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Poll shows Reckless on course for by-election victory
Topic Started: Oct 5 2014, 12:39 AM (270 Views)
Cymru
Alt-Right
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780909/Cameron-shock-MoS-poll-says-second-Ukip-defector-heading-election-win-voters-ignore-PM-s-warning-not-bed-Nigel-Farage.html

How to solve a problem like UKIP? ;D
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Heinrich
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Because voters are so predictable, most seats in England are considered "safe" for one party or the other.
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papasmurf
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Heinrich
Oct 5 2014, 01:23 AM
Because voters are so predictable, most seats in England are considered "safe" for one party or the other.
Loads of information on the subject here:-

Data is from 2010.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/britain-in-the-world1/the-next-general-election/

Safe seats

The safest seat in percentage terms is Liverpool Walton, held by new Labour MP Steve Rotheram with a majority of 57.7%. The largest majority in terms of votes is 27,826 for Labour’s Stephen Timms in East Ham.

Of the 200 safest seats, 106 are held by the Conservatives, 83 by Labour, four by the Liberal Democrats and seven by other parties.


Marginal seats

The seat with the smallest majority – four votes – is Fermanagh and South Tyrone, held by Michelle Gildernew for Sinn Fein. Labour’s Glenda Jackson has the next smallest majority – 42 votes or 0.1% – in Hampstead and Kilburn.

Of the 200 seats with the smallest majorities, the Conservatives hold 83, Labour 79, the Liberal Democrats 27, and other parties 11.

Looking at likely challengers for marginal seats, the Conservatives were second in 82 of the 200 most marginal seats, Labour were second in 73 seats, the Liberal Democrats in 39, and other parties in six.

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C-too
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I don't think UKip are the problem, IMO if UKip are successful then the problem is the mentality of those who vote for UKip.
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Tigger
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According to former Tory minister Ken Clarke UKIP voters are "elderly male people who've had disappointing lives", that might be because they spent much of those lives living under Tory rule with it's inbuilt boom and bust mentality.

I'll not argue with that! ;D
Edited by Tigger, Oct 5 2014, 08:28 AM.
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Happy Hornet
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For me the problem with UKIP is that they are simply more of the same, amoral and power hungry just like all the others but they have somehow conned a large section of our society into thinking that they are different.

I mean come on, Farrage, the ex public schoolboy and city banker who is in bed with Murdoch is an anti - establishment folk hero who is going to rid the country of malevolent foreign influences?

Last time I checked Australia was a foreign country and Farrage seems quite happy to recruit members of the same supposedly irredeemably corrupt establishment if it helps his party gain power.

I get the same uneasy feeling about Farrage and Co as I did with Blair and nu labour in 1997. Whenever I raised concerns back then I was dismissed as an establishment stooge who was afraid of change, doubtless I will be again now.

And just like before I hope to God I'm wrong.
Edited by Happy Hornet, Oct 5 2014, 09:00 AM.
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Affa
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It is fair to note that as wise as some people think they are, the Establishment is smarter, and has a better understanding of what is taking place. Often they are successful in orchestrating changes, are active in directing moods and reactions to where they can control them, influence them.
They have the nounce, have the resources, have the press, and most of all, have the money.
UKIP are an example of that alertness, of that ability to retain a measure of control.

Edited by Affa, Oct 5 2014, 10:10 AM.
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Happy Hornet
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Affa, are you saying that UKIP is an establishment tool?
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somersetli
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Well, since the choice is poor any way it won't matter which party is successful.
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Pro Veritas
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C-too
Oct 5 2014, 07:28 AM
I don't think UKip are the problem, IMO if UKip are successful then the problem is the mentality of those who vote for UKip.
Ah, the thought crime of politics.

How very 1984 of you.

You do know 1984 was a warning, not a blue-print, don't you?

Although Labour and the EU seem to think it was a blue-print.

All The Best
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Affa
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Happy Hornet
Oct 5 2014, 10:11 AM
Affa, are you saying that UKIP is an establishment tool?

I am!
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Steve K
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Back on topic

So it's likely that Reckless will be a UKIP MP in November 2014.

Still likely he's be a UKIP P45 holder 6 months later. This poll lead is Farage's work and Farage is a class act on camera but he can't be everywhere come a General Election.
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Stan Still
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somersetli
Oct 5 2014, 10:26 AM
Well, since the choice is poor any way it won't matter which party is successful.
I agree the problem is not UKIP but the miserable performance of the three main parties that have failed us all year after year.
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Tytoalba
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Cymru
Oct 5 2014, 12:39 AM
http://www.ukip.org/poll_results_in_full?utm_campaign=october_1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ukip
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Rich
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C-too
Oct 5 2014, 07:28 AM
I don't think UKip are the problem, IMO if UKip are successful then the problem is the mentality of those who vote for UKip.


I'll not take offence at that remark, but some of us realise that this time round the only way to get the arrogant buggars to take notice of their constituents is to put them out of their seats via a protest vote as I am unable to vote for "none of the above"
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Rich
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I d not hold Mr Prescott in any particular esteem as his fidelity in questionable, but his estimation of his leaders direction and ambition does not bode well for labour, in fact I could not think of a better "knife in the back"

That sums up labour pretty well.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-prescott-leads-labour-attacks-on-timid-ed-miliband-after-poll-puts-tories-ahead-9776047.html

Edited by Rich, Oct 6 2014, 02:13 AM.
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C-too
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Pro Veritas
Oct 5 2014, 10:39 AM
C-too
Oct 5 2014, 07:28 AM
I don't think UKip are the problem, IMO if UKip are successful then the problem is the mentality of those who vote for UKip.
Ah, the thought crime of politics.

How very 1984 of you.

You do know 1984 was a warning, not a blue-print, don't you?

Although Labour and the EU seem to think it was a blue-print.

All The Best
How anti right-wing politics am I is the relevant question.

I am anti ALL extremist political positions, but not against all the ideas that come from the left or right of politics.
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papasmurf
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C-too
Oct 6 2014, 06:57 AM


I am anti ALL extremist political positions, but not against all the ideas that come from the left or right of politics.
Quite, personally I am anti-Tory, not anti right wing politics per se.
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Lewis
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Rich
Oct 6 2014, 02:12 AM
I d not hold Mr Prescott in any particular esteem as his fidelity in questionable, but his estimation of his leaders direction and ambition does not bode well for labour, in fact I could not think of a better "knife in the back"

That sums up labour pretty well.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-prescott-leads-labour-attacks-on-timid-ed-miliband-after-poll-puts-tories-ahead-9776047.html

Agreed the Labour leadership needs to get its act together. A repeat of a Tory government must be prevented at all costs. For the Tories are piece by piece wrecking this country of ours.
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papasmurf
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Lewis
Oct 6 2014, 07:16 AM
For the Tories are piece by piece wrecking this country of ours.
I suggest watching RT News today Freeview channel 135, usual caveats apply, item about the way disabled people are being treated in Britain by the current government.
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C-too
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Rich
Oct 6 2014, 02:12 AM
I d not hold Mr Prescott in any particular esteem as his fidelity in questionable, but his estimation of his leaders direction and ambition does not bode well for labour, in fact I could not think of a better "knife in the back"

That sums up labour pretty well.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-prescott-leads-labour-attacks-on-timid-ed-miliband-after-poll-puts-tories-ahead-9776047.html

Yes, and the unions screwed Labour by electing the wrong Miliband in the first place. It looks like a case of the devil takes care of its own again.
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Steve K
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Rich
Oct 5 2014, 11:08 PM
C-too
Oct 5 2014, 07:28 AM
I don't think UKip are the problem, IMO if UKip are successful then the problem is the mentality of those who vote for UKip.


I'll not take offence at that remark, but some of us realise that this time round the only way to get the arrogant buggars to take notice of their constituents is to put them out of their seats via a protest vote as I am unable to vote for "none of the above"
the old "I don't like drinking tea, I'll try that drain cleaner for a change" plan


less than a cunning plan imho
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Affa
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C-too
Oct 6 2014, 07:28 AM

Yes, and the unions screwed Labour by electing the wrong Miliband in the first place. It looks like a case of the devil takes care of its own again.

Astonishing!
Makes you wonder if they really do want to avoid victory.
Then again the Unions too have sold out to the right, are now part of the Establishment (it does have a lot of success in turning opponents into allies), so it could be that Labour are none persona until the economy is fully recovered and will once more be charged with repairing all the damage, decay, of Tory minimalist wrecking.



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Steve K
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The old saying was that unions leaders voted Conservative and heads of industry voted Labour as each knew what was best for them. I suspect more than a little truth in it
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Gnikkk
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Cymru
Oct 5 2014, 12:39 AM
Sounds like someone has hit the right button. Look the stupid left wing hate crew have created a situation that no one with half a brain can fathom, nor support. Millibad, how on earth could we put up with that idiot?
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Tytoalba
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If Reckless wins for UKIP as forecast, other MPs will recognise the strength of public opinion,and may welll change parties, and from both Labour and Conservative. Cannot see any Liberal member jumping their sinking ship as none of them seem to know what they really want.
Unless the Conservitives led by Cameron anctually put into effect some of their claimed future polices they will lose more creibility and voters to UKIP. Pity UKIP didnt win the other bye election, and have three MPs before the next election.
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