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Second global crash looming.
Topic Started: Nov 16 2014, 09:46 PM (524 Views)
AndyK
Senior Member
[ *  *  *  * ]
Warns Cameron at G20 conference.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david-cameron-third-eurozone-recession-g20-warning

I don't see it myself, the big signature of the last crash was an unprecedented huge spike in oil prices, currently oil prices are going down which should actually stimulate the global economy.
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Replies:
marybrown
Senior Member
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RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:33 PM
Major Sinic
Nov 18 2014, 04:27 PM
jaguar
Nov 18 2014, 04:03 PM
papasmurf
Nov 18 2014, 11:24 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Who's going to revolt, certainly not the working classes, unless you mean the unions.

The Tories have now proven themselves totally unfit for office.

And you really believe Labour are. !jk! !jk! !jk!
I think there is an element here of Cameron getting any possible excuse in first! He is afterall a politician approaching an unforecastable general election.

Against the prophesy of a third global Armageddon is the continuing recovery in the US economy, forecast to grow by over 3% in 2015. Emerging and frontier economies are always more volatile than the first world economies but most are still growing even if the pace is lower and certainly there is increasingly effective market governance at least in Asia. The UK is still forcast to grow at around 2.9% in 2015, while finally the EU is stopping sitting on its hands wondering what to do and is showing signs through the ECB and Draghi, that they may start quantitative easing. It is not all doom and gloom.

On the other hand we have Islamic State, Ukraine v. Russia, Ebola and now Japan in recession which unsettles trading economies.

Global economic recovery is by no means certain but I think that Cameron is over stating the downside. So do the markets!
All just in preparation for the claim "you have done a good job so far, still a lot of risks and a way to go so don't let those Labour idiots, the ones that got us all into this mess, ruin all your hard work". It is predictable. It is the fear factor, but this time not of the unknown and that is Milli's problem, you see he has been fingered.
Ed Milliband is doing more for the Conservative government than he will ever know..
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RJD
Member Avatar
Prudence and Thrift
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marybrown
Nov 18 2014, 04:37 PM
RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:33 PM
Major Sinic
Nov 18 2014, 04:27 PM
jaguar
Nov 18 2014, 04:03 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
I think there is an element here of Cameron getting any possible excuse in first! He is afterall a politician approaching an unforecastable general election.

Against the prophesy of a third global Armageddon is the continuing recovery in the US economy, forecast to grow by over 3% in 2015. Emerging and frontier economies are always more volatile than the first world economies but most are still growing even if the pace is lower and certainly there is increasingly effective market governance at least in Asia. The UK is still forcast to grow at around 2.9% in 2015, while finally the EU is stopping sitting on its hands wondering what to do and is showing signs through the ECB and Draghi, that they may start quantitative easing. It is not all doom and gloom.

On the other hand we have Islamic State, Ukraine v. Russia, Ebola and now Japan in recession which unsettles trading economies.

Global economic recovery is by no means certain but I think that Cameron is over stating the downside. So do the markets!
All just in preparation for the claim "you have done a good job so far, still a lot of risks and a way to go so don't let those Labour idiots, the ones that got us all into this mess, ruin all your hard work". It is predictable. It is the fear factor, but this time not of the unknown and that is Milli's problem, you see he has been fingered.
Ed Milliband is doing more for the Conservative government than he will ever know..
I think he knows Mary, he has been told often enough, but he is a Politician and they are all a bit power crazy.
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marybrown
Senior Member
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RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:49 PM
marybrown
Nov 18 2014, 04:37 PM
RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:33 PM
Major Sinic
Nov 18 2014, 04:27 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
All just in preparation for the claim "you have done a good job so far, still a lot of risks and a way to go so don't let those Labour idiots, the ones that got us all into this mess, ruin all your hard work". It is predictable. It is the fear factor, but this time not of the unknown and that is Milli's problem, you see he has been fingered.
Ed Milliband is doing more for the Conservative government than he will ever know..
I think he knows Mary, he has been told often enough, but he is a Politician and they are all a bit power crazy.
He can hardly string a sentence together...Can you imagine it..Can you?

We would be the laughing stock of the world..
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RJD
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Prudence and Thrift
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marybrown
Nov 18 2014, 04:53 PM
RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:49 PM
marybrown
Nov 18 2014, 04:37 PM
RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:33 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Ed Milliband is doing more for the Conservative government than he will ever know..
I think he knows Mary, he has been told often enough, but he is a Politician and they are all a bit power crazy.
He can hardly string a sentence together...Can you imagine it..Can you?

We would be the laughing stock of the world..
Well as Ken used to say "you have got to larf".
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papasmurf
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RJD
Nov 18 2014, 04:28 PM


You must admit Mr Smurf that that chappy IDS is doing a grand job, he has managed, in the face of all those vested interests to get hundreds of thousands of people off their idle arses and back into work, so he says. Mind you "work" what's that in the scheme of things?
Actually RJD he has done no such thing he is killing people at the rate of at least 250 a week, over a million and rising are using food banks, around one million people have been waiting up to a year for ESA/PIP decisions and he has cost the taxpayer over £8 billion and rising because his reforms just are not working.
Just a sample:-
http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/7447

Date: 17 November 2014
Authors: Andrew Hood
Publisher: Institute for Fiscal Studies

Over the course of this parliament, the government have made changes to benefits and tax credits that, at the time they were announced, were expected to reduce spending in 2014–15 by £19 billion relative to a world of no policy change. In fact, real spending (after adjusting for CPI inflation) will be only £2.5 billion lower in 2014–15 than it was in 2010–11. This observation explains why.

If we adjust for prices using the CPI, the move from RPI to CPI for uprating benefits (expected to save over £4 billion in 2014–15) did not bring about a cut in spending over time – rather it meant benefits were no longer expected to increase in real terms. So we’re left with around £15 billion of cuts to explain, compared to an actual fall in real terms spending of around £2.5 billion.

Over a third of the remaining £12.5 billion gap is down to higher spending on pensioner benefits. Combined spending on state pensions, pension credit, and universal pensioner benefits such as the winter fuel payment will be £5 billion higher in 2014–15 than in 2010–11. All of that increase is explained by the rising cost of state pensions. To some extent this reflects an ageing population, with the number getting the state pension up 400,000 over the period. But it is mostly the result of higher spending per pensioner, with each recipient getting nearly £500 a year more on average. This was, for the most part, planned – as each new cohort of pensioners retire, they benefit from past decisions giving them more generous entitlements than previous generations.

Once we strip out pensioner benefits, we’re left with around £7.5 billion of extra spending to explain. In order to help with that task, Table 1 shows real terms spending on major working-age benefits in 2010–11 and 2014–15, alongside announced cuts (excluding the move from RPI to CPI indexation).

Table 1. Changes in spending and announced cuts for some major working-age benefits

Posted Image



Notes: Spending figures adjusted for CPI inflation. Spending on employment and support allowance not shown as cuts announced by previous government. Disability living allowance figures include personal independence payment. Cut to JSA is from 1% uprating and is approximate.

Source: Department for Work and Pensions benefit expenditure tables, Office for Budget Responsibility policy measures database.

The first thing to draw from the table is that there is actually more than £7.5 billion of extra spending to explain, once you take account of the fact that spending on JSA has fallen by around £1.3 billion as a result of lower unemployment.

Housing benefit explains £3 billion of the extra spending. Despite announced cuts of over £2 billion, real terms housing benefit spending will be nearly £1 billion higher in 2014­–15 than 2010–11. This was unanticipated – the OBR’s welfare trends report shows expected spending in 2014–15 has risen by nearly £3 billion since their June 2010 forecast. As they explain, the private rented sector has grown faster than expected, private rents have grown faster than expected, and earnings have grown more slowly than expected – all of which increase housing benefit spending. That slower-than-expected earnings growth also increases tax credit spending. Government cuts to tax credits total £4.6 billion, but spending in 2014–15 is expected to be down less than £3 billion on its 2010–11 level.

It’s not all about macroeconomic conditions though. The difference between the £1.2 billion cut to DLA spending that was announced and the £1.6 billion increase in spending that is now expected reflects the significant delays to the government’s replacement of DLA with the less generous personal independence payment. And although the introduction of employment and support allowance is not included in the £19 billion of cuts (since it was announced by the previous government), it too has saved much less than expected (for reasons discussed here).

All this has important fiscal consequences. Working-age benefit spending has always been sensitive to the unemployment rate. But the rapid growth of housing benefit and tax credits over the couple of decades (documented in this briefing note published today) means that slow earnings growth now has the potential to push up spending too. Much of the hoped-for savings from the introduction of ESA have failed to materialise, and it is an open question whether the personal independence payment will be any different. Mr Osborne wants further cuts to social security spending to help reduce the deficit. He may end up having to make cuts just to stay on track.

Note: The DWP benefit expenditure tables https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2014 adjust spending figures for economy-wide inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) – in those terms spending is expected to be £5 billion higher in 2014–15 than 2010–11.




http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2014/11/12/iain-duncan-smith-to-meet-universal-credit-target-in-700-yea


Iain Duncan Smith to meet Universal Credit target in 700 years' time

By Adam Bienkov  Wednesday, 12 November 2014 3:42 PM

Ian Duncan Smith promised that more than a million people would be signed up to his universal credit scheme by April 2014, with twelve million signed up by 2017.

However, new figures released today reveal the DWP currently have just 17,850 people on their caseload.

This means that at the current rate of progress, it will take them almost 700 more years to meet their original target of twelve million.

I think by that point even Duncan Smith may have to admit that there are problems with the scheme.


Edited by papasmurf, Nov 18 2014, 05:11 PM.
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Affa
Senior Member
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RJD
Nov 18 2014, 08:01 AM
Second? 2nd. What about all those since the South Sea Bubble? Maybe not a crash but some form of economic malaise caused by global retrenchment brought about by distrust. Britain is no Island, must import or die, but we are probably now not the worse placed economy in the G20 to face the mini Tsunami. Italy will probably be washed away and take much of France with it.



Seen the latest news from France?

Posted Image

One swallow does not a Summer make, but it is worth noting because when it looked bad the right here in the UK didn't hesitate to draw comparisons to what Ed Miliband had lined up. You reap what you sow. - and can now instead agree that that the promise from Labour is more growth ........ can you?



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Affa
Senior Member
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Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 17 2014, 11:02 PM

Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
And do what exactly?

Cameron knows his gamble is going to fail, we have a growing economy (sic) but it has almost certainly been paid for with even more debt, increased productivity the real driver of genuine growth is nowhere to be seen.

And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.


It still hasn't registered with you that the country is among the wealthiest there are. The problem we have is that the wealth we record as a Nation is not being placed where it does most good for the Nation.
If it were then the opportunities for more people to share in this wealth creation AND increase it would escalate, business would be booming.

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Tigger
Senior Member
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Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 17 2014, 11:02 PM

Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
And do what exactly?

Cameron knows his gamble is going to fail, we have a growing economy (sic) but it has almost certainly been paid for with even more debt, increased productivity the real driver of genuine growth is nowhere to be seen.

And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.
Edited by Tigger, Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM.
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Deleted User
Deleted User

Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 17 2014, 11:02 PM

Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
And do what exactly?

Cameron knows his gamble is going to fail, we have a growing economy (sic) but it has almost certainly been paid for with even more debt, increased productivity the real driver of genuine growth is nowhere to be seen.

And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.


Call me a romantic fool but I dont think that making the rich richer and the poor poorer is the way to make this country great again !nono!
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Tigger
Senior Member
[ *  *  *  * ]
gansao
Nov 18 2014, 09:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.


Call me a romantic fool but I dont think that making the rich richer and the poor poorer is the way to make this country great again !nono!
Indeed, we did not end up in the present mess because the poor had to much money and the rich to little!

Someone will be disagreeing with that tomorrow morning........
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Deleted User
Deleted User

Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 10:01 PM
gansao
Nov 18 2014, 09:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.


Call me a romantic fool but I dont think that making the rich richer and the poor poorer is the way to make this country great again !nono!
Indeed, we did not end up in the present mess because the poor had to much money and the rich to little!

Someone will be disagreeing with that tomorrow morning........


Yes the baby boomers who had to make it the hard way through life and hate to see this former great country become a client state of the Fourth Reich.
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Deleted User
Deleted User

gansao
Nov 18 2014, 09:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.


Call me a romantic fool but I dont think that making the rich richer and the poor poorer is the way to make this country great again !nono!
Oh you romantic fool! ;D
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RJD
Member Avatar
Prudence and Thrift
[ *  *  *  * ]
Affa
Nov 18 2014, 07:45 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM
Tytoalba
Nov 17 2014, 11:02 PM

Do we play safe and believe him or do we just ignore him or stick our heads in the sand?
And do what exactly?

Cameron knows his gamble is going to fail, we have a growing economy (sic) but it has almost certainly been paid for with even more debt, increased productivity the real driver of genuine growth is nowhere to be seen.

And it's rather amusing that he can see a red light flashing on the dashboard but no one saw it flashing in 2007!
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.


It still hasn't registered with you that the country is among the wealthiest there are. The problem we have is that the wealth we record as a Nation is not being placed where it does most good for the Nation.
If it were then the opportunities for more people to share in this wealth creation AND increase it would escalate, business would be booming.

Then tell us how to garner this wealth in a sustainable manner and how to spend such in a more sensible manner. If you are thinking about Politicians picking winners they forget it. Best let Customers do the picking.

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RJD
Member Avatar
Prudence and Thrift
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gansao
Nov 18 2014, 09:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.


Call me a romantic fool but I dont think that making the rich richer and the poor poorer is the way to make this country great again !nono!
Nobodies intention and this phenomena, if a phenomena it is, started a very long time ago before the present Gov. was formed. This Gov. which has done a lot more than the last one to address "net disposable" by lifting tax thresholds has not made an impact and the problem, as we have seen, is not just financial it is also cultural, social, much to do with education and stable homes with the nurture of a, dare I say it, Mummy and Daddy. Throwing even more money at this issue will not alone solve any of the problems. We had less in the 1940s and achieved much greater social mobility, just look at what all those Grammar School kids from poor homes achieved.



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AndyK
Senior Member
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 08:24 AM
Affa
Nov 18 2014, 07:45 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 12:03 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Pay more in taxes and make more government cuts. Increased productiuvity, is not going to do it especially when the return in GDP is divided between the increasing numbers of our population, many opf whom are immigrants and their decendents.
Paying out more for the NHS and social services benefits will not help.
We need a hard nosed government making the hard nosed decisions . no matter which party it is in power, be it Labour, Concervatives ,UKIP Greens or or the raving loonies.
We need what will be seen as a 'nasty party' within the constraints of a possible revolution.
Weak governments produce weak countries. and weak peope.


It still hasn't registered with you that the country is among the wealthiest there are. The problem we have is that the wealth we record as a Nation is not being placed where it does most good for the Nation.
If it were then the opportunities for more people to share in this wealth creation AND increase it would escalate, business would be booming.

Then tell us how to garner this wealth in a sustainable manner and how to spend such in a more sensible manner. If you are thinking about Politicians picking winners they forget it. Best let Customers do the picking.

The big mistake was giving the QE money to the banks, because it went straight into the pockets of the rich.

It would have been better for everybody and the economy if they had given it to the people directly.
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RJD
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Prudence and Thrift
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AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 08:47 AM
RJD
Nov 19 2014, 08:24 AM
Affa
Nov 18 2014, 07:45 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep


It still hasn't registered with you that the country is among the wealthiest there are. The problem we have is that the wealth we record as a Nation is not being placed where it does most good for the Nation.
If it were then the opportunities for more people to share in this wealth creation AND increase it would escalate, business would be booming.

Then tell us how to garner this wealth in a sustainable manner and how to spend such in a more sensible manner. If you are thinking about Politicians picking winners they forget it. Best let Customers do the picking.

The big mistake was giving the QE money to the banks, because it went straight into the pockets of the rich.

It would have been better for everybody and the economy if they had given it to the people directly.
Really so they can spend such on importing more South Korean TVs? It would have been best spent, if it had to be spent at all, on that which makes for a better educated and trained workforce. We all bang on about rebalancing the economy and then switch focus on to how we can increase consumption. Making diamonds, vintage cars and property more expensive as it is considered a store of wealth is of no interest too me, but that has in the main improved the worth of assets that already exist in the UK. Getting the BofE to print £Squillions and bombing sink estates with this will only give the Koreans, Chinese, Japanese and Germans more work in their factories.
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papasmurf
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 08:55 AM
Really so they can spend such on importing more South Korean TVs?
So they would not need to make a choice between heating or eating, or paying the rent or eating.
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Affa
Senior Member
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 08:24 AM
Then tell us how to garner this wealth in a sustainable manner and how to spend such in a more sensible manner. If you are thinking about Politicians picking winners they forget it. Best let Customers do the picking.


lol ........ when it comes to picking winners, those making a fortune out of it are those rigging the system.
Politicians are bought, their paymasters determine how they act, what their ideology must be. The system of wealth distribution is controlled by the wealthiest, and they are not from Samaria.
The filter paper needs changing, only there isn't a replacement available prepared to let more filter down to where it is most needed.

Edited by Affa, Nov 19 2014, 11:25 AM.
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Deleted User

RJD
Nov 19 2014, 08:30 AM
gansao
Nov 18 2014, 09:56 PM
Tigger
Nov 18 2014, 09:51 PM
Tytoalba
Nov 18 2014, 11:09 AM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
More dozy wittering's, so the answer to a possible economic downturn is yet more of the tired rhetoric and screw the bottom end of society some more?

So far it's working a treat isn't it? We need to tackle the top end of society first otherwise any action is a waste of time, because after all shit runs downhill.


Call me a romantic fool but I dont think that making the rich richer and the poor poorer is the way to make this country great again !nono!
Nobodies intention and this phenomena, if a phenomena it is, started a very long time ago before the present Gov. was formed. This Gov. which has done a lot more than the last one to address "net disposable" by lifting tax thresholds has not made an impact and the problem, as we have seen, is not just financial it is also cultural, social, much to do with education and stable homes with the nurture of a, dare I say it, Mummy and Daddy. Throwing even more money at this issue will not alone solve any of the problems. We had less in the 1940s and achieved much greater social mobility, just look at what all those Grammar School kids from poor homes achieved.





Well I agree that the intention to increase the divide between rich and poor started long before this government but it is bleeding obvious to anyone who wants to see that this government has done nothing to redress the balance and arguably has accelerated it.
I also agree that the deliberate undermining of the nuclear family has had disastrous social consequences but once again this government has not even attempted to address it.
As for grammar schools , yes they did help social mobility in the less well off but grammar schools are only a part of it. You should know that in your days in was far easier to get an apprenticeship, there was far better government training schemes too.
You may not agree but the fact is that much of this was due to influence from trade unions who would press for better training in the fields that they covered and demanded more social obligations from governments ( unions =strikes, is simply not true).
Throwing more money at 'it' would be part of the solution...as long as the money was used correctly.
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papasmurf
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gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:26 PM

As for grammar schools , yes they did help social mobility in the less well off but grammar schools are only a part of it. You should know that in your days in was far easier to get an apprenticeship, there was far better government training schemes too.
I had no problem getting an apprenticeship back in 1965, because I had paid for a one year intensive engineering course myself at a technical college before I applied for the apprenticeship. (Several days a week that engineering course were from 9am until 9pm.)
Today neither the engineering course, the apprenticeship, or the factory where I did it exist.
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papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 12:38 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:26 PM

As for grammar schools , yes they did help social mobility in the less well off but grammar schools are only a part of it. You should know that in your days in was far easier to get an apprenticeship, there was far better government training schemes too.
I had no problem getting an apprenticeship back in 1965, because I had paid for a one year intensive engineering course myself at a technical college before I applied for the apprenticeship. (Several days a week that engineering course were from 9am until 9pm.)
Today neither the engineering course, the apprenticeship, or the factory where I did it exist.


True. My brother was a trainee engineer for the GPO which came with sandwich courses , city and guilds , ONC and HNC qualifications.
I was offered a diesel engineer ( not fitter) apprenticeship and ( like an idiot) turned it down then got an apprenticeship in the print industry( I wanted an apprenticeship as electrician but they were like gold dust)
The majority of my friends got apprenticeships in the motor industry, building trades and engineering.
I was on a day release scheme to train one day a week in one of the two massive print college buildings in London during my five year apprenticeship.
My other brother did a government adult training scheme as a carpenter and a friend did the same as a welder.
Try to get worthwhile certified training or apprenticeship nowadays.Good luck with that..
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papasmurf
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gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:50 PM

Try to get worthwhile certified training or apprenticeship nowadays.Good luck with that..
Quite. It will be interesting to see how long it takes me find a qualified gas fitter to connect my new gas hob and certificate it.
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AndyK
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papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 12:38 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:26 PM

As for grammar schools , yes they did help social mobility in the less well off but grammar schools are only a part of it. You should know that in your days in was far easier to get an apprenticeship, there was far better government training schemes too.
I had no problem getting an apprenticeship back in 1965, because I had paid for a one year intensive engineering course myself at a technical college before I applied for the apprenticeship. (Several days a week that engineering course were from 9am until 9pm.)
Today neither the engineering course, the apprenticeship, or the factory where I did it exist.
Apprenticeships were good, but we no longer have any large scale engineering businesses to run apprenticeship schemes.

The chicken must come before the egg.
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AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 01:16 PM
papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 12:38 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:26 PM

As for grammar schools , yes they did help social mobility in the less well off but grammar schools are only a part of it. You should know that in your days in was far easier to get an apprenticeship, there was far better government training schemes too.
I had no problem getting an apprenticeship back in 1965, because I had paid for a one year intensive engineering course myself at a technical college before I applied for the apprenticeship. (Several days a week that engineering course were from 9am until 9pm.)
Today neither the engineering course, the apprenticeship, or the factory where I did it exist.
Apprenticeships were good, but we no longer have any large scale engineering businesses to run apprenticeship schemes.

The chicken must come before the egg.


Apprenticeships and or training programmes do not have to only apply to large scale engineering industry.
I think that has been made plain in previous posts.

Also the question should asked WHY we do not have large scale engineering businesses
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papasmurf
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AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 01:16 PM
Apprenticeships were good, but we no longer have any large scale engineering businesses to run apprenticeship schemes.

A friend of mine who has his own garage has always had an apprentice out of only 4 employees. (It is the only way he can make sure all his employees can do MOTs and work on some of the "exotics" cars that get serviced and repaired in the garage.)
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RJD
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papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 09:00 AM
RJD
Nov 19 2014, 08:55 AM
Really so they can spend such on importing more South Korean TVs?
So they would not need to make a choice between heating or eating, or paying the rent or eating.
The objective is as always more jobs, better jobs, real jobs that create exportable products. It is certainly not about creating increased demand in factories outside of the UK.
Everyone agrees that the economy needs to be rebalanced, but nobody wants to do anything about it, they just want magic.
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RJD
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gansao
Nov 19 2014, 01:19 PM
AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 01:16 PM
papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 12:38 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:26 PM

As for grammar schools , yes they did help social mobility in the less well off but grammar schools are only a part of it. You should know that in your days in was far easier to get an apprenticeship, there was far better government training schemes too.
I had no problem getting an apprenticeship back in 1965, because I had paid for a one year intensive engineering course myself at a technical college before I applied for the apprenticeship. (Several days a week that engineering course were from 9am until 9pm.)
Today neither the engineering course, the apprenticeship, or the factory where I did it exist.
Apprenticeships were good, but we no longer have any large scale engineering businesses to run apprenticeship schemes.

The chicken must come before the egg.


Apprenticeships and or training programmes do not have to only apply to large scale engineering industry.
I think that has been made plain in previous posts.

Also the question should asked WHY we do not have large scale engineering businesses
Manufacture of mechanically engineered products consumes a lot of labour, but they do not necessarily produce much in the way of value added per person. It is well established that we can make better profit margins per unit of labour cost from Financial Services, but unfortunately that sector does not require those that have only manual dexterity on offer. It is also true that modern factories, particularly electronics, brown and white goods are so automated these days that they to do not require much labour, but a lot of capital equipment. The truth is that for a long time now we have made more profit from the employment of capital than from labour.
Our problem here in the UK and worldwide is not what to do with those with educations and skills, they find their niche, but the abundance and massive surplus of unskilled workers. Unless we get them some skills I doubt that there is an acceptable easy solution to that problem.

We have spent far too much of our energy arguing about the sharing of the pie and not enough on it's quality.

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jaguar
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papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 01:09 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 12:50 PM

Try to get worthwhile certified training or apprenticeship nowadays.Good luck with that..
Quite. It will be interesting to see how long it takes me find a qualified gas fitter to connect my new gas hob and certificate it.
Make sure He or She is Corgi or is it now Gas Safe Registered.

A friend of mine had a boiler fitted 18 months ago, by a so called qualified gas fitter, it packed up a couple of weeks ago, the fitter who replaced it said he had never seen such a cock-up.
Be aware.
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 05:16 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 01:19 PM
AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 01:16 PM
papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 12:38 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Apprenticeships were good, but we no longer have any large scale engineering businesses to run apprenticeship schemes.

The chicken must come before the egg.


Apprenticeships and or training programmes do not have to only apply to large scale engineering industry.
I think that has been made plain in previous posts.

Also the question should asked WHY we do not have large scale engineering businesses
Manufacture of mechanically engineered products consumes a lot of labour, but they do not necessarily produce much in the way of value added per person. It is well established that we can make better profit margins per unit of labour cost from Financial Services, but unfortunately that sector does not require those that have only manual dexterity on offer. It is also true that modern factories, particularly electronics, brown and white goods are so automated these days that they to do not require much labour, but a lot of capital equipment. The truth is that for a long time now we have made more profit from the employment of capital than from labour.
Our problem here in the UK and worldwide is not what to do with those with educations and skills, they find their niche, but the abundance and massive surplus of unskilled workers. Unless we get them some skills I doubt that there is an acceptable easy solution to that problem.

We have spent far too much of our energy arguing about the sharing of the pie and not enough on it's quality.



You seem to use 'we' a lot. However if one section of the economy makes a higher margin than the rest and that money is not spread across all of the society then there is no 'we' involved.
Anyone who believes that a society can be viable if wealth is created and contained by an elite section of that society without addressing the rest of it is deluded
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papasmurf
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jaguar
Nov 19 2014, 05:22 PM
Make sure He or She is Corgi or is it now Gas Safe Registered.
My gas bottle supplier has a list of certificated gas fitters. If they can't fit 10 feet of 8 mm gas pipe to a two ring gas hob with an 8mm stub coming out of it, connect the other end to the gas bottle reduction valve they would really need to be incompetent. (All of the gas bottle delivery drivers are also certificated and carry the leak testing equipment.)
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Affa
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 05:16 PM


We have spent far too much of our energy arguing about the sharing of the pie and not enough on it's quality.



The quality of what? The pie?
The pie being the wealth that is generated here in the UK, the product of UKplc.

There is not enough time or energy devoted to getting the best use (returns) of what the UK earns/acquires through commerce. Most goes towards 'affluence', the enrichment of the already rich. Nothing wrong with that if those at the lower end of the wealth table are enriched as well - which then makes for prosperity.
We do not have prosperity, or very little of it, when the potential for ALL to be more prosperous is lost through greed and corruption.


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RJD
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gansao
Nov 19 2014, 05:36 PM
RJD
Nov 19 2014, 05:16 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 01:19 PM
AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 01:16 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep


Apprenticeships and or training programmes do not have to only apply to large scale engineering industry.
I think that has been made plain in previous posts.

Also the question should asked WHY we do not have large scale engineering businesses
Manufacture of mechanically engineered products consumes a lot of labour, but they do not necessarily produce much in the way of value added per person. It is well established that we can make better profit margins per unit of labour cost from Financial Services, but unfortunately that sector does not require those that have only manual dexterity on offer. It is also true that modern factories, particularly electronics, brown and white goods are so automated these days that they to do not require much labour, but a lot of capital equipment. The truth is that for a long time now we have made more profit from the employment of capital than from labour.
Our problem here in the UK and worldwide is not what to do with those with educations and skills, they find their niche, but the abundance and massive surplus of unskilled workers. Unless we get them some skills I doubt that there is an acceptable easy solution to that problem.

We have spent far too much of our energy arguing about the sharing of the pie and not enough on it's quality.



You seem to use 'we' a lot. However if one section of the economy makes a higher margin than the rest and that money is not spread across all of the society then there is no 'we' involved.
Anyone who believes that a society can be viable if wealth is created and contained by an elite section of that society without addressing the rest of it is deluded
"We" is understood and is different than "all". I do not believe in the Communist dogma about each to his needs, that one failed miserably and ended up with bread queues and just the Apperatachiks eating caviar. That said there does need to be a greater equity, but that should not be on the basis that we encourage idleness. I have made the challenge here at least a dozen times with no sensible outcome, just tell me how you intend to garner ~£20b PA from the top and distribute this in a sustainable manner without detriment to the economy. You have already seen that the tax base has become narrower how narrow do you think you can push it?

As for the "we" yes we cannot leave it to the left to look for solutions, they only do the anger bit.
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 06:07 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 05:36 PM
RJD
Nov 19 2014, 05:16 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 01:19 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Manufacture of mechanically engineered products consumes a lot of labour, but they do not necessarily produce much in the way of value added per person. It is well established that we can make better profit margins per unit of labour cost from Financial Services, but unfortunately that sector does not require those that have only manual dexterity on offer. It is also true that modern factories, particularly electronics, brown and white goods are so automated these days that they to do not require much labour, but a lot of capital equipment. The truth is that for a long time now we have made more profit from the employment of capital than from labour.
Our problem here in the UK and worldwide is not what to do with those with educations and skills, they find their niche, but the abundance and massive surplus of unskilled workers. Unless we get them some skills I doubt that there is an acceptable easy solution to that problem.

We have spent far too much of our energy arguing about the sharing of the pie and not enough on it's quality.



You seem to use 'we' a lot. However if one section of the economy makes a higher margin than the rest and that money is not spread across all of the society then there is no 'we' involved.
Anyone who believes that a society can be viable if wealth is created and contained by an elite section of that society without addressing the rest of it is deluded
"We" is understood and is different than "all". I do not believe in the Communist dogma about each to his needs, that one failed miserably and ended up with bread queues and just the Apperatachiks eating caviar. That said there does need to be a greater equity, but that should not be on the basis that we encourage idleness. I have made the challenge here at least a dozen times with no sensible outcome, just tell me how you intend to garner ~£20b PA from the top and distribute this in a sustainable manner without detriment to the economy. You have already seen that the tax base has become narrower how narrow do you think you can push it?

As for the "we" yes we cannot leave it to the left to look for solutions, they only do the anger bit.


Your previous post recognised that ' idleness' is inevitable. If industry and commerce employs less people than there are looking for work then idleness will become a fact of future life. Do you think that the people who inevitably will be unemployed be abandoned?
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Affa
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 06:07 PM


As for the "we" yes we cannot leave it to the left to look for solutions, they only do the anger bit.

Industrial relations and growth in business activity have never been higher than when Blair was PM - being inclusive, having that stability, has that huge advantage.

You mention 'solutions', but ignore 'causes'. The causes of instability, crisis, unrest, conflict, can all be be found in Tory dogma - the dogma of greed and self serving short termism.




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Tigger
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RJD
Nov 19 2014, 05:16 PM
gansao
Nov 19 2014, 01:19 PM
AndyK
Nov 19 2014, 01:16 PM
papasmurf
Nov 19 2014, 12:38 PM

Quoting limited to 4 levels deep
Apprenticeships were good, but we no longer have any large scale engineering businesses to run apprenticeship schemes.

The chicken must come before the egg.


Apprenticeships and or training programmes do not have to only apply to large scale engineering industry.
I think that has been made plain in previous posts.

Also the question should asked WHY we do not have large scale engineering businesses
Manufacture of mechanically engineered products consumes a lot of labour, but they do not necessarily produce much in the way of value added per person. It is well established that we can make better profit margins per unit of labour cost from Financial Services, but unfortunately that sector does not require those that have only manual dexterity on offer. It is also true that modern factories, particularly electronics, brown and white goods are so automated these days that they to do not require much labour, but a lot of capital equipment. The truth is that for a long time now we have made more profit from the employment of capital than from labour.
Our problem here in the UK and worldwide is not what to do with those with educations and skills, they find their niche, but the abundance and massive surplus of unskilled workers. Unless we get them some skills I doubt that there is an acceptable easy solution to that problem.

We have spent far too much of our energy arguing about the sharing of the pie and not enough on it's quality.



Earth calling RJD.

Obviously the attractions of living on the planet Zog have clouded your judgement once again.

Perhaps you could explain or at least put into context how those blinkered, backward looking, regressive and foolishly hard working Germans have managed to build an economy around making goods that the World wants to buy? They even sell tat by the bucket load to thw Chinese

I'll just remind you again that they had a record trade surplus last year while we had the worst deficit since 1989.
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