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Ukip come within 600 votes of having TWO MP's at Westminster
Topic Started: Oct 10 2014, 05:46 AM (1,255 Views)
johnofgwent
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Blessed are the alarm clocks that wake your missus, for they allow you first peck at the juicy headline ...

I wake this morning to find that Clacton has a UKIP Member of Parliament.

That isn't all that surprising, the man was clearly unhappy at Cameron's leadership, and over fifty per cent of the electorate turned out to demonstrate that they are not happy with him either, to the tune of a twelve thousand majority over the "official concervative and unionist party candidate" with the others in the running reduced to the status not so much of "also rans" but more "did they bother to leave the starting gate ?"

What I find most entertaining, coming as I do from a constituency where the sitting (L:abour) MP has pissed her 10,000 + majority up the wall and wonlast time by a mere 1000 votes on a turnout higher than it has been for a while, is that the OTHER by election, in a constituency LABOUR have held comfortably since it was created in 1983, a by-election caused not by political discontent but by the death of the sitting MP, UKIP came to within SIX HUNDRED VOTES of winning. LABOUR held the seat with 11,600 and something the UKIP's Eleven Thousand.

I shall REALLY enjoy voting UKIP in May 2015 in Newport East.
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Heinrich
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A lot of votes for the Establishment sitting MP who retained his seat.
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Lewis
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Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
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Be careful what you wish/vote for?
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Malden Capell
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Gosh, what an earthquake. And there's Plaid Cymru with three. And the Greens with 1 already.

UKIP have become the fourth largest party in the UK behind the SNP.
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papasmurf
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Lewis
Oct 10 2014, 06:48 AM
Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
I will be voting to keep a Tory out as well.
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johnofgwent
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Heinrich
Oct 10 2014, 06:14 AM
A lot of votes for the Establishment sitting MP who retained his seat.
well that is how ed milliband will spin it.

here's the truth

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1980s

In 1983 the seat was created and James Callaghan (NO, NOT the one both Miss Whiplash and Screaming Lord Sutch "doorstepped" me to ask me to vote against, the other one) came first almost four thousand votes clear of the conservatives. Had not the Social Democrat "gang of four" stolen almost ten thousand Labour votes it would have been a Tory rout.

In 1987 Sunny Jim's namesake consolidated his position taking back half the social democrat votes. His margin rose to almost 7,000

In 1992 he did it again, taking a further slice back from the newly formed "Liberal Democrats" and some tory votes too. The majority now was around the 8,000 mark and more than half the people that turned out to vote, voted for him,. making him one of the very few people to actually have not only won their seat, but to have won it with the support of the majority of the electorate.

In 1997 Jim Dobbin was the man and the Labour majority more than doubled. Dobbin had almost 58 votes of every 100 cast witht the tory party the biggest loser. Labours MAJORITY that day was more than one and a half times their TOTAL vote last night.

In 2001 Mr Dobbin's share of the vote remained unchanged at 57.7% making his party the one voted for my more than half the electorate three times in a row. Tory gains in the seat were made at the expense of the Lib Dems with apathy being the only clear winner as turnout plummeted. His MAJORITY that day was on a par with last night's total.

In 2005 with Blair taking a pasting for his warmongering Mr Dobbin held onto his seat with a largely unchanged majority over his nearest rival, thanks to the Lib Dems stole votes from him and from the tory runner up alike. UKIP made their entry on the scene and lost their deposit collecting a paltry seven hundred odd votes

In 2010 Labour's majority was sliced in half as the Tory closed in hotly pursued by a n ascending Liberal democrat vote. Hell even the BNP retained their deposit with 7% of the poll. UKIP's candidate that day lost their deposit getting only a third of the BNP vote ...


In my own constituency, Newport east, I watched a Labour party complacent beyond belief parachute in a woman on an all woman shortlist and have a veritable dossier of letters from her admitting to her failure to act and failure to comprehend the consequences of her vote in the division lobby, when she has believed the weasel words of labour junior ministers with a clear agenda and later lived to regret them.

In 2010 after his party was comprehensively kicked in the gonads Ed Milliband wrote to everyone in our constituency asking us to come to a community centre and tell his former secretary of state for wales what they had done to deserve the kicking they got. I decided not to go, not least because I had already told the man he was sending why he was a loser, to his face on live TV, and the record of me doing so is on youtube for anyone to find, as part of the Sky News General Election 2010 Great Debate Wales ...

Spin this day any way you choose Heinrich, the fact is Milliband today s about as secure as these holiday himes ...

Posted Image
Edited by johnofgwent, Oct 10 2014, 08:30 AM.
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Steve K
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Have to say well done Carswell and UKIP even though I detest that party. Labour must be wondering if there is still time to dump the Eds before May, they have been so found out.

7 months to go, could be an interesting time.


Edited by Steve K, Oct 10 2014, 08:35 AM.
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Tytoalba
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johnofgwent
Oct 10 2014, 05:46 AM
Blessed are the alarm clocks that wake your missus, for they allow you first peck at the juicy headline ...

I wake this morning to find that Clacton has a UKIP Member of Parliament.

That isn't all that surprising, the man was clearly unhappy at Cameron's leadership, and over fifty per cent of the electorate turned out to demonstrate that they are not happy with him either, to the tune of a twelve thousand majority over the "official concervative and unionist party candidate" with the others in the running reduced to the status not so much of "also rans" but more "did they bother to leave the starting gate ?"

What I find most entertaining, coming as I do from a constituency where the sitting (L:abour) MP has pissed her 10,000 + majority up the wall and wonlast time by a mere 1000 votes on a turnout higher than it has been for a while, is that the OTHER by election, in a constituency LABOUR have held comfortably since it was created in 1983, a by-election caused not by political discontent but by the death of the sitting MP, UKIP came to within SIX HUNDRED VOTES of winning. LABOUR held the seat with 11,600 and something the UKIP's Eleven Thousand.

I shall REALLY enjoy voting UKIP in May 2015 in Newport East.
Shouldnt that read 300 votes or so, for if only 300 had changed their vote to UKIP Ukip from Labour they would have gained 300 and Labour lost 300. What we now know is that a UKIP candidate can be elected, and a vote for them is NOT a wasted vote. Events and facts are much more important than speculation, in politics,IMO
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Tytoalba
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Lewis
Oct 10 2014, 06:48 AM
Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
And in return , a lot of voters will vote UKIP to unseat the current Labour MP.
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papasmurf
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Tytoalba
Oct 10 2014, 11:00 AM
And in return , a lot of voters will vote UKIP to unseat the current Labour MP.
That is a possibility in 14 New Labour seats according to the "experts."
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Happy Hornet
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So an incumbent MP retains his seat but with a different colour rossette on his lapel.

Truly earth shattering stuff, take that establishment!
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Alberich
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I don't think that any of the two major parties will be very happy this morning; although they will "spin" the results as best they can. Mr Carswell was a very effective and well respected MP locally, and a lot of his support can be inferred from that fact. Had he been one of the many "invisible" constituent MPs, who only appear when an election is due, the result might have been different. But the conservative lost a safe seat, and they will be worried.

As for Labour, this was a catastrophe of seismic proportion. They came within a whisker of losing a surefire Labour seat, and this result demonstrates that UKIP is taking votes from BOTH the main parties; AND in significant numbers. And now that they have made the breakthrough, and have a sitting MP, many will now start to see them as a real alternative to both Labour, and conservative. What these parties have failed to realise that, while the economy is a major player, it is "immigration, and membership of the EU, stupid", that consistently show as major concerns for your average Joe Bloggs voter.

So will UKIP continue in similar vein at the general election? A week back, and I would have said no. But now???? One final thought that would be REALLY bad news for Cameron, and that is if Labour bite the bullet, dump Ed. before the election, and replace him with a more electable, voter friendly leader. Johnson, perhaps?? If they did, their lead in the polls would soar.

God, I hope they don't!
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Happy Hornet
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Are UKIP a genuine alternative though?

They now have an MP and may soon have two, both of whom are establishment MPs who defected from the tories and are led by a man who is an ex public schoolboy and city trader who is in Rupert Murdoch's pocket. In other words, he could not be more establishment if he tried.

So as an average Joe, I should be excited about all of this because.......?
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jeevesnwooster
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Happy Hornet
Oct 10 2014, 12:22 PM
So an incumbent MP retains his seat but with a different colour rossette on his lapel.

Truly earth shattering stuff, take that establishment!
Ha so true
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Heinrich
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jeevesnwooster
Oct 10 2014, 01:09 PM
Happy Hornet
Oct 10 2014, 12:22 PM
So an incumbent MP retains his seat but with a different colour rossette on his lapel.

Truly earth shattering stuff, take that establishment!
Ha so true
See post #2.
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rizzo
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Steve K
Oct 10 2014, 08:34 AM
Have to say well done Carswell and UKIP even though I detest that party. Labour must be wondering if there is still time to dump the Eds before May, they have been so found out.

7 months to go, could be an interesting time.


I'm fascinated to see how the next GE goes, at the moment I have absolutely no idea which for me is unusual, I can usually get a clue as to how the electorate is moving.

Interesting times.

I shall be voting UKIP.
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jaguar
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I have just had an interesting thought, if it is claimed there is evidence of postal fraud, will there be a re-run at Heywood & Middleton.
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Stan Still
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I shall be voting for UKIP for the best of reasons the other three parties are not listening, plus out of the main three one of them is better than the other two who are completely useless as their track records show.

If UKIP was not standing in my constituency, I would not vote at all.
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jaguar
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rizzo
Oct 10 2014, 04:23 PM
I shall be voting UKIP.
As will many up North.

As you say, interesting times.
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Pro Veritas
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Did I hear it correctly on the news?

Carswell INCREASED his majority?

Now, that is the BIG issue of the moment.

If Carswell had lost, or even retained the seat with a diminished majority that the Tories could take heart that some of their voters stayed loyal.

But Carswell increasing his majority is not only a slap in the face for the Tories, but also a warning shot to Labour.

Interesting times indeed.

All The Best
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Lewis
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Tytoalba
Oct 10 2014, 11:00 AM
Lewis
Oct 10 2014, 06:48 AM
Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
And in return , a lot of voters will vote UKIP to unseat the current Labour MP.
Well as Scammer's himself stated:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29565764

Quote:
 
Prime Minister David Cameron has warned that a big vote for the UK Independence Party could lead to a Labour victory at next year's general election.


Frankly that's the best thing that Scammer's has ever said and something I could endorse entirely.

Also the best thing that could happen in my opinion. I know that Labour in my area have no chance hence the reason I'm voting for UKIP, to help get rid of our Tory MP and help rid ourselves of this incompetent Tory government!
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johnofgwent
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Tytoalba
Oct 10 2014, 10:58 AM
Shouldnt that read 300 votes or so, for if only 300 had changed their vote to UKIP Ukip from Labour they would have gained 300 and Labour lost 300. What we now know is that a UKIP candidate can be elected, and a vote for them is NOT a wasted vote. Events and facts are much more important than speculation, in politics,IMO
"Shouldnt that read 300 votes or so,"

I do not think so. I studied the results very carefully against the elections going back to 1983 when the seat was created. It is interesting to note that the vote for labour is actually little unchanged from the 2010 election, What has changed radically is the makeup og tjhe vote against labour.

That analysis also bodes ill for a general election with a larger turnout, and I think there most certainly will be a larger turnout.

Not leat because if you think Labour gave themselves coronaries and cardiacs runnign ragged through the streets ranting "FFS get off your arse and vote labour or the BNP will get in" ...

... just you wait and see how hard they rant against UKIP next year ...
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Stan Still
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Immigration is a big issue in Manchester and the surrounding areas that is why Labour is not as popular as it once was there, the turn out was only 36% if I recall correctly that also speaks volumes
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Affa
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Steve K
Oct 10 2014, 08:34 AM
Have to say well done Carswell and UKIP even though I detest that party. Labour must be wondering if there is still time to dump the Eds before May, they have been so found out.

7 months to go, could be an interesting time.



Both Eds must go, but I don't think it will happen.
Miliband is in the most trouble as there is nothing he can do, anyone can do, to make him more popular.

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Tigger
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I'm no fan of UKIP but anything that shakes up that shower of shit in Westminster is fine by me, lets give them a kick in first of all and work out the response after they react, there should be no going back to business as usual now.
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jeevesnwooster
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Tigger
Oct 10 2014, 07:59 PM
I'm no fan of UKIP but anything that shakes up that shower of shit in Westminster is fine by me, lets give them a kick in first of all and work out the response after they react, there should be no going back to business as usual now.
Um, pushing the government to be even more right-wing and evangelical about the free markets is bad, that's exactly the opposite of what we need.
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Stan Still
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Affa
Oct 10 2014, 07:46 PM
Steve K
Oct 10 2014, 08:34 AM
Have to say well done Carswell and UKIP even though I detest that party. Labour must be wondering if there is still time to dump the Eds before May, they have been so found out.

7 months to go, could be an interesting time.



Both Eds must go, but I don't think it will happen.
Miliband is in the most trouble as there is nothing he can do, anyone can do, to make him more popular.

No leave them where they are they are doing a grand job of putting Labour out of the running for years and years hopefully for good, tell them to keep calm and carry on the Country needs them. !jk!
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Ukip's policies are denying AGW and getting out of the EU.....and criticising the latest government cock up.
You lot are supporting these jokers because you hate other parties even more?
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Tigger
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jeevesnwooster
Oct 10 2014, 08:05 PM
Tigger
Oct 10 2014, 07:59 PM
I'm no fan of UKIP but anything that shakes up that shower of shit in Westminster is fine by me, lets give them a kick in first of all and work out the response after they react, there should be no going back to business as usual now.
Um, pushing the government to be even more right-wing and evangelical about the free markets is bad, that's exactly the opposite of what we need.
You are of course right, but in all honesty what else is going to change Westminster?

The sight of the Conservative party tearing itself apart over UKIP is a price worth paying for the welfare of future generations, and Europe laying down the terms on which an "independent" Britain can trade with it will very quickly cure the little Englanders of their delusions to boot. Realism in the House of Commons has yet to take root, but it will once they realise the threat is a real one it will. You cannot keep crapping on the electorate forever.
Edited by Tigger, Oct 10 2014, 08:54 PM.
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Rich
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Stan Still
Oct 10 2014, 06:44 PM
Immigration is a big issue in Manchester and the surrounding areas that is why Labour is not as popular as it once was there, the turn out was only 36% if I recall correctly that also speaks volumes


The chickens have come home to roost Stan, even Labour's own supporters have turned their backs on them.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442782/A-spectacular-mistake-Jack-Straw-admits-Labour-got-it-badly-wrong-on-immigration

One thing I cannot understand is why the paymasters who bankrolled Milliband into office have not "leaned" on him to make the immigration issue an important part of his electioneering seeing as how they will forever be burdened with the Brown mantra of British jobs for British workers...............very strange. !nono!
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Heinrich
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The rot set in in New Labour with Tony Blair who was very popular with English voters. Now there is nowhere for the working class to go. Tories are popular in southern and rural England where UKIP should gain some more seats, especially if there are more defections.
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Gnikkk
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Lewis
Oct 10 2014, 06:48 AM
Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
What a shame that your local Labour candidate has nothing to offer you.
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RJD
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gansao
Oct 10 2014, 06:58 AM
Be careful what you wish/vote for?
He is voting tactically and is a devout Labourite.
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Lewis
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RJD
Oct 11 2014, 06:58 AM
gansao
Oct 10 2014, 06:58 AM
Be careful what you wish/vote for?
He is voting tactically and is a devout Labourite.
Of course I am voting tactically in order to get rid of the Tory incompetents.
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Gnikkk
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Dream on. Perhaps you would be better taking positive action.
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Lewis
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Gnikkk
Oct 11 2014, 06:36 AM
Lewis
Oct 10 2014, 06:48 AM
Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
What a shame that your local Labour candidate has nothing to offer you.
In my area the Labour candidate has little or no chance hence the reason for my voting the way I am.
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Gnikkk
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Do you not feel the need to conform to our democratic system.
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RJD
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Gnikkk
Oct 11 2014, 06:36 AM
Lewis
Oct 10 2014, 06:48 AM
Actually I have a confession to make. Although I'm a Labour supporter, I will vote UKIP in 2015 tactically of course, to help unseat our current Tory MP.
What a shame that your local Labour candidate has nothing to offer you.
But he has an the living example of this can be seen with a quick visit to the socialist failed state called France
Labour politics only appeal to the aGency and Spite Brigade, they have nothing to offer to those with aspirations. Remember that at the last Labour conference they only applauded SPENDING. They are not interested in how the money is created or how many real jobs they destroy.
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Gnikkk
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Gnikkk
Oct 11 2014, 07:08 AM
Do you not feel the need to conform to our democratic system.
Hey you forgot the ?
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