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Second global crash looming.
Topic Started: Nov 16 2014, 09:46 PM (525 Views)
AndyK
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Warns Cameron at G20 conference.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david-cameron-third-eurozone-recession-g20-warning

I don't see it myself, the big signature of the last crash was an unprecedented huge spike in oil prices, currently oil prices are going down which should actually stimulate the global economy.
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Tigger
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Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
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Curious Cdn
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I submit to you that the EC's restrictive, protective trading practises are part of the problem. You are trying to do each other's laundry to the exclusion of others. Time to drop all of your protective tariffs and enter the 21st century.
Edited by Curious Cdn, Nov 16 2014, 10:33 PM.
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Curious Cdn
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Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
"PM says ‘red warning lights are flashing’ against a backdrop of instability and uncertainty, as G20 summit draws to a close "

... has the smell of pre-election hysteria generation. Do you have one coming soon?
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Lewis
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Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
Well I've long argued that the so-called boom is one based on smoke and mirrors and cannot be sustained. The incompetents have botched it all up.
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Tigger
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Curious Cdn
Nov 16 2014, 10:29 PM
Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
"PM says ‘red warning lights are flashing’ against a backdrop of instability and uncertainty, as G20 summit draws to a close "

... has the smell of pre-election hysteria generation. Do you have one coming soon?
How did you guess! ;D
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Heinrich
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Curious Cdn
Nov 16 2014, 10:27 PM
I submit to you that the EC's restrictive, protective trading practises are part of the problem. You are trying to do each other's laundry to the exclusion of others. Time to drop all of your protective tariffs and enter the 21st century.
What is the EC?
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Tigger
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Lewis
Nov 16 2014, 10:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
Well I've long argued that the so-called boom is one based on smoke and mirrors and cannot be sustained. The incompetents have botched it all up.
It would seem to me that Europe is not interested in the sort of recovery we are going for, ie growth based on even more debt which is of course unsustainable without a corresponding increase in productivity, by the looks of things on the continent they are looking to consolidate and get asset prices back into line with wages and aspiration, deflation in other words. Which in the eyes of the City is akin to kiddy fiddling and having a threesome with your mum and sister, at the same time. Few in Europe see the British model of boom and bust as workable any more, we of course think it is perfectly normal!

Watch the government blame everyone else for not being the repetitive and predictable dicks we are.
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Steve K
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Lewis
Nov 16 2014, 10:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
Well I've long argued that the so-called boom is one based on smoke and mirrors and cannot be sustained. The incompetents have botched it all up.
Yes that false boom in 2007 fuelled by reckless levels of private debt to income was so stupid.

Posted Image
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Affa
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AndyK
Nov 16 2014, 09:46 PM
Warns Cameron at G20 conference.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david-cameron-third-eurozone-recession-g20-warning

I don't see it myself, the big signature of the last crash was an unprecedented huge spike in oil prices, currently oil prices are going down which should actually stimulate the global economy.
Quote:
 
“a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty”


The Doom & Gloom Party living up to its reputation!

That's an interesting statement Cameron made (above), which is in contrast to 'stability and confidence', the two words Blair and brown were guided by as being the necessary foundation for sustainable economic growth.

There's an election coming, and as always the Tories will try to scare voters with all this talk of impending doom if Labour get in.
To do it here though just makes him look mercenary in the eyes of the world.

The agreement reached is for the G20 to invest in growth and more jobs - the opposite to Osborne's economic plans. What was it that was said after the new PM met B Obama to discuss the way forward - "we agreed to disagree".

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Affa
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Steve K
Nov 16 2014, 11:33 PM
Yes that false boom in 2007 fuelled by reckless levels of private debt to income was so stupid.

Posted Image

The arrest in household debt is the result of the end of cheap borrowing. Low Interest rates encouraged debt, high rates deter it.
The downside is that SMEs can no longer get the favourable rates for investment in higher productivity ...... and that hurts all round, jobs the more so.

There are many culprits and victims to this complex multi-faceted system , but politicking determines which are exposed and which are hidden.

To my mind it mattered little what colour rosette the government were wearing, the Financial Sector was pulling the strings, and the puppets performed as these demanded. The worst of it is that there has been no change in that regard that I can see, can point to and say 'well done there, the buggers needed putting in their place'.








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Curious Cdn
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Heinrich
Nov 16 2014, 11:02 PM
Curious Cdn
Nov 16 2014, 10:27 PM
I submit to you that the EC's restrictive, protective trading practises are part of the problem. You are trying to do each other's laundry to the exclusion of others. Time to drop all of your protective tariffs and enter the 21st century.
What is the EC?
That's what we call the European Community. ... which extends beyond the 'Eurozone" into places like the UK.
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Heinrich
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Curious Cdn
Nov 17 2014, 12:45 AM
Heinrich
Nov 16 2014, 11:02 PM
Curious Cdn
Nov 16 2014, 10:27 PM
I submit to you that the EC's restrictive, protective trading practises are part of the problem. You are trying to do each other's laundry to the exclusion of others. Time to drop all of your protective tariffs and enter the 21st century.
What is the EC?
That's what we call the European Community. ... which extends beyond the 'Eurozone" into places like the UK.
Oh! You mean the European Union (EU).
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Boxter
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The EU is the Titanic Mk2 and its going down even without yet another debt fuelled recession. The only growth in trade is all outside its borders where this country needs to be pronto!
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Heinrich
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Tories blame global crashes on the Westminster Government.
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marybrown
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Apparently it is Japan going down the sh*tter..nothing to do with the EU!!
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AndyK
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Steve K
Nov 16 2014, 11:33 PM
Lewis
Nov 16 2014, 10:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
Well I've long argued that the so-called boom is one based on smoke and mirrors and cannot be sustained. The incompetents have botched it all up.
Yes that false boom in 2007 fuelled by reckless levels of private debt to income was so stupid.

Posted Image

Posted Image

World economy couldn't absorb this in such a short space of time.
Edited by AndyK, Nov 17 2014, 06:47 PM.
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papasmurf
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AndyK
Nov 16 2014, 09:46 PM


I don't see it myself, the big signature of the last crash was an unprecedented huge spike in oil prices, currently oil prices are going down which should actually stimulate the global economy.
I suggest you start watching the Keiser Report.
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Tigger
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Boxter
Nov 17 2014, 01:37 AM
The EU is the Titanic Mk2 and its going down even without yet another debt fuelled recession. The only growth in trade is all outside its borders where this country needs to be pronto!
Actually Bolloxster the EU runs a healthy trade surplus with the rest of the World, sadly the UK runs a constant deficit, facts you won't in most of the lowbrow British press.

Vote UKIP! ;-)
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AndyK
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Tigger
Nov 17 2014, 08:17 PM
Boxter
Nov 17 2014, 01:37 AM
The EU is the Titanic Mk2 and its going down even without yet another debt fuelled recession. The only growth in trade is all outside its borders where this country needs to be pronto!
Actually Bolloxster the EU runs a healthy trade surplus with the rest of the World, sadly the UK runs a constant deficit, facts you won't in most of the lowbrow British press.

Vote UKIP! ;-)
Unfortunately, the EU's trade surplus, while helping, on its own its not going to fix it.

Japan run large surpluses right up to 2010 and it didn't stop it becoming a zombie economy full of zombie firms and zombie banks.

The EU will follow it right down the pan unless it allows its banks to fail, that applies to the UK as well.

What we need right now is a good bout of inflation and there is no way that can happen while there is risk free banking.

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Tytoalba
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Curious Cdn
Nov 16 2014, 10:29 PM
Tigger
Nov 16 2014, 10:06 PM
Perhaps the government has run out of economic props and is looking for a scapegoat?

Back in May we for the first time ever were paying a billion quid a week just in interest on the national debt, productivity has plummeted and the tax take is set to drop.

The sooner the government stops trying to buck the rules of the market the sooner we can return to fiscal normality, it will of course be painful but this time painful for everyone.
"PM says ‘red warning lights are flashing’ against a backdrop of instability and uncertainty, as G20 summit draws to a close "

... has the smell of pre-election hysteria generation. Do you have one coming soon?
Are we going to take what he says as a resoned possibility, a matter of fact that needs to be adressed, or are we going to play party politics with its point scoring?
If what he sayss is true, or has a very real possiblility of becoming true, we need to take action now to protect our interests or pay the price of disbelieving and accepting the consequences. Let those who understand the worlds economy and how it is moving contradict him if they can, or let the opposition in parliament digest his warnings and opose him with their own facts and reasoning.
Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
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johnofgwent
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It .. It is GREEN !!
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Heinrich
Nov 17 2014, 05:22 PM
Tories blame global crashes on the Westminster Government.
Eh ?

I think you will find the Westminster government (i.e. the tory/lib dem coalition) are the LAST people the tories are blaming...
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Tigger
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Tytoalba
Nov 17 2014, 11:02 PM

Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
And do what exactly?

Cameron knows his gamble is going to fail, we have a growing economy (sic) but it has almost certainly been paid for with even more debt, increased productivity the real driver of genuine growth is nowhere to be seen.

And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
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Pro Veritas
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Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM
And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
Is it a dashboard imported from one our race-to-the-bottom global market place competitors?

All The Best
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Heinrich
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johnofgwent
Nov 17 2014, 11:52 PM
Heinrich
Nov 17 2014, 05:22 PM
Tories blame global crashes on the Westminster Government.
Eh ?

I think you will find the Westminster government (i.e. the tory/lib dem coalition) are the LAST people the tories are blaming...
Referring to the global crash of 2008, David Cameron blamed the Westminster Government. "This crisis has highlighted just how mistaken Labour's economic policy has been," Mr Cameron said in a speech in the City of London.
The world crash was the British Government's Fault
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RJD
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Second? 2nd. What about all those since the South Sea Bubble? Maybe not a crash but some form of economic malaise caused by global retrenchment brought about by distrust. Britain is no Island, must import or die, but we are probably now not the worse placed economy in the G20 to face the mini Tsunami. Italy will probably be washed away and take much of France with it.

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Tytoalba
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Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 17 2014, 11:02 PM

Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
And do what exactly?

Cameron knows his gamble is going to fail, we have a growing economy (sic) but it has almost certainly been paid for with even more debt, increased productivity the real driver of genuine growth is nowhere to be seen.

And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.
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papasmurf
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Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
That won't be the Tories then because if they get in with a working majority a revolution would be inevitable.
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AndyK
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Heinrich
Nov 18 2014, 01:22 AM
johnofgwent
Nov 17 2014, 11:52 PM
Heinrich
Nov 17 2014, 05:22 PM
Tories blame global crashes on the Westminster Government.
Eh ?

I think you will find the Westminster government (i.e. the tory/lib dem coalition) are the LAST people the tories are blaming...
Referring to the global crash of 2008, David Cameron blamed the Westminster Government. "This crisis has highlighted just how mistaken Labour's economic policy has been," Mr Cameron said in a speech in the City of London.
The world crash was the British Government's Fault
I pretty much agree with Cameron there.

The only problem here is that I don't expect it would have been any different had the conservatives been in power.

A Labour government should have known better than to get in bed with the City though.
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ACH1967
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papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 11:24 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
That won't be the Tories then because if they get in with a working majority a revolution would be inevitable.
The only place where that is inevitabel is in your befuddled doddering mind...give it a rest.
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marybrown
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Well it was the bankers fault last time...who is getting the bucket of shite on their heads now?
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papasmurf
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ACH1967
Nov 18 2014, 01:16 PM
The only place where that is inevitabel is in your befuddled doddering mind...give it a rest.
I have no intention of "giving it a rest." The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.
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marybrown
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Who would you prefer?

Congenital idiot Milliband?
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jaguar
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papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 11:24 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
That won't be the Tories then because if they get in with a working majority a revolution would be inevitable.
Who's going to revolt, certainly not the working classes, unless you mean the unions.

The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.

And you really believe Labour are. !jk! !jk! !jk!
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RJD
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papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 11:24 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
That won't be the Tories then because if they get in with a working majority a revolution would be inevitable.
As Karl said to Frederik over a pint in a Pub in Stockport. Still waiting.

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jaguar
Nov 18 2014, 04:03 PM
papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 11:24 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
That won't be the Tories then because if they get in with a working majority a revolution would be inevitable.
Who's going to revolt, certainly not the working classes, unless you mean the unions.

The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.

And you really believe Labour are. !jk! !jk! !jk!
I think there is an element here of Cameron getting any possible excuse in first! He is afterall a politician approaching an unforecastable general election.

Against the prophesy of a third global Armageddon is the continuing recovery in the US economy, forecast to grow by over 3% in 2015. Emerging and frontier economies are always more volatile than the first world economies but most are still growing even if the pace is lower and certainly there is increasingly effective market governance at least in Asia. The UK is still forcast to grow at around 2.9% in 2015, while finally the EU is stopping sitting on its hands wondering what to do and is showing signs through the ECB and Draghi, that they may start quantitative easing. It is not all doom and gloom.

On the other hand we have Islamic State, Ukraine v. Russia, Ebola and now Japan in recession which unsettles trading economies.

Global economic recovery is by no means certain but I think that Cameron is over stating the downside. So do the markets!
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RJD
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papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 02:30 PM
ACH1967
Nov 18 2014, 01:16 PM
The only place where that is inevitabel is in your befuddled doddering mind...give it a rest.
I have no intention of "giving it a rest." The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.
Only to the Shroud Wavers who are a small minority. I must admit that they have made a fist of it, but are a vast improvement over the Wooden-tops that preceded them. I don't expect much from Politicians and certainly nothing beneficial from the left leaning variety.

You must admit Mr Smurf that that chappy IDS is doing a grand job, he has managed, in the face of all those vested interests to get hundreds of thousands of people off their idle arses and back into work, so he says. Mind you "work" what's that in the scheme of things?
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marybrown
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RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:28 PM
papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 02:30 PM
ACH1967
Nov 18 2014, 01:16 PM
The only place where that is inevitabel is in your befuddled doddering mind...give it a rest.
I have no intention of "giving it a rest." The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.
Only to the Shroud Wavers who are a small minority. I must admit that they have made a fist of it, but are a vast improvement over the Wooden-tops that preceded them. I don't expect much from Politicians and certainly nothing beneficial from the left leaning variety.

You must admit Mr Smurf that that chappy IDS is doing a grand job, he has managed, in the face of all those vested interests to get hundreds of thousands of people off their idle arses and back into work, so he says. Mind you "work" what's that in the scheme of things?
I can only agree..Yes the conservatives have made a fist of it..

Kicking Sharon...Darren.. and Karen off their bone idle arses..

And I never thought I would say that..
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RJD
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Major Sinic
Nov 18 2014, 04:27 PM
jaguar
Nov 18 2014, 04:03 PM
papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 11:24 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
That won't be the Tories then because if they get in with a working majority a revolution would be inevitable.
Who's going to revolt, certainly not the working classes, unless you mean the unions.

The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.

And you really believe Labour are. !jk! !jk! !jk!
I think there is an element here of Cameron getting any possible excuse in first! He is afterall a politician approaching an unforecastable general election.

Against the prophesy of a third global Armageddon is the continuing recovery in the US economy, forecast to grow by over 3% in 2015. Emerging and frontier economies are always more volatile than the first world economies but most are still growing even if the pace is lower and certainly there is increasingly effective market governance at least in Asia. The UK is still forcast to grow at around 2.9% in 2015, while finally the EU is stopping sitting on its hands wondering what to do and is showing signs through the ECB and Draghi, that they may start quantitative easing. It is not all doom and gloom.

On the other hand we have Islamic State, Ukraine v. Russia, Ebola and now Japan in recession which unsettles trading economies.

Global economic recovery is by no means certain but I think that Cameron is over stating the downside. So do the markets!
All just in preparation for the claim "you have done a good job so far, still a lot of risks and a way to go so don't let those Labour idiots, the ones that got us all into this mess, ruin all your hard work". It is predictable. It is the fear factor, but this time not of the unknown and that is Milli's problem, you see he has been fingered.
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RJD
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marybrown
Nov 18 2014, 04:33 PM
RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:28 PM
papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 02:30 PM
ACH1967
Nov 18 2014, 01:16 PM
The only place where that is inevitabel is in your befuddled doddering mind...give it a rest.
I have no intention of "giving it a rest." The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.
Only to the Shroud Wavers who are a small minority. I must admit that they have made a fist of it, but are a vast improvement over the Wooden-tops that preceded them. I don't expect much from Politicians and certainly nothing beneficial from the left leaning variety.

You must admit Mr Smurf that that chappy IDS is doing a grand job, he has managed, in the face of all those vested interests to get hundreds of thousands of people off their idle arses and back into work, so he says. Mind you "work" what's that in the scheme of things?
I can only agree..Yes the conservatives have made a fist of it..

Kicking Sharon...Darren.. and Karen off their bone idle arses..

And I never thought I would say that..
Well Mary it is not a matter of which Party will do the best, but which would do the least damage.
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