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Night 2
Topic Started: May 22 2013, 12:16 AM (81 Views)
Thundawave
Regine
[ * ]
Austin, show Isaak your ways! Isaak, learn from your OH GREAT ONE!
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Mihael Keehl
Alive and Well
[ * ]
Alrighty.

Even though I'm only a Citizen, I'm glad you chose me as your mentor. It's humbling because you value me highly enough that I would be your first option on Night 1. I like how I have somebody reasonable to talk with about what unfolded over the previous Day. I really dislike Chris because he's so smug about everything and he acts like his way is the only correct way.

Good riddance that Nic Cage is gone. He's terrible at the game, quiet frankly, and we only removed dead weight by lynching him. I'm not sure why he refused to claim Citizen, though. His whole defense really confused me. He sort of resorted to ad hominem attacks and never really did much to help plead his case. Had he said that he was a Citzen, we probably could have decided to lynch somebody else and obtain even more information.

His post at the end was cute, but I don't think anyone will seriously consider lynching me. It's funny because "reluctance to hear arguments" totally describes Chris.

On that matter, I think I will be avoided by the Mafia and Serial Killer tonight, unless somebody really dislikes me. They probably think that I can be lynched on a whim, given that I've had a little bit of pushback from Vapo and Nic Cage.

Despite that, I think I've played a solid game so far. The Town is really disorganized and lost, so somebody like me had to guide them so that we could actually do something.

What are your thoughts about what unfolded today? Who is suspicious, in your book?

To Regine: I don't think it's really fair to us if you decide to end the Night when all actions have been submitted. It limits the usefulness of this chat because Isaak might not be able to respond to my posts if the Night ends quickly.
Edited by Mihael Keehl, May 22 2013, 12:49 AM.
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Thom Yorke
The Imaginary Belgian
[ * ]
+ my exams are getting closer so my time to play this game is limited. =P

I'm glad I chose a Citizen, hardly any pressure that way. <3

The loss of a citizen like Nic Cage means nothing really. Especially because I'm pretty much a hidden citizen myself so we've hardly lost numbers and as you said, Nic Cage is ridiculously useless in this game at times.

I hate how Town is so reluctant to lynch. Especially because of Chris. Sometimes we'd be better off without him honestly.

Beast Boy/Wotter is obviously suspicious since she's done nothing at all and that swift vote was ridiculous. Of course, she's also pretty bad at mafia, but that shouldn't be an excuse.

I'd be surprised if either Chris, Mark or Bluejay make it through tonight or the next night. It's unfair to go by their previous mafia games, but they're the more experienced players. Of course, experienced =/= good, Chris is the perfect example.

We absolutely had to lynch though, otherwise we'd get nowhere at all and be stuck in the same boat the next day. It's early days for any conclusions yet though.

Who are you suspicious of? And in the event you're a potential target to get lynched, how should we play? Should I try and defend you or leave you by yourself saving my own skin?
Edited by Thom Yorke, May 22 2013, 08:04 AM.
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Mihael Keehl
Alive and Well
[ * ]
Unconfirmed Roles Remaining

Confirmed Roles Remaining

Dead People


I thought it might be useful to have these lists as references. Right now, there's 5 Scum, 7 Town, 1 Benign, and 13 total players who have not been accounted for. There is a 38.6% that any single player out of the 13 is Scum.

There is a 9.09% chance that the Mafia will hit the Serial Killer, a 28.57% chance that the Serial Killer will hit a Mafia member including the Godfather, and a 21.43% chance that the Serial Killer will actually kill a Mafia member.

Tomorrow, it's going to be a lot more clear which person is on what side. Assuming that we survive, two more Town members die, and the Doctor does not choose the correct person, there will be 11 people who have not been accounted for. There will be a 45.45~% that any single player out of the 11 is Scum. This is something that we he have to take advantage of. If we choose to put pressure on somebody random, there is a great possibility that person will be Scum.

Now, on to my opinion on everybody.

Who I think is Town:
Bluejay
TheWhymsicalOne
Moon Moon
Zallow
GMasterShuboltz

Who I am unsure of:
Kyogre
Tiamo

Bandwagoners (High Possibility of Scum)
Primal Dialga
Beast Boy
Jesskat
RukuTehWolf
Kaity
:::...Quil...:::

Before I went to sleep yesterday, I noticed something. If you look at the list of people who voted for Nic Cage, there are exactly 7 people who voted for him that does not include you and me. There are also exactly 7 Town members with unknown identities. The probability that those 7 people are the same ones with unconfirmed Town roles is incredibly unlikely. I haven't been able to work out the numbers, but suffice to say, at least 1 out of those 7 people are Scum. Possibly more.

I also noticed that as soon as Mark voted for Nic Cage, a huge swarm of people started to vote for him in rapid succession. Primal D gave a lynch vote with explaining his reasoning, and was pretty much invisible throughout the Day. Mark pointed this out, but quickly dismissed his suspiciousness on account of the fact that he was new. This seemed odd to me. I have a feeling that if Primal D flips Scum, Mark will also be Scum. Mark wants to look like he's doing his due diligence, but also doesn't want to put a teammate on blast. The new excuse overrides suspiciousness, which can sometimes be true, but I don't think it completely exonerates Primal D.

Chris is another story. I reason that him and Mark are either both Town, or one of them is Scum. Chris' love affair with not lynching is really odd, but it doesn't tell me anything about his faction. It wouldn't make any sense for him to pull all of his shenanigans yesterday if he were Scum, since Scum wants Town members to die as quickly as possible. The thing is, this is Chris we're talking about. I have no idea how his mind works, and I have a feeling he would post the same exact crap regardless of his role. Mark is also very difficult to read, as his gameplay is more or less consistent with every game I've seem him play in. We should keep a careful eye on both of them.

I have a strong feeling that Vapo is Town now that Nic Cage has been revealed to be Town. He's honestly one of the worst players I have ever seen, but I don't think that outburst occurs if he is Scum. I don't know. Wottar had an outburt a few games ago, and she turned out to be Scum. I don't think 11 year olds should be playing this game.

The other people I have listed as being Town did not vote yesterday, but merely game their opinion every step of the way. Depending on the skillset of Scum, it's counterproductive not to vote because they want to kill as many people as possible. These guys strike me as careful and have not shown sides of suspiciousness. Whenever I played as Scum, I always gave my opinion every step of the way, but I would always vote when it became clear that a certain person was suspicious. Vincent is sort of the odd man out on that list, but it's pretty hard to read him when he doesn't post a lot.

Out of the people I have listed as being a bandwagoner and suspicious, I have ordered them from who is most on my radar to who is least on my radar. Kaity did contradict herself, as pointed out by TWO, but I don't know if that necessarily means that she is guilty. Beast Boy cast the deciding vote on Nic Cage, and her posts have generally been shit and unmemorable. We should definitely watch out for her. Jess and Luke are your typical bandwagoners. They appear active, vote when it comes down to the wire, and reiterates or paraphrase opinions from everybody else. Quil is sort of eh to me. He doesn't stand out to me at all.

Out of the people left, I feel like Chris, Mark, Bluejay, and David have the greatest possibility of dying. If all of them survive, I think one or more of them has to be Scum. There's no other way. I'm not going to be killed because I can be lynched for being overly aggressive. Vapo won't be killed because he's an angry little kid. The bandwagoners won't be killed because they're either Scum or vote fodder. You'd have to think that at least one of those players dies. I don't see any other way.

Now, if there is some pushback or animosity against me tomorrow, I don't think it would be wise for you to stick up for me. They can very easily use that as an excuse for Scum trying to stick up for his buddy. I also didn't mention the Student notification yesterday, which was imperative for me to keep a secret. Anything that I reveal to the Town is also revealed to Scum. Scum would obviously want to go after me because it means that I am able to talk to somebody about the Day without their knowledge or consent. It doesn't make any sense for the Town to know about it, as it can only ever be used against us.

I might try something tomorrow. I might claim a role that would give me the authority and power to lynch anyone that I please. The reasoning for this is simple. Our survivability in this game is extremely limited. I may not get another chance to execute this strategy, as I might be dead by Night 3. Also, I need the ability to kill somebody who I suspect is suspicious, but have no actual evidence to back up my claim.

Nobody is going to listen to me if I think a player "might be" Scum. In fact, it'll work against me. If I claim Tracker and said that that player visited the dead person last Night, nobody is going to question me. Remember that 45.45~% I talked about earlier? Even if it's completely random, there's a good chance that randomly picking a player will turn up Scum. If my accusation is correct, then I'm guaranteed to have Doctor protection if the Doctor isn't already dead. It could also horribly backfire, but it might be a risk that I would be willing to take.

It'll become much more clear by tomorrow if I should execute this strategy or not. It might not even be necessary if the Town gets their act together. Either way, I think Beast Boy and Primal D are the main suspects for now. We just need to eyeball the people who actually know what they're doing. They're easily the most dangerous people.
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