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| Better than expected. | |
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| Topic Started: Sep 30 2014, 05:10 PM (121 Views) | |
| RJD | Sep 30 2014, 05:10 PM Post #1 |
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Prudence and Thrift
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GDP It appears that the economy returned to it's pre-crash level sometime in early 2013. |
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| Deleted User | Sep 30 2014, 05:13 PM Post #2 |
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This must be very worrying for Mr Miilband Expect a few 'yes but.......'. |
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| papasmurf | Sep 30 2014, 05:46 PM Post #3 |
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Senior Member
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Only because prostitution and drug dealing have been added to the figures. (I really wish that was a joke.) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29422267 30 September 2014 Last updated at 11:27 UK economy grew 0.9% in second quarter, says ONS The figures from the ONS include a new methodology for calculating gross domestic product (GDP). The new measure includes factors such as spending on research and development, as well as the economic contribution made by drug dealers and prostitutes. |
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| krugerman | Sep 30 2014, 05:52 PM Post #4 |
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Regular Member
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No - it s not worrying for Milliband, the painfully slow economic recovery dosent seem to be impacting very much on the opinion polls. ________________________________ Labour is heading for a “comfortable majority” at the UK general election as the Conservatives have lost a third of their support and are only attracting a small number of new voters, polling by former Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft has suggested. ( The Guardian: 28th Sept 2014 ) Ashcroft, deputy chairman of the Conservative party from 2005 until 2010, said all the “waffle” from Conservative party central office about Europe and building new homes for first time-buyers would not do any good http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/28/labour-comfortable-victory-lord-ashcroft |
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| Deleted User | Sep 30 2014, 05:57 PM Post #5 |
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We are a long way away from the GE. Ashcroft is not one who can complain about ' waffle' either. That seems to be all that he and the Lib dems have to offer. |
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| Steve K | Sep 30 2014, 06:05 PM Post #6 |
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Once and future cynic
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Yes that triple dip recession the two Eds (and the odd poster here) crowed so much about turned out to be a single dip and on their watch. But then the two Eds would have struggled anyway to understand the concept of a number more complicated than 2 Edited by Steve K, Sep 30 2014, 06:08 PM.
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| Affa | Sep 30 2014, 06:09 PM Post #7 |
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Senior Member
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The longest period of recession excluding wars on record. 4 years wasted! Awful for a Chancellor who promised to restore the economy 'faster' and instead delivered stagnation. |
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| Steve K | Sep 30 2014, 06:19 PM Post #8 |
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Once and future cynic
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yes Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling should hang their heads in shame for the mess they left in 2010 having emptied the coffers and more funding idiot levels of benefits |
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| krugerman | Sep 30 2014, 06:31 PM Post #9 |
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Regular Member
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Well there s a very different interpretation of history The recession of 2008 hit the UK in the third quarter of 2008, and the UK emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009, growth then accelerated, and was at 0.7% in May 2010. After the Tories and the "yellow Tories" came to power, growth then slipped back, and we came within a whisker of a second recession ( the double dip ) in early 2012, with contraction in quarter 4 in 2011, 0 growth in quarter 1 2012, and contraction again in quarter 2 2012. Growth never surpassed the May 2010 level until this time last year - well over three years after coming to power. |
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| Affa | Sep 30 2014, 06:42 PM Post #10 |
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Senior Member
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'Smoke & Mirrors'. He majestically avoided recording that the Deficit actually got wider in 2012-13 by ordering ministers to not pay the bills in the final month. To postpone spending until the next financial year - a saving of £10.9bn and so was able to show a reduction of £100ml in the deficit, instead of an increase in the deficit of £10.8bn. You'll hear me call Osborne all sorts of nasty things, but you will not read me saying he is stupid. I reserve that for Ed Balls. |
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| Affa | Sep 30 2014, 06:57 PM Post #11 |
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Senior Member
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The two two mentioned did not promise a miracle, Osborne did, and he couldn't deliver. I'm not ready to believe ha can deliver on any of his projections - his record on those is sewer material. Oh; and so is his OBR pet dog ......... That and the Treasury under this government have turned statistics on the head and used an over 100% margin of error at times I'd always believed Michael Howard to have been the most crooked user of Smoke & Mirrors, his 18% reduction in recorded crime statistics (over-night) was amazing (people actually believed he was tackling crime - he said he had himself). GO has had to do it all along, has had to manipulate the figures in order to save his hide. Full credit to him, he's pulled it off. |
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| Heinrich | Sep 30 2014, 06:58 PM Post #12 |
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Regular Guy
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Most people cannot tell GDP from GNP but they know when they find it hard to pay bills. |
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| Steve K | Sep 30 2014, 06:59 PM Post #13 |
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Once and future cynic
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quarter to quarter GDP comparisons are very iffy, the annualised gives a better guide ![]() but the truth is it was easy to get growth in 2010 as GDP had tanked so badly in 2008 as the GDP figures show ![]() Both Darling and Osborne failed to understand in time just how bad the world recession would be and that was lucky for Darling to not be in office when his plan would have failed badly. Osborne got it wrong in his predictions but not really in determining the needed medicine. |
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| Deleted User | Sep 30 2014, 06:59 PM Post #14 |
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Iirc the Eurozone tanking was supposed to be at least one primary reason why our economy didnt not pick up as quick as expected... |
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| Tigger | Sep 30 2014, 07:30 PM Post #15 |
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Senior Member
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More dog whistle politics from you and like something else dog's do should be handled with disposable gloves, bagged and binned. So they bump up house prices and include it in the GDP figures, count prostitution, drug dealing and parts of the black economy also as GDP, laughable! Perhaps you should take note of blue boy Lord Ashcroft who last week warned the Tories that the "recovery" was only working for those who caused the mess in the first place, and that in just about every marginal seat labour had actually incresed it's poll lead this year, the sight of Conservatives bickering over Europe and bashing the poor is also proving to be a handicap....... |
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| Affa | Sep 30 2014, 07:52 PM Post #16 |
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Senior Member
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Quarterly GDP figures are not iffy, they are what the measure of recession (or not) is based on - we do not look at the annual figure when calculating whether a recession has hit, we look at quarter on quarter. But if you do want the focus to be on the annual chart, take another look. In the year March 2009 to March 2010 the economy grew by over 8% .......... 8% in one year, and almost immediately went into decline, and stayed below that March 2010 figure (size of the economy) until this year. I'll not look for excuses, being out side the Euro zone was an advantage not taken - most of those in Europe, in the euro zone have had better growth figures in the past four years - until now. And it is this until now point that I say is the REAL reason the economy has floundered - now is when George Osborne NEEDS growth, needs to look good. Had he continued the recovery in 2010 and maintained stability the economy would by now be a lot bigger, growth harder to come by, and pressures mounting (as they are in Germany and France). That scenario in election year was poison to George. He stalled recovery, Plan A was all about it, 'cuts cost jobs, job losses cause GDP to fall'. Party Politics at play, the sort associated with Boom & Bust economic policies in the past - the recognition that "it's the economy; stupid" and one every Conservative Chancellor has born in mind when in Government. |
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| Steve K | Sep 30 2014, 08:16 PM Post #17 |
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Once and future cynic
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Nope It went from shrinking at an annualised rate of 6% to growing at just 2%. That's still just 2% (not 8%) growth and as I said that was from a horribly tanked figure. Osborne went for deeper cuts than Darling whose plan was to halve the deficit over 4 years. Both had the same logic that to cut too far would kill off the business base the UK needed to benefit from the eventual recovery. There's no real evidence Gordon cut too far but there is that Darlings longer and deeper deficit plan would have failed as we were forced into the death spiral of having to pay higher and higher interest rates on that £1T+ debt. As I've said, he was lucky to be out of office. |
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