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Scotland rules.....ok
Topic Started: Feb 4 2015, 09:47 AM (411 Views)
krugerman
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As things currently stand, the chances of a Conservative victory in the general election are very slim, indeed virtually impossible, with almost all polls still putting Labour fractionally ahead, the Tories have a lot of work to do.

But that s only half the story

The third party of the United Kingdom after May s election, according to all opinion polls, is going to be the Scottish Nationalists, and by a long way ahead of the Liberal Democrats, various polls including one by Lord Ashcroft suggest that the SNP will win all but around 9 or 10 Scottish constituencies, giving them perhaps as many as 50 seats.

The mathematics speak for themselves, unless there is a vast movement of opinion, we are not going to have a Conservative government :) , and feeding todays average poll of polls into the swingometer, a general election tomorrow would result in Labour been 1 seat short of a majority.

It appears that even if there were to be some movement towards the Conservatives if voters felt the economic situation was improving, it still would not be enough, there needs to be a colossal shift in opinion.

The bottom line is that the SNP have categorically stated that they will not work with the Conservatives, I would advise Cameron to start working on his resignation speech.
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Steve K
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A busted flush you say?

Sure looks like it, IMHO a Lab/Lib coalition is most likely. A formal coalition with the SNP would be death to the Labour party in England thereafter
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RJD
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krugerman
Feb 4 2015, 09:47 AM
As things currently stand, the chances of a Conservative victory in the general election are very slim, indeed virtually impossible, with almost all polls still putting Labour fractionally ahead, the Tories have a lot of work to do.

But that s only half the story

The third party of the United Kingdom after May s election, according to all opinion polls, is going to be the Scottish Nationalists, and by a long way ahead of the Liberal Democrats, various polls including one by Lord Ashcroft suggest that the SNP will win all but around 9 or 10 Scottish constituencies, giving them perhaps as many as 50 seats.

The mathematics speak for themselves, unless there is a vast movement of opinion, we are not going to have a Conservative government :) , and feeding todays average poll of polls into the swingometer, a general election tomorrow would result in Labour been 1 seat short of a majority.

It appears that even if there were to be some movement towards the Conservatives if voters felt the economic situation was improving, it still would not be enough, there needs to be a colossal shift in opinion.

The bottom line is that the SNP have categorically stated that they will not work with the Conservatives, I would advise Cameron to start working on his resignation speech.
I suggest you do not crow as you should know that historically the Opposition loses support in the final run up to a GE. That said I expect a Labour + SNP Gov. and as the man said the other day best sell up and move to France as it must be better even with failed Hollande. Salmond and Milliband will take us back to the early 1970s they have learned nothing.
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Affa
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How can 50 Scottish MPs rule?
It's not possible, 50 MPs from any party cannot rule.
If it were not Party politics there would be even less influence from such a minority, but as we saw with the Student Fees vote ...... Tories will vote against policies they in reality do agree with and should support. It's only then when the minority can sway the outcome - so blame the Conservatives for any eventual SNP effect ........ putting party before country is what they do.



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scorpio
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The chances of the Conservatives, or Labour, gaining a majority government are slim.

The most likely result will be another "hung parliament". If that occurs then that's Mr Cameron's EU referendum lost and shredded.

This GE, is not one that is easy to predict. Over the next two months it may become clearer as to which minor parties will align with the major parties in coalition.

It will be interesting to observe what develops.
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RJD
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The question has to be asked: as Milliband and Balls are so hopeless and proven incompetents, why is Cameron not 10 points ahead in the Polls?
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Lewis
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krugerman
Feb 4 2015, 09:47 AM
As things currently stand, the chances of a Conservative victory in the general election are very slim, indeed virtually impossible, with almost all polls still putting Labour fractionally ahead, the Tories have a lot of work to do.

But that s only half the story

The third party of the United Kingdom after May s election, according to all opinion polls, is going to be the Scottish Nationalists, and by a long way ahead of the Liberal Democrats, various polls including one by Lord Ashcroft suggest that the SNP will win all but around 9 or 10 Scottish constituencies, giving them perhaps as many as 50 seats.

The mathematics speak for themselves, unless there is a vast movement of opinion, we are not going to have a Conservative government :) , and feeding todays average poll of polls into the swingometer, a general election tomorrow would result in Labour been 1 seat short of a majority.

It appears that even if there were to be some movement towards the Conservatives if voters felt the economic situation was improving, it still would not be enough, there needs to be a colossal shift in opinion.

The bottom line is that the SNP have categorically stated that they will not work with the Conservatives, I would advise Cameron to start working on his resignation speech.
Hopefully Scammers will have already booked the removal men as his days at No. 10 are increasingly appearing to be numbered.

Good riddance to bad rubbish!
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scorpio
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RJD
Feb 5 2015, 05:54 PM
The question has to be asked: as Milliband and Balls are so hopeless and proven incompetents, why is Cameron not 10 points ahead in the Polls?
The answer is simple.

Although people remember the good, and bad, but mainly the bad, of the previous Gordon Brown, government, it fades into the background, when compared to the performance both good, and bad, but mainly bad, of the current Cameron government.

The performance of the current government, is prominent, in most people's minds. And particularly the negative or bad aspects of the government, which because they are more recent are perceived to be worse than the bad aspects of the previous government, which have faded into the background over the past 5 years.

Remember

Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.
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Tigger
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RJD
Feb 5 2015, 05:54 PM
The question has to be asked: as Milliband and Balls are so hopeless and proven incompetents, why is Cameron not 10 points ahead in the Polls?
Because Cameron is the best of a very bad bunch in the Tory party, it's hard to think of a more insipid and frankly disconnected group of politicians than the present lot of mummies boys and daddies money non entities.
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Steve K
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Tigger
Feb 5 2015, 11:08 PM
RJD
Feb 5 2015, 05:54 PM
The question has to be asked: as Milliband and Balls are so hopeless and proven incompetents, why is Cameron not 10 points ahead in the Polls?
Because Cameron is the best of a very bad bunch in the Tory party, it's hard to think of a more insipid and frankly disconnected group of politicians than the present lot of mummies boys and daddies money non entities.
And even Cameron has lost it. He did well getting the Conservatives to the brink of electability so we got rid of Gordon but he has failed to address the old school nasty elements in his party. He nearly made them electable and now he's let them become unelectable.

He needs an instant economic miracle now or further follies from the two Eds. The latter is the less unlikely

In retrospect they lost the next election when they said "we are all in this together" and did everything but live to that
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Tigger
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Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:14 PM

He needs an instant economic miracle now or further follies from the two Eds. The latter is the less unlikely

A good election to lose in my opinion, the Tories could have used the last five years to help the real economy of goods and services get back on it's feet, but instead they bailed out the finance sector who's interests are fixed on short term profits hence the latest and inevitable private debt binge and asset price inflation. It's staggering to think that they came to the conclusion that the answer to a debt laden meltdown is yet more private debt.

My feeling is we need an economic catastrophe to reform politics, the good news, if you can call it that, is the Tories have already planted the seeds of that catastrophe.
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Steve K
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But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
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Tytoalba
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scorpio
Feb 5 2015, 10:51 PM
RJD
Feb 5 2015, 05:54 PM
The question has to be asked: as Milliband and Balls are so hopeless and proven incompetents, why is Cameron not 10 points ahead in the Polls?
The answer is simple.

Although people remember the good, and bad, but mainly the bad, of the previous Gordon Brown, government, it fades into the background, when compared to the performance both good, and bad, but mainly bad, of the current Cameron government.

The performance of the current government, is prominent, in most people's minds. And particularly the negative or bad aspects of the government, which because they are more recent are perceived to be worse than the bad aspects of the previous government, which have faded into the background over the past 5 years.

Remember

Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.
There has been much said about the Conservative party only having one MP in Scotland, but how many Labour MPs will there be after the next general election where their traditional support has evaporated, and they are likely to be nearly wiped out by the SNP.
Predicting the future can only be a guess, and depends so much on events. Who, for example, could have forecast the drop in oil prices, which if it had occurred at the last referendum may well have made a big difference to the outcome, and in Labours standing today.
Someone will always call it right, and boast afterwards that they did, but for the most part they don't.
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krugerman
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There is only one rule after a general election which results in a hung Parliament, that The Queen invites the leader of the largest party to form a government, and what that leader then so chooses to do in order to form a coalition is really up to them.

So for example we could still have a Lab-LD coalition after May, even if the Liberal Democrats have less seats than the Scottish Nationalists, and in actual fact this would be my preferred option over a Lab-SNP coalition.

The SNP are a radical and progressive party with good ideas, they could work reasonably well with Labour except for just one thing - they are Scottish nationalist, and in favour of breaking up the United Kingdom, thats the only thing which sticks in my throat, and its why Milliband might be better off attempting a Lab-LD coalition, should he be in a position to make a choice.

The other problem for the Tories is, who exactly would they attempt to form another coalition with ?, it seems at this stage that UKIP may not win any seats, another coalition with the Lib Dems would likely finish that party off through sheer desertion and unpopularity, which leaves the 8 members of the Democratic Unionist Party.

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Tytoalba
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krugerman
Feb 6 2015, 09:18 AM
There is only one rule after a general election which results in a hung Parliament, that The Queen invites the leader of the largest party to form a government, and what that leader then so chooses to do in order to form a coalition is really up to them.

So for example we could still have a Lab-LD coalition after May, even if the Liberal Democrats have less seats than the Scottish Nationalists, and in actual fact this would be my preferred option over a Lab-SNP coalition.

The SNP are a radical and progressive party with good ideas, they could work reasonably well with Labour except for just one thing - they are Scottish nationalist, and in favour of breaking up the United Kingdom, thats the only thing which sticks in my throat, and its why Milliband might be better off attempting a Lab-LD coalition, should he be in a position to make a choice.

The other problem for the Tories is, who exactly would they attempt to form another coalition with ?, it seems at this stage that UKIP may not win any seats, another coalition with the Lib Dems would likely finish that party off through sheer desertion and unpopularity, which leaves the 8 members of the Democratic Unionist Party.

Can I put in a puff for the English Democrats party, just to add to the mix?

http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk
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krugerman
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The most likeliest outcome ?

(1) The English Democrats winning a seat in the general election

(2) The Pepper Pig Party winning a seat in the Israeli Knesset

answers on a postcard to Pinky & Perky c/o The BBC
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Tigger
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Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:43 PM
But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
I disagree and more importantly so does the BoE, as reported in the Independent unsecured borrowing, credit cards loans etc has risen at an annualised rate of 8.3% the fastest since 2006 in fact, and the EY Item Club made the comment that this was a credit frenzy reminiscent of the mid 2000's.

What is more to the point which political party is going to have the guts to say this unaffordable nonsense has to stop?
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Affa
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We've reach a point near the end of this Parliament and after all the accusations and talk (which ridiculously still persists) about the last government NOT doing enough to rein in borrowing, and curb Bankers excesses, we have run out of time for these in Government to actually do do something - these too have NOT done what was told was required. Worse, they have ensured it continues with £bns in QE liquidity gifts.


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Steve K
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Tigger
Feb 6 2015, 11:27 AM
Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:43 PM
But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
I disagree and more importantly so does the BoE, as reported in the Independent unsecured borrowing, credit cards loans etc has risen at an annualised rate of 8.3% the fastest since 2006 in fact, and the EY Item Club made the comment that this was a credit frenzy reminiscent of the mid 2000's.

What is more to the point which political party is going to have the guts to say this unaffordable nonsense has to stop?
It's a mistake to think the rate of change is a measure of the absolute level of debt or that a one month change figure in a minor category is any guide to the underlying position.

I'm sure that you will be able to work out that the latest household debt (incl credit card debt) figure of £1.463T (for Nov 2014) http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/january-2015/ is a stuff all fractional % over the May 2010 figure of £1.460T http://themoneycharity.org.uk/media/july-2010.pdf and in fact less in real terms

Oh and credit card debt rose from £58.9B to £61.0B over the same period showing both that it is a marginal element of total private debt and that the 3.6% increase over 4 years is actually a DECREASE in real terms.

What a bugger facts are for myth merchants
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Tigger
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Steve K
Feb 6 2015, 05:09 PM
Tigger
Feb 6 2015, 11:27 AM
Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:43 PM
But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
I disagree and more importantly so does the BoE, as reported in the Independent unsecured borrowing, credit cards loans etc has risen at an annualised rate of 8.3% the fastest since 2006 in fact, and the EY Item Club made the comment that this was a credit frenzy reminiscent of the mid 2000's.

What is more to the point which political party is going to have the guts to say this unaffordable nonsense has to stop?
It's a mistake to think the rate of change is a measure of the absolute level of debt or that a one month change figure in a minor category is any guide to the underlying position.

I'm sure that you will be able to work out that the latest household debt (incl credit card debt) figure of £1.463T (for Nov 2014) http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/january-2015/ is a stuff all fractional % over the May 2010 figure of £1.460T http://themoneycharity.org.uk/media/july-2010.pdf and in fact less in real terms

Oh and credit card debt rose from £58.9B to £61.0B over the same period showing both that it is a marginal element of total private debt and that the 3.6% increase over 4 years is actually a DECREASE in real terms.

What a bugger facts are for myth merchants
A decrease? ;D I'm slightly more inclined to agree with the very latest figures from the BoE which are rather alarming.


And er, just the small point of rising rates of credit with stagnant or falling wages in those last few years you've highlighted, did you forget that you need increased earnings to pay off ever increasing amounts of debt? And as for the rate of inflation that's never been manipulated has it?

Now where did I leave my plasma telly and tickets to Florida? ;-)
Edited by Tigger, Feb 6 2015, 08:38 PM.
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Steve K
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Tigger
Feb 6 2015, 08:33 PM
Steve K
Feb 6 2015, 05:09 PM
Tigger
Feb 6 2015, 11:27 AM
Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:43 PM
But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
I disagree and more importantly so does the BoE, as reported in the Independent unsecured borrowing, credit cards loans etc has risen at an annualised rate of 8.3% the fastest since 2006 in fact, and the EY Item Club made the comment that this was a credit frenzy reminiscent of the mid 2000's.

What is more to the point which political party is going to have the guts to say this unaffordable nonsense has to stop?
It's a mistake to think the rate of change is a measure of the absolute level of debt or that a one month change figure in a minor category is any guide to the underlying position.

I'm sure that you will be able to work out that the latest household debt (incl credit card debt) figure of £1.463T (for Nov 2014) http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/january-2015/ is a stuff all fractional % over the May 2010 figure of £1.460T http://themoneycharity.org.uk/media/july-2010.pdf and in fact less in real terms

Oh and credit card debt rose from £58.9B to £61.0B over the same period showing both that it is a marginal element of total private debt and that the 3.6% increase over 4 years is actually a DECREASE in real terms.

What a bugger facts are for myth merchants
A decrease? ;D I'm slightly more inclined to agree with the very latest figures from the BoE which are rather alarming.


And er, just the small point of rising rates of credit with stagnant or falling wages in those last few years you've highlighted, did you forget that you need increased earnings to pay off ever increasing amounts of debt? And as for the rate of inflation that's never been manipulated has it?

Now where did I leave my plasma telly and tickets to Florida? ;-)


Well let's have a link to that Bank of England data you claim is so alarmist then

I'm saying you're either making it up or focussing on a narrow subset of the £1.46T debt
Edited by Steve K, Feb 6 2015, 10:41 PM.
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Affa
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Steve K
Feb 6 2015, 10:39 PM


I'm saying you're either making it up or focussing on a narrow subset of the £1.46T debt

I looks like you're defending one for the same thing you accuse the other of, to me.

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Steve K
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Affa
Feb 7 2015, 12:02 AM
Steve K
Feb 6 2015, 10:39 PM


I'm saying you're either making it up or focussing on a narrow subset of the £1.46T debt

I looks like you're defending one for the same thing you accuse the other of, to me.

I've twice now posted published stats from a recognised source that say different to what Tigger keeps saying we should all trust that he's read somewhere

If he won't produce his evidence I feel free to disbelieve him
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Rich
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Tigger
Feb 6 2015, 11:27 AM
Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:43 PM
But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
I disagree and more importantly so does the BoE, as reported in the Independent unsecured borrowing, credit cards loans etc has risen at an annualised rate of 8.3% the fastest since 2006 in fact, and the EY Item Club made the comment that this was a credit frenzy reminiscent of the mid 2000's.

What is more to the point which political party is going to have the guts to say this unaffordable nonsense has to stop?
Surely it is up to the the so called responsible lenders to tell the borrowers that enough is enough....you are borrowing and spending more than your incomes can service.....most housewives know this tenet it is called common sense.
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johnofgwent
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Affa
Feb 4 2015, 03:22 PM
How can 50 Scottish MPs rule?



Best you take a look back five years to what Alex Salmand was demanding of Gordon Brown as his price for keeping him in Number Ten. Even Brown had the sense to see tghe deal was untenable and he rang up Liz and said "best offer Dave the job of PM"
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Steve K
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Rich
Feb 7 2015, 01:45 AM
Tigger
Feb 6 2015, 11:27 AM
Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:43 PM
But private debt is not climbing. As posted earlier today it is less now in real terms than it was in May 2010
I disagree and more importantly so does the BoE, as reported in the Independent unsecured borrowing, credit cards loans etc has risen at an annualised rate of 8.3% the fastest since 2006 in fact, and the EY Item Club made the comment that this was a credit frenzy reminiscent of the mid 2000's.

What is more to the point which political party is going to have the guts to say this unaffordable nonsense has to stop?
Surely it is up to the the so called responsible lenders to tell the borrowers that enough is enough....you are borrowing and spending more than your incomes can service.....most housewives know this tenet it is called common sense.
Yes but what if you are a responsible lender and the choice becomes go out of business or match what the reckless banks are doing?

Labour not only allowed Northern Rock and others to use an unsustainable business model to steal business from responsible banks, it underwrote that reckless model. Now if you're say Lloyds bank and you have a network of branches etc to keep going and your major revenue stream (loans) is dwindling what are you going to do. Especially if the Chancellor and his ventriloquists doll Mervyn King say it's all OK

So yes some blame on the major banks who should have spoken out but they were put into an impossible position by total failure of government to do its job.
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Affa
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johnofgwent
Feb 7 2015, 10:26 AM
Affa
Feb 4 2015, 03:22 PM
How can 50 Scottish MPs rule?



Best you take a look back five years to what Alex Salmand was demanding of Gordon Brown as his price for keeping him in Number Ten. Even Brown had the sense to see tghe deal was untenable and he rang up Liz and said "best offer Dave the job of PM"

What you describe is Brown putting the country before the Party and his own ambition. If every leader had this same Patriotism, and I include Salmon, no problem ........ All it would take for the 50 votes to be meaningless on SNP demands is for the Opposition benches to votye with the Government - Country before Party.

Nobody fought harder to preserve the Union than did Labour ........ Salmons would get more from Cameron than he ever could from Labour.

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Steve K
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Is it worth pointing out that far from Brown putting the country before any deal with the SNP, the truth was the SNP only had 6 MPs to bring to the table. In government forming terms they had sod all weight.

2015 may be different
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RJD
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Steve K
Feb 5 2015, 11:14 PM
Tigger
Feb 5 2015, 11:08 PM
RJD
Feb 5 2015, 05:54 PM
The question has to be asked: as Milliband and Balls are so hopeless and proven incompetents, why is Cameron not 10 points ahead in the Polls?
Because Cameron is the best of a very bad bunch in the Tory party, it's hard to think of a more insipid and frankly disconnected group of politicians than the present lot of mummies boys and daddies money non entities.
And even Cameron has lost it. He did well getting the Conservatives to the brink of electability so we got rid of Gordon but he has failed to address the old school nasty elements in his party. He nearly made them electable and now he's let them become unelectable.

He needs an instant economic miracle now or further follies from the two Eds. The latter is the less unlikely

In retrospect they lost the next election when they said "we are all in this together" and did everything but live to that
The "all in it together" was a silly sound-bite as it was clear that only those than can make much of a contribution. The Takers just stand on the side-line whining that their net take has been constrained. Of course the economy needs rebalancing they agree, of course we cannot continue to borrow to fund current consumption, but please make sure that I do not have to do any lifting as I am a Taker not a Giver.


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Heinrich
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New Labour will be able to form a minority "government" with the aid of Scottish National votes but, unusually, Parliament will need to become paramount as new legislation will require the consent of elected members rather than a ruling party and those like the Liberal Democrats who have kept the Tories in power for years.
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