be useful for some challenge. Edited by Dreamwalker, Mar 2 2015, 11:13 PM.
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 3 2015, 11:57 AM Post #22 |
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So I guess one of the rounds ended and another began. How are we doing? |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 3 2015, 02:10 PM Post #23 |
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We all get one 5. Yaaay. I'm wondering if Kirby should Shield or Reroll. I'd say Shield, because you clearing two dice is not that rare. |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 4 2015, 08:05 AM Post #24 |
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Kirby is the only one who should use a shield, right? |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 4 2015, 08:49 AM Post #25 |
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Yes. I don't fear for our safety. |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 4 2015, 09:08 AM Post #26 |
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Alright, I sent in my move. |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 4 2015, 10:40 AM Post #27 |
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Only 11 hours left. |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 4 2015, 09:49 PM Post #28 |
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So... since I have no idea how to interpret the new rolls (mostly because I've been too busy dealing with IRL stuff), are they good or bad for Gemini? |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 4 2015, 11:08 PM Post #29 |
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They are meh. Which is good since it avoids huge scoring surprises.
Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Mar 4 2015, 11:08 PM.
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| Kirbymuncher | Mar 5 2015, 08:39 AM Post #30 |
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I'm gonna have 1 die left. Use my reroll, or my last shield? Thinking reroll but just want to check. I don't think I'm gonna have a very good score :/ |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 5 2015, 01:00 PM Post #31 |
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Reroll. And yeah, your score is kinda sucking because the rolls have been very average. But in this game things can go wrong very fast, so if you manage to secure a low score it may be enough. For us three: get the one, then one of us should Guard just in case. I volunteer. EDIT: I really hope Scorpio isn't going YOLO through this, because it is a strategy that would work so far. Edited by ArchangelBaruch, Mar 5 2015, 01:01 PM.
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 5 2015, 06:52 PM Post #32 |
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I'm just a little worried about how little you guys are talking strategy. >_> |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 6 2015, 08:36 PM Post #33 |
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Should Choco or I use a shield here, or is 2 dice when we should refresh our dice? |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 7 2015, 01:55 AM Post #34 |
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Yeah, 2 dice makes impossible 111 to 666, so it's a good moment to reset. Maybe 2 resets, 1 block to diversify strategies. |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 7 2015, 07:12 AM Post #35 |
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Alright, I'll use a shield this round, and you and Choco can reset your dice. |
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| Choco | Mar 7 2015, 02:21 PM Post #36 |
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so take the 1 + use Roll All? |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 7 2015, 04:11 PM Post #37 |
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Yes. |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 8 2015, 01:26 PM Post #38 |
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Yay, another mediocre roll. Rinse and repeat. |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 8 2015, 04:55 PM Post #39 |
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Any idea how much longer this will last? |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 8 2015, 05:12 PM Post #40 |
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At this point I should reroll, correct? I assume so, but I want to make sure I understand what I'm doing. |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 8 2015, 11:04 PM Post #41 |
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Yes. |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 9 2015, 11:59 AM Post #42 |
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FFS this is sad. Kirby, how are you doing? |
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| Kirbymuncher | Mar 9 2015, 12:39 PM Post #43 |
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Still have 1 shield left, either 2 or 3 dice after this one (lost track, will go back and count) I feel like my playing safe near the start mostly ended up not paying off though so I'm not expecting to win regardless of what I do |
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| Cody11533 | Mar 9 2015, 01:08 PM Post #44 |
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These dice rolls have been pretty underwhelming. We almost got a straight there, but nope. Once we run out of shields, when should we cash in? Kirby's probably closest to this, right? |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 9 2015, 02:04 PM Post #45 |
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I hope they're underwhelming for Scorpio too then. |
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| ArchangelBaruch | Mar 9 2015, 02:31 PM Post #46 |
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Kirby should Shield and cash the next one. One of us can risk it, but the rest should also play it safe. But it's infuriating how we could have just used no shields and get the same result. |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 9 2015, 11:51 PM Post #47 |
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So Mayo asked me a question about the jury - did he or Machete ever say what the Jury would be doing? I pulled up my archive and checked for him - and yes, Machete did say that the Jury would vote for a winner from the Final Two in the end. This disappointed Mayo somewhat because he was considering having a final challenge in which the jury members get to help out the final two in some way. Various reality shows do something like this, so it's not unprecedented. But since Machete already said the Jury will just be voting, Mayo will abide by that and discard his other plans - or at least transform them into some other comp (which doesn't involve jury members helping). Mayo initially told me to keep his question to me and this other correspondence secret, but after I showed him the Machete post from my archives and Mayo discarded his "final challenge" idea he told me I could tell Gemini if I want. More importantly, I learned through this for certain that Mayo has not been keeping archives (seriously??? yes, seriously, the hosts didn't archive), so the chances of a trivia challenge are basically nil. Good thing I didn't waste my time combing through the archives for useful trivia, which I probably would've done if I were still playing in the game as an individual myself. |
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| Choco | Mar 10 2015, 02:00 PM Post #48 |
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Should I only take the 1 or also the 5? Should I shield? |
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| Kirbymuncher | Mar 10 2015, 05:56 PM Post #49 |
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Well I wasn't expecting that I've totally lost track of who gets to vote and who does not in various situations so before accidentally doing anything stupid (even though I'm like 99% sure): the best way to try and eliminate a scorpio is to nominate both of them here, right? |
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| Dreamwalker | Mar 10 2015, 07:43 PM Post #50 |
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Yes. I see no reason not to nominate Auron and Swiftblade. Well, drama, I guess. If you nominated Gemini it would add a lot of drama to the game. But that's really a terrible reason so don't do that. |
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