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| Topic Started: Dec 2 2014, 08:11 AM (296 Views) | |
| RJD | Dec 2 2014, 08:11 AM Post #1 |
Prudence and Thrift
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Search as you may there is little that was good and lasting, but one thing that stands out and I sincerly thank him for:
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| AndyK | Dec 2 2014, 08:41 AM Post #2 |
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Senior Member
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I am not convinced staying out of the EURO was a good thing. |
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| papasmurf | Dec 2 2014, 09:09 AM Post #3 |
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Senior Member
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On a personal level I would have loved it if Britain had joined the Euro because at the time the exchange rate was around 66p for a €1, but since then the exchange rate has gone to over 90p for a €1 for a while and is still around 80p for a €1. I suspect Britain's exports would have suffered badly had we joined the Euro. |
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| Pro Veritas | Dec 2 2014, 09:12 AM Post #4 |
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Upstanding Member
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As long as the Euro is managed with only Germany's interests as paramount then joining the EU would be, and continues to be, economic suicide for Britain. All The Best |
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| Montjoie | Dec 2 2014, 09:31 AM Post #5 |
Regular Member
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Germans interests, or the long term people's interests? Either way, I don't see the UK joining that course. Edited by Montjoie, Dec 2 2014, 09:38 AM.
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| Pro Veritas | Dec 2 2014, 09:40 AM Post #6 |
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Upstanding Member
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Germany's interests. Please tell me you are not naive enough to think otherwise. I suggest you look at the "Are Germany the EU's 'bad boys'" thread Cymru started. The financial crisis that continues to grip the €urozone is one almost entirely deliberately perpetuated by Germany. All The Best |
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| Montjoie | Dec 2 2014, 09:45 AM Post #7 |
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Regular Member
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I did look at it. All I saw was yet another steaming pile of horse s*** like you say on your side of the Channel. The big baaad Deflation is out from the woods ready to devour the poor little countries. An article which calls fiscal responsibility a bad thing denotes a very biased view towards economics. People just don't get the Austrian's school of economics. You among others were brainwashed into thinking that devaluation and inflation were the only path to prosperity. And yet, with this reasoning, you only see the rich getting richer, and everybody else getting poorer. But yeah -on average- it would seem that everybody is better off. Cruel joke. Edited by Montjoie, Dec 2 2014, 09:46 AM.
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| The Buccaneer | Dec 2 2014, 09:47 AM Post #8 |
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Since Germany is effectively masquerading as the 'lender of last resort', isn't it understandable why they appear to be running the show ? The only other of Brown's sensible decisions was to allow the BOE to become independent, but then he immediately ruined that by removing their power to regulate the high st banks, handing that over to the utterly useless and pointless FSA ! |
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| Pro Veritas | Dec 2 2014, 10:08 AM Post #9 |
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Upstanding Member
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Germany is part of the EU and the €urozone. Germany's so called "fiscal responsibility" does not end at Germany's borders. Germany willingly exporting deflation and economic misery to the rest of the EU to ensure the prosperity of German exports is not even remotely "fiscally responsible". That you fail to understand that demonstrates that it is you that has been brainwashed. All The Best |
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| Tigger | Dec 2 2014, 11:29 AM Post #10 |
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Senior Member
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Frankly laughable!  Those evil scheming Germans also got to export billions of hard earned Euro's to support other nations who racked up large debts by borrowing money primarily from US banks who in one particular case (Goldman Sachs/Greece) actually took out a side bet that the Greeks would default! And what was that about brain washing again.............? |
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| Montjoie | Dec 2 2014, 01:02 PM Post #11 |
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Regular Member
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I'll take deflation and responsible spending any day over debt & consumption fueled bubbles (which -surprise- you'll have to repay one day with the interests on top of it). If you believe for a second that borrowing to allow people to buy more crap than they should will somehow yield good results in the long term, that's on you. Borrowing and price level scrambling via inflation will always lead to crisis. And crisis will always lead to wars when it affects the strongest players on the geopolitical level. Edited by Montjoie, Dec 2 2014, 01:04 PM.
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| AndyK | Dec 2 2014, 01:11 PM Post #12 |
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Senior Member
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Yes, that's the way I see it. If the UK had been in the EURO, we would have had to have an Ireland style bailout and massive austerity but at least we would not have had the mass immigration and we would now have a balanced budget. |
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| RJD | Dec 2 2014, 02:34 PM Post #13 |
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Prudence and Thrift
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It would be nice if the UK could get other poorer countries to join the £Sterling zone and depress the value of the currency and at the same time have no claims on the BofE. The average weighting effect on the value of the Euro means that Germany trades with prices subsidised by ~15% or more. Want to know why Germany is no longer The Sick Man of Europe, which it was in recent history, then look no further. Anyone who thinks that gains made on exchange rates are not part of the mix is ignorant of cross border cross currency business. PV is correct the Euro is a scam designed to benefit the country that now benefits the most from the EU, namely Germany. Who benefits the least from the EU? Why the UK of course. What Tig. desperately desires is for the UK to become a German vassal State, clearly he cannot forgive previous generations of Brits for depriving Germany of their 1,000 year Reich. Why he does not emigrate and become a German citizen is beyond me as he certainly hates the English and all they have stood for. |
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| Pro Veritas | Dec 2 2014, 02:37 PM Post #14 |
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Upstanding Member
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If we had been in the €uro we'd have needed a bailout AND still have had the immigration. All The Best |
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| RJD | Dec 2 2014, 02:37 PM Post #15 |
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Prudence and Thrift
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Had the UK adopted the Euro at it's time of formation at the exchange rates pertaining at that time then the UK would have experienced massive rates of unemployment and would have saddled the EZ with a very large persistent headache, nay nightmare. The UK would have bust the EZ. |
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| Affa | Dec 2 2014, 02:38 PM Post #16 |
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Senior Member
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A useless exercise in "what would have been" propaganda talk. Akin to "what it will be like if Labour get in" rhetoric so fondly practiced by those unable to tell accurately "what a mess this excuse of a government have made of the economy". |
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| RJD | Dec 2 2014, 02:53 PM Post #17 |
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Prudence and Thrift
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I can only report that which was the output of simulations appertaining to that event at that time. Brown was correct there are two big questions in his 5 tests; one what exchange rate, two are our economies converging or diverging? Get this wrong and there would be millions more out of work. Trouble is that there are still a lot of idiots who want to join the Euro and do not care what impact this would have on the economy. Maybe you have met a few? |
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| Tigger | Dec 2 2014, 02:56 PM Post #18 |
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Senior Member
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Well I have asked you before to back up with reputable sources that the Euro is undervalued by 15% I did not get a coherent answer back then and I do not expect to get one this time either. And your claim that Germany is no longer the "sick man of Europe" because of this alleged undervaluing is also bunk, you of course totally overlook the painful structural and economic reforms that were put in place plus the modernizing of German industry that made the current export boom possible. And allow me to knock your Little Englander hat off one more time, I admire what the Germans have done to their economy for one reason alone, IT WORKS! Not for them the pathetic and repetitive boom and bust cycles based on housing bubbles, credit cards and financial scams originating from the City, accounting tricks to paint false pictures and unaffordable give away's just before a general election. No, they go for balanced budgets, trade surpluses and sensible economic planning. I like and admire things that work don't you? Or do you allow petty nationalism to continually cloud what little judgement you have left? |
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| Tigger | Dec 2 2014, 02:59 PM Post #19 |
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Pure speculation, on the other hand the money shufflers would have had less toys to play with and eventually break. |
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| Affa | Dec 2 2014, 03:15 PM Post #20 |
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Senior Member
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You actually present circumstances under which the UK could have, and still possibly could, become part of the euro zone. Being in it is not all-bad, and not all-good, but managing it to our best advantage I guess is beyond the wit of our political class. |
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| RJD | Dec 2 2014, 03:51 PM Post #21 |
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Prudence and Thrift
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Believe in miracles? No I don't. We are already seeing the effect on PIIGS+France when the exchange rate is wrong and economies are not convergent. I suppose it does not matter about the millions out of work in the EZ as long as they all have Euro denominated benefits to keep them going. There is a lot more to a Currency Union than pieces of paper and get it wrong, which they usually do, and such wrecks lives. |
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| Affa | Dec 2 2014, 04:50 PM Post #22 |
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Senior Member
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You put up the reasons (part of the five) why we did not join - my post was to examine the result 'if the five conditions WERE met'. Your argument is saying what it would be like if we joined WITHOUT those conditions being met. Start from all conditions being met ........ what objections can there be? |
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| johnofgwent | Dec 2 2014, 05:28 PM Post #23 |
It .. It is GREEN !!
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i think the answer to that can be found in the early days of ireland's euro membership the republic of ireland found itself drifting away from the required state of financial standing and put its citizens through hell to correct the course, at the behest of the central eueopean bank. on pain of death for non compliance. A year or two later germany AND france found themselves drifting towards the same rocks, and were given the same stern command to come about or else. Sensing what it would do to the people of germany and france to heed those demands, both countries said "up yours" and neither were given the slightest retribution. Level Playing Field ? My Fragrant Viking Arse. |
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| ACH1967 | Dec 2 2014, 05:29 PM Post #24 |
Senior Member
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good points well made |
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| Tigger | Dec 2 2014, 07:48 PM Post #25 |
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Senior Member
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The really scary thing for the UK and it's leaches in the City is if the Hun imposed austerity does end up stopping reckless borrowing, profligate spending and tax evasion on an industrial scale, we'll be stuffed and a debt laden financial wreck off the coast of Western Europe, then what? Note. Greece last year recorded it's first ever budget surplus. |
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| Affa | Dec 3 2014, 02:27 AM Post #26 |
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It has bothered me too Tiger! It has been the success of the 'City' that made most things possible and appear as good times - were the City to be contained and no better, no worse than any other centre, it's reputation for bad practice confirmed, then the UK loses its only real source of wealth .......... should we stop complaining about their bonuses, their greed, and taking on the chin. Sod that. Edited by Affa, Dec 4 2014, 01:19 PM.
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| krugerman | Dec 3 2014, 01:39 PM Post #27 |
Regular Member
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On the subject of Gordon Brown leaving politics, I guarantee that in years to come he will be remembered as the western leader who showed the rest of the world what to do after the financial crisis hit, but alas I fear the history books probably wont get the true perspective until perhaps after Gordon has gone. This is what the New York Times stated on the 12th October 2008 "Has Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, saved the world financial system?" "O.K., the question is premature — we still don’t know the exact shape of the planned financial rescues in Europe or for that matter the United States, let alone whether they’ll really work. What we do know, however, is that Mr. Brown and Alistair Darling, the chancellor of the Exchequer (equivalent to our Treasury secretary), have defined the character of the worldwide rescue effort, with other wealthy nations playing catch-up." The view from abroad (those nasty foreigners) is often so different to the view from Britain, dominated as it is by right wing leanning press, and where nothing good ever seems to be said about a Primeminister who is regarded by many as the one who "led the way" after the financial crisis. When Gordon Brown left office in May 2010, the recession was over, growth had allready returned and was acceleratng, but unfortunatelly the British public perceived that the international crisis was Gordons fault, and we got the coalition, the rest is history, growth went into reverse, promise after promise broken, cost of living crisis, savage cuts, the poorest hit the hardest, and more cuts to come. |
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| Affa | Dec 3 2014, 01:49 PM Post #28 |
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| Pro Veritas | Dec 3 2014, 02:09 PM Post #29 |
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Upstanding Member
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Anyone with an IQ in double-figures can answer that. No, he hasn't; all he has done is delayed the collapse, meaning that when it does come we will have wasted years of resources on "sticking plaster solutions" to what is in effect a terminal cancer. Anyone who thinks Brown saved anything, other than his own arse is delusional. All The Best |
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| Affa | Dec 3 2014, 02:22 PM Post #30 |
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Senior Member
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I agree with you saying that the rescue has been temporary, that by retaining the system 'in tact' the faults in it were also retained - and will almost certainly reappear in a repeat crisis ..... if the system isn't altered. By this I mean the Capitalist system. But to get back to G Brown - he did save the 'World' from an immediate and complete economic collapse, one where debts got cancelled, and savings, pensions etc got eradicated. He did his part, it will fall to others to do their part and imprint a conscience on capitalists. |
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| C-too | Dec 3 2014, 05:32 PM Post #31 |
Honourable Member
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Anyone with more than a single brain cell knows there is plenty of speculation on this issue. In 2008 there were an awful lot of people stumbling about, not knowing what to do with what was probably the worst international financial meltdown at least since the great depression. I believe that depression was the only alternative at the time, and no one wanted that and Brown avoided it. IMO credit should be given where it is due. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4yT0KAMyo |
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| krugerman | Dec 3 2014, 07:32 PM Post #32 |
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This is what professor Paul Krugman said at the time, professor Krugman been a Nobel prize winning economist, and lecturer at both Princeton and the London School of Economics _____________________________________________________________ "The Brown government has moved aggressively to shore up troubled banks. This has potentially put taxpayers on the hook for large future bills, but the financial situation has stabilized. Mr. Brown has backed the Bank of England, which, like the Federal Reserve, has engaged in unconventional moves to free up credit. And he has shown himself willing to run large budget deficits now, even while scheduling substantial tax increases for the future" "All of this seems to be working. Leading indicators have turned positive, suggesting that Britain, whose competitiveness has benefited from the devaluation of the pound, will begin an economic recovery well before the rest of Europe" "Meanwhile, David Cameron, the Conservative leader, has had little to offer other than to raise the red flag of fiscal panic and demand that the British government tighten its belt immediately" |
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