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Tories edge ahead of Labour in poll
Topic Started: Oct 3 2014, 08:35 AM (563 Views)
Cymru
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http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/tories-edge-ahead-of-labour-in-poll-30634403.html

Labour seem to want to snatch an improbable defeat from the jaws of an almost certain victory.
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krugerman
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A Tory lead of 1 point in the opinion polls would not result in a Tory government

This is a post-conference poll, and history tells us that both major parties usualy see a rise in support immediately after the conferences, but then the polls normaly settle back to the pre-conference numbers, this happened last year.

After the 2013 conferences, Labour pushed 10 - 11 points ahead, and after the Tory conference the polls were neck and neck.

The thing about a single poll is to not read too much into it, this could be the begining of a shift towards the Tories, but it could be an "outliner", chances are its a post-conference boost which will slip away.

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papasmurf
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krugerman
Oct 3 2014, 08:47 AM


This is a post-conference poll,
With the lies told during it not being analysed or reported by the media.
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Cymru
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Finally, Labour Party activists can see what the rest of the country can see…

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100288514/finally-labour-party-activists-can-see-what-the-rest-of-the-country-can-see/

Posting this opinion piece as it relates to the OP and succinctly describes Labour's problems.
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Heinrich
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Tweedledum or Tweedledee
And this is called democracy?
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krugerman
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With the YouGov poll showing the Conservatives 1 point ahead, and in the wake of the Tory conference, I would conclude that Labour have everything to play for, infact this mornings poll reflected in a general election would give us a Labour minority gvernment, around 8 seats short of a majority.

I also reiterate what I have always believed, that UKIP will not hit the Labour vote any way near as badly as what it will hit the Conservatives.

One only has to look at either Ashcrofts polls in the marginals, or the recent poll in Heywood & Middleton, which shows that Labour have increased their share of the vote, but the Tories have lost considerable ground, and its looking highly likely that UKIP will push the Tories into third place, by a wide margin.

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papasmurf
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Oct 3 2014, 09:27 AM
Finally, Labour Party activists can see what the rest of the country can see…

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100288514/finally-labour-party-activists-can-see-what-the-rest-of-the-country-can-see/

Posting this opinion piece as it relates to the OP and succinctly describes Labour's problems.
Given how few New Labour party activists there are, (the Tories and Lib-Dems have the same problem,) what the activists can see matters little.
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jeevesnwooster
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 09:42 AM
Cymru
Oct 3 2014, 09:27 AM
Finally, Labour Party activists can see what the rest of the country can see…

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100288514/finally-labour-party-activists-can-see-what-the-rest-of-the-country-can-see/

Posting this opinion piece as it relates to the OP and succinctly describes Labour's problems.
Given how few New Labour party activists there are, (the Tories and Lib-Dems have the same problem,) what the activists can see matters little.
?

Wjat proof do you have that there are few new labour activists

From what I've seen there are loads of middle-class frumpy types who go out and spend every waking moment praising Blair Brown et al's actions preaching that **it to people on their doorsteps
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papasmurf
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jeevesnwooster
Oct 3 2014, 10:01 AM


Wjat proof do you have that there are few new labour activists
It is all three main political parties who have been losing activists in droves it has been discussed to death for some time now

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12934148

1951 Conservative 2.9m - Labour 876,000
1971 Conservative 1.3m - Labour 700,000
1981 Conservative 1.2m - Labour 277,000
1991 Conservative 1m to 0.5m - Labour 261,000 - Lib Dem 91,000
2001 Conservative 311,000 - Labour 272,000 - Lib Dem 73,000
2011 Conservative 177,000 - Labour 190,000 - Lib Dem - 66,000 (Source: Estimates based on party reports and House of Commons Library)


Edited by papasmurf, Oct 3 2014, 10:16 AM.
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jeevesnwooster
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That's members not activists, there's always a minority of activists doing the irritating phoning, canvassing etc

Unite sign half of its 1mil membership up to donating part of their union dues to labour by default, there are other strings attached that I can't remember right now

Last figures I remember for Labour were 50,000 activists, which for a political party is quite high
Edited by jeevesnwooster, Oct 3 2014, 10:24 AM.
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papasmurf
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jeevesnwooster
Oct 3 2014, 10:23 AM
That's members not activists,
The fewer members the fewer activists. None of the main political parties has enough activists left to carry out a door stepping election campaign. That was that case at the last general election and the situation is worse now.
(Any Tory knocking my door is going to regret it. IDS's tissue of lies at the Tory conference really was the last straw.)
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jeevesnwooster
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That's not true at all, I happen to know of people going around knocking on doors for Labour, guess who they are?

Frumpy middle-class people who like to get in on anything free and then try to take it over, I say let them battle it out and laugh at them for it
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papasmurf
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jeevesnwooster
Oct 3 2014, 10:35 AM
That's not true at all, I happen to know of people going around knocking on doors for Labour, guess who they are?

Your personal anecdote does not reflect the situation nationally. There are entire swathes of Britain that have been un-doorstepped by any of the three main parties since 1997.
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jeevesnwooster
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Maybe it's because I live in london/home counties that I've witnessed it, I'm sure they don't give a flying toss about decimated northern mining towns for example, that'd make sense.

Then again, that's where they get the most votes, yet again shooting themselves in both feet I see
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somersetli
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 09:10 AM
krugerman
Oct 3 2014, 08:47 AM


This is a post-conference poll,
With the lies told during it not being analysed or reported by the media.
I imagine you mean for both political parties.
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papasmurf
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jeevesnwooster
Oct 3 2014, 10:43 AM
Maybe it's because I live in london/home counties that I've witnessed it, I'm sure they don't give a flying toss about decimated northern mining towns for example, that'd make sense.

Then again, that's where they get the most votes, yet again shooting themselves in both feet I see
Where I live was at the last general election was effectively a two horse race, with a Lib-Dem winning and New Labour no-where in sight. (Labour has always polled poorly here.)
The Tories have very serious problems in this constituency at the next general election, the very high numbers forced to use food banks, 2nd home owners who really are the unacceptable face of the Tories, low wages, (£14400 annual average,) very high rents, and house prices between 13 and 17 times local average annual earnings.
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jaguar
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Cymru
Oct 3 2014, 08:35 AM
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/tories-edge-ahead-of-labour-in-poll-30634403.html

Labour seem to want to snatch an improbable defeat from the jaws of an almost certain victory.
Maybe the electorate are starting to realise (at last) that a lot of prominent Labour Party members who pretended to care for other people. have managed to become extremely rich, while the people they pretended to care for, their constituents the working classes of the North East of England are very far from being rich. They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
The Labour Party seems to have become a hypocritical sham.
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Heinrich
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jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:14 AM
Cymru
Oct 3 2014, 08:35 AM
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/tories-edge-ahead-of-labour-in-poll-30634403.html

Labour seem to want to snatch an improbable defeat from the jaws of an almost certain victory.
Maybe the electorate are starting to realise (at last) that a lot of prominent Labour Party members who pretended to care for other people. have managed to become extremely rich, while the people they pretended to care for, their constituents the working classes of the North East of England are very far from being rich. They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
The Labour Party seems to have become a hypocritical sham.
The Labour Party was destroyed by Tony Blair and those who helped him.
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papasmurf
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jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:14 AM
They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
What "Socialism?" Any socialism in Britain only exists in the minds of Tories.
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somersetli
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Heinrich
Oct 3 2014, 11:19 AM
jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:14 AM
Cymru
Oct 3 2014, 08:35 AM
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/tories-edge-ahead-of-labour-in-poll-30634403.html

Labour seem to want to snatch an improbable defeat from the jaws of an almost certain victory.
Maybe the electorate are starting to realise (at last) that a lot of prominent Labour Party members who pretended to care for other people. have managed to become extremely rich, while the people they pretended to care for, their constituents the working classes of the North East of England are very far from being rich. They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
The Labour Party seems to have become a hypocritical sham.
The Labour Party was destroyed by Tony Blair and those who helped him.
And they are still in the party
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RJD
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With ~10% bias against the Tories by way of the current boundaries they have a long way to go. Most of the left are not interested in jobs or the economy they just want Big Nanny to grow a lot more nipples for them to suck on. Then you get Milliband and Labour by default and if you want to know what they intend for the UK go to France and see for yourself.
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Heinrich
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somersetli
Oct 3 2014, 11:35 AM
Heinrich
Oct 3 2014, 11:19 AM
jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:14 AM
Cymru
Oct 3 2014, 08:35 AM
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/tories-edge-ahead-of-labour-in-poll-30634403.html

Labour seem to want to snatch an improbable defeat from the jaws of an almost certain victory.
Maybe the electorate are starting to realise (at last) that a lot of prominent Labour Party members who pretended to care for other people. have managed to become extremely rich, while the people they pretended to care for, their constituents the working classes of the North East of England are very far from being rich. They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
The Labour Party seems to have become a hypocritical sham.
The Labour Party was destroyed by Tony Blair and those who helped him.
And they are still in the party
Indubitably.
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jaguar
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 11:20 AM
jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:14 AM
They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
What "Socialism?" Any socialism in Britain only exists in the minds of Tories.
Have to agree, so why do Labour still claim to be Britain's democratic socialist party.
Edited by jaguar, Oct 3 2014, 11:50 AM.
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RJD
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jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:50 AM
papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 11:20 AM
jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 11:14 AM
They're beginning to realise that Socialism is controlled by rich kids from the middle-classes who don't practice what they preach.
What "Socialism?" Any socialism in Britain only exists in the minds of Tories.
Have to agree, so why do Labour still claim to be Britain's democratic socialist party.
Because so many of the Usuals still hanker after a socialist State and have learned little or nothing of the 20th C. failures. Listen to the applause at the last Labour Conference and every one since WW2 and that reveals exactly what they are about.
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papasmurf
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RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:16 PM
Because so many of the Usuals still hanker after a socialist State
Only in your brain RJD.
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jaguar
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 12:20 PM
RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:16 PM
Because so many of the Usuals still hanker after a socialist State
Only in your brain RJD.
So I take it most of us all agree, Labour is not a socialist party, glad we have got that sorted out
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RJD
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 12:20 PM
RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:16 PM
Because so many of the Usuals still hanker after a socialist State
Only in your brain RJD.
Not really Mr Smurf. Did you miss the Labour Conference?
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jaguar
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RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:29 PM
papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 12:20 PM
RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:16 PM
Because so many of the Usuals still hanker after a socialist State
Only in your brain RJD.
Not really Mr Smurf. Did you miss the Labour Conference?
Was that the Labour Conference that Miliband forgot to mention the deficit?
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Alberich
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Light at the end of the tunnel, perhaps. But it would be much stronger of Cameron did the obvious thing, and came to some sort of arrangement with UKIP. I like some of UKIP policies, but recognise that in some areas, a vote for them will let Labour in by the back door. And it is all so unnecessary, as the common enemy of both UKIP AND the conservatives is Labour.

He should recall the old maxim..." the enemy of my enemy is my friend!!" There is still time.
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jaguar
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Alberich
Oct 3 2014, 01:39 PM
Light at the end of the tunnel, perhaps. But it would be much stronger of Cameron did the obvious thing, and came to some sort of arrangement with UKIP. I like some of UKIP policies, but recognise that in some areas, a vote for them will let Labour in by the back door. And it is all so unnecessary, as the common enemy of both UKIP AND the conservatives is Labour.

He should recall the old maxim..." the enemy of my enemy is my friend!!" There is still time.
I would be surprised if both Labour and the Conservatives have not already considered it.
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papasmurf
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RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:29 PM
Not really Mr Smurf. Did you miss the Labour Conference?
I didn't miss it I watched nearly all of it, as I do all party conferences.
There was little evidence of any Socialism, no-one mentioned the reinstatement of clause 4.
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somersetli
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 03:58 PM
RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:29 PM
Not really Mr Smurf. Did you miss the Labour Conference?
I didn't miss it I watched nearly all of it, as I do all party conferences.
There was little evidence of any Socialism, no-one mentioned the reinstatement of clause 4.
Because the Labour party (New or old) knows that there is little appetite for pure socialism in this country.
This is why the Socialist Labour Party makes no headway in elections here.
Blair realised this which is why he supervised the abolition of clause 4.That clause stated that;

The proletariat shall control the means of production, distribution, and exchange. Nobody it seems is interested in that theory, other than those who call for nationalisation.
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papasmurf
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somersetli
Oct 3 2014, 04:31 PM

This is why the Socialist Labour Party makes no headway in elections here.
What Socialist Labour Party?
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somersetli
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 04:35 PM
somersetli
Oct 3 2014, 04:31 PM

This is why the Socialist Labour Party makes no headway in elections here.
What Socialist Labour Party?
The Socialist Labour Party was formed by Arthur Scargill in 1996, reinstating clause 4 was one of its objects.
They did manage to get some councillors elected, but that is as far as it went.
You can look them up on their website.
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Stan Still
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somersetli
Oct 3 2014, 04:31 PM
papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 03:58 PM
RJD
Oct 3 2014, 12:29 PM
Not really Mr Smurf. Did you miss the Labour Conference?
I didn't miss it I watched nearly all of it, as I do all party conferences.
There was little evidence of any Socialism, no-one mentioned the reinstatement of clause 4.
Because the Labour party (New or old) knows that there is little appetite for pure socialism in this country.
This is why the Socialist Labour Party makes no headway in elections here.
Blair realised this which is why he supervised the abolition of clause 4.That clause stated that;

The proletariat shall control the means of production, distribution, and exchange. Nobody it seems is interested in that theory, other than those who call for nationalisation.
Exactly that is why they changed it
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jaguar
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papasmurf
Oct 3 2014, 04:35 PM
somersetli
Oct 3 2014, 04:31 PM

This is why the Socialist Labour Party makes no headway in elections here.
What Socialist Labour Party?
Do my eyes deceive me, you have never heard of the Socialist Labour Party? The only party that wants the reinstatement of clause 4.
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papasmurf
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jaguar
Oct 3 2014, 06:01 PM
Do my eyes deceive me, you have never heard of the Socialist Labour Party? The only party that wants the reinstatement of clause 4.
Never heard of them. Are they yet another two man and a dog party?
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jeevesnwooster
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^ Yep
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Gnikkk
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Surely the country will see sense, remember how it was in the dark ages (13 years) and vote appropriately. I don't care who for just not Labour, they are a disaster.
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RJD
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Gnikkk
Oct 11 2014, 07:34 AM
Surely the country will see sense, remember how it was in the dark ages (13 years) and vote appropriately. I don't care who for just not Labour, they are a disaster.
NL were so appallingly bad they make the claim made by Lewis that the Tories are incompetent as extremely attractive.
Labour cannot win the next GE on merit, but they can via default. The Tories need to strike a deal with UKIP as keeping Labour out is vital for future generations.
I see the IMF claim that the size of the UK economy will exceed that of France next year making it no.2 after Germany with the UK growing and Germany in decline. Labour will kill that off and all associated New job.
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