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Week 36: Indian Poker Showdown
Topic Started: Mar 18 2015, 06:15 PM (311 Views)
Kefiroth
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Cody
 
We really do need to make sure we win the next 2 challenges. Hopefully they aren't luck-based.


Too bad!

Mayo
 
Week 36 Illuminati Overlord Challenge: Indian Poker Showdown

As the previous Overlord, kirby will not be participating in this challenge. For this challenge, you will be split into two groups. The winner in each group will then compete against each other to determine the Overlord.

Baruch vs Choco

Auron vs Cody


You will each be given 25 chips and a deck of 20 cards. Each card contains a number from 1-10, and for each number there are 2 cards that contain it.

At the start of each round, both players will put in 1 chip as an ante. I will then PM each player what the top card of their opponent's deck is. The lead player may then bet any amount of the chips they have.

The second player may then call the bet (put in the same amount of chips to the pot), raise the bet (put more chips into the pot), or fold (give up and let the other player take all the chips in the pot). If the second player raises, the lead player must also call, raise, or fold. This continues until one player either calls or folds.

The cards will then be revealed. This happens regardless of whether or not a player has folded. If nobody has folded, the player holding the card with the highest number takes all the chips in the pot. If both players have the same number on their card, all of the chips will be used as the ante for the next round. (In this case, players will not be required to throw in an extra chip for an ante)

If one of the players folded, the chips automatically go to the other player. If the top card on the deck of the folding player is a 10, they will also lose an additional 10 chips.

After each round, the leading player will switch.

You cannot bet more chips than either you or your opponent have. If you attempt to do so, it will be assumed that you are betting the maximum that is allowed.

The game ends when either one player has all 50 chips, or when 20 rounds have ended. In the event that 20 rounds have ended, the player with the highest chip count wins. In the event that both players have 25 chips after 20 rounds, the winner will be whoever had the most chips after 19 rounds.

Each game will happen independently of each other, and one can progress faster than the other. I'm not going to bother making deadlines for this challenge. Just don't take too long to make a move. If it becomes an issue, I'll start adding them.


Game One - Round One
Baruch: 24 chips
Choco: 24 chips
Pot: 2 chips
Baruch is leading player and must make a bet

Game Two - Round One
Auron: 24 chips
Cody: 24 chips
Pot: 2 chips
Auron is leading player and must make a bet

Card PMs will be sent out shortly. I'd recommend waiting until then before making a bet >_>
Edited by Kefiroth, Mar 18 2015, 06:17 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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Luck-based, but we've got two chances to beat Auron.

By the time Cody is done with his game with Auron, maybe I can come up with some kind of mathematically awesome strategy for Baruch or Choco to use against Auron if Auron's still alive. If Auron's not still alive, then awesome job, Cody.
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Cody11533
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I'll look at this tomorrow, but does anyone have any experience with this game and/or card counting? Either might come in handy.
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Choco
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GET READY TO GET YOUR SHIT #REKT BARUCH

YOU ARE SO FUCKING DEAD
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Dreamwalker
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Another way of looking at "only Auron is left" is "we're guaranteed to have a Gemini in the Final Two".
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ArchangelBaruch
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OH SCHEISSE
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Dreamwalker
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Are you guys going to finish this off in one hand? (Choco and Baruch)
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Dreamwalker
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I just realized that since this is luck-based, the matched pairs of cards could theoretically end up like this:

1v2
1v2
2v3
2v3
3v4
3v4
4v5
4v5
5v6
5v6
6v7
6v7
7v8
7v8
8v9
8v9
9v10
9v10
10v1
10v1

Meaning in a worst-case scenario someone could have the worse hand 90% of the time. You'd have to be some insane strategist to overcome that extreme bad draw.
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Choco
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That's not really that bad considering how safe a person feels plays the biggest role. They can fold and the other player gets the coins regardless of what the cards are
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Dreamwalker
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But it is bad because when it finally comes down to reveal (assuming not ALL hands end merely with folding) one person may lose 90% of the time.
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ArchangelBaruch
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This way, in case auron survives we get to send someone competent against him.
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Dreamwalker
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LOL baruch.


And unfortunately Cody is losing right now, though by a margin small enough that he might make it up.
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Cody11533
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Calm down Dream. Unless Auron or I go all-in, our match will last quite a while longer.
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Cody11533
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So, if it comes to it, at what point would you guys think it is a good ideas for me to go all in? How good would my odds have to be to do it comfortably?
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ArchangelBaruch
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Well, you shouldn't if your opponent has a 5...
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Dreamwalker
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At this point Auron has enough of a lead that he'd be smart to fold every hand unless he sees you have a 1-2. Our best hope is that these next couple rounds he has a 10 while you have a 4+ and Auron folds his hand, thus getting the penalty.

Without that, Auron is basically guaranteed to keep you in a losing position.
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Dreamwalker
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And this may be a horrible strategy idea but if you see Auron has a 10, going all-in might make his chance of folding the greatest. Then again, it'll also be a sure loss if he calls you. But if he does anything other than fold a 10, I think you've lost anyway. You can't afford to have him gain a pot of 2 with either of his 10s.
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Dreamwalker
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With Auron knowing his 2 1s are gone now, he might find it more likely you're going all-in because he has a 10 than because he has a low number, unfortunately.

I think he's getting lucky.

Note that I'm not saying it's JUST luck. He might be the better player or he might not. I'm just saying luck that is benefiting him is involved.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Mar 21 2015, 04:04 PM.
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Cody11533
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Auron has definitely been lucky thus far. Every hand I would have been able to win he folded right away, and both times he had a 1.
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Dreamwalker
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Finally he got unlucky... but he is definitely running out of low numbers, which I believe makes him much less likely to fold.

You're probably doing this already, but it would be a good idea to write down what numbers you and Auron have left. And if you're good enough at it (I'm not), try to get into Auron's head and figure out how he strategizes and speaks and stuff when he sees you have different qualities of hands. Maybe you can pull out a win. If not, at least Auron didn't get much data on how Choco plays (due to Baruch's speedy loss) and so maybe Choco has the informational advantage against Auron there.
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Cody11533
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Yeah, I've been keeping track of the numbers. At this point, it would be best for me to try and win it quickly, since his crappy numbers are going fast. Even if I lose, at least we'll know how he plays for the most part.
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Dreamwalker
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I'm not sure if it'll help even 1%, but (in my recent post in the TES2 topic) I tried to put the idea into Auron's head that his cards might be (almost) arranged from least to greatest. This could make him slightly more likely to worry his next card is a 3-4 than the probability truly would dictate, which would make him more likely to fold to you. And hopefully that could either mean you score a bunch of points or Auron folds a 10.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Mar 24 2015, 01:25 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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Too bad Auron never folds when he has the _better_ hand.

Anyway, I (mostly) trust in cody. He can figure out how best to win this.
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Dreamwalker
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Awaiting fold results again. Man, he's so reckless. One of these days he's going to fold a 10, hopefully.
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Cody11533
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Dreamwalker
Mar 25 2015, 01:52 PM
Awaiting fold results again. Man, he's so reckless. One of these days he's going to fold a 10, hopefully.
Not this turn though! He had a 5.
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Cody11533
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I'm living dangerously with those blind folds, but he had a 9 so my odds were poor. I feel like the first person to get a 10 is gonna lose.

On a more astute note, I think his constant folding is more conservative than aggressive. Whenever I have a decent card, he folds off the bat. If I lose, that's something to keep in mind next round.
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Dreamwalker
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He might fold when you have like a 5-9 and be aggressive when you have a 1-4 or 10.

Or who knows.
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Cody11533
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OK Choco, it is your time to shine. I weakened him for you.
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Cody11533
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But seriously, if we put our heads together, we should be able to beat him.
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Dreamwalker
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Or if you just put a horse and a chocobo head together, you could make a great profile pic for Choco.
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Choco
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Cody11533
Mar 27 2015, 08:41 PM
OK Choco, it is your time to shine. I weakened him for you.
I don't think that's how it works
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ArchangelBaruch
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What do you mean that's not how it works? You should be now at full energy after my quick kill.
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Dreamwalker
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Auron has used the cards: 1, 9, 4, 6, 8, 5, 3, 10
Choco has used the cards: 3, 4, 8, 2, 9, 6, 8, 10

Cards Remaining (Auron): 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 9, 10
Cards Remaining (Choco): 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 9, 10

So not only is Choco behind but he also has slightly worse numbers. However, if he can get Auron to fold a 10 and if Choco wins a different bet using his own 10 then Choco can still win here. We can hope.
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Dreamwalker
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I wonder if Choco sees Auron's next card is a 1 (or maybe even a 2) and Choco bets 10 if Auron will think Choco is just trying to dupe him into thinking he has a 10 and folding and so Auron would call (and then lose because he has a 1).
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ArchangelBaruch
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auron doesn't need to raise anymore. There are 11 rounds left and he's leading by 2x7 points, so as long as he wins 3 minimum bets (of which there are Choco's 2 ones) he's good.

So yeah, unless he catches auron folding a 10 we are screwed.
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Choco
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I'm sorry, guys
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ArchangelBaruch
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Don't worry, you are playing fine.

Way better than me at least.
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Cody11533
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It's not over Choco, you just need a bit of luck to go your way. You'll definitely need to try and get him to fold his last 10.

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Dreamwalker
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It's pretty over now though. I mean not technically. But it's close to over.

It will be sad to not be able to engage in Rebel comp discussion this week, since Gemini will have to play against each other. :(

We could still talk Overlord next week though, assuming the goal is still to get Auron out.
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Cody11533
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I have to say, Auron has gotten extremely lucky with his numbers. He's won most of the turns that were close or had a lot riding on them.
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Choco
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WTF was he thinking folding when I had a 1? If he just folds >>everything<<, I'm gonna win.
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Dreamwalker
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Are you sure he didn't do some math and determine that folding everything results in him still winning?

I need to check up on the numbers again.
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Dreamwalker
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Auron has used the cards: 1, 9, 4, 6, 8, 5, 3, 10, 5, 7, 2, 1, 4, 2
Choco has used the cards: 3, 4, 8, 2, 9, 6, 8, 10, 4, 7, 1, 6, 1, 5

Cards Remaining (Auron): 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Cards Remaining (Choco): 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10

Immediately before the pot for Round 15 was formed, Choco had 12 chips and Auron had 38 chips. If Auron keeps folding, that will mean he folds 5 more non-10s and 1 10. That's 5+11=16 chips that move from Auron to Choco.

Choco's Final Score would be 12+16=28.
Auron's Final Score would be 38-16=22. (although I didn't really need to calculate that, since I already know 28 > 50/2)

So yeah, Choco's right. But is Auron really dumb enough to do that?

In hopes that he is, maybe Choco should be sure to let Auron always make a move. In other words, don't fold a hand before Auron gets the chance to fold.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Apr 1 2015, 11:12 AM.
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Choco
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I probably wasn't gonna fold anyway
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Dreamwalker
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Mayo might not have contacted you and Auron about that April Fools thing, but it just hit me that maybe Auron is doing April Fools all on his own.
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Dreamwalker
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Now that Auron didn't fold, I'm sure he had his 10.
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Dreamwalker
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Well, he didn't have a 10, but he did win.

RIP next Gemini
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