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The Lottery Election
Topic Started: Feb 9 2015, 12:53 PM (92 Views)
papasmurf
Senior Member
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Interesting analysis and report on the impending general election:-

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/pick-your-numbers


What makes 2015 a contender for these titles is that our electoral system seems to be collapsing before our eyes. In a new report,
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file/Lottery_Election_ONLINE_Feb2015.pdf
for the Electoral Reform Society, Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde uses polling data to demonstrate how relatively small shifts in support among the parties can have dramatic effects on the shape of the next Parliament, and therefore the next government.



Indeed, some of the outcomes predicted in this report seem so random as to suggest voters would be as well buying a lottery ticket as being handed a ballot paper. As Professor Curtice notes, this is an election where it looks like there will be no relationship between votes cast and seats won.



Among the findings are:


•UKIP could come 6th in seats but 3rd in votes, and SNP could come 6th in votes but 3rd in seats
•The SNP could get a game-changing 50-odd seats or a paltry few depending on relatively small shifts in the vote
•It will probably be easier for Labour to win a majority than it will be for the Conservatives. Even with its difficulties in Scotland, Labour is likely to need a 5 point lead to win a majority, whereas the Conservatives will require a 7 point one
•A 7 point improvement in the Lib Dem vote to 15% would have little effect on Labour’s chances of a majority, but means the Conservatives would need as much as a 10-point lead
•Norwich South is the Green Party’s best hope of gaining a second Westminster seat



Electoral reformers rarely miss a chance to point out the problems with First Past the Post – but the arguments have never seemed less theoretical and more tangible than they do now. Using a two-party system to conduct six-party politics just won’t work. The current voting system is not fit for purpose.
- See more at: http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/pick-your-numbers#sthash.U0YCY8UJ.dpuf
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Affa
Senior Member
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I don't think there has ever been an election in my time where the 'left' didn't receive many more votes than did the 'right'. And yet in my time we have had more right-wing governments than leftist.

How silly this system is, and how damning it is that the Establishment seem loath to correct it.

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Steve K
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Once and future cynic
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papasmurf
Feb 9 2015, 12:53 PM
Yes it is. Thanks
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Alberich
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Alberich
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I have always favoured "first past the post" elections; principally because at least you know what you are getting. At least, that used to be the case when elections produced either a Labour or a conservative government. But there has undoubtedly been a sea change in British voting. The increasing popularity of the minor parties, such as UKIP, the Scots Nats, the greens et al, means that the likelihood of the two main parties ever getting a commanding majority again is receding by the day; and coalitions ever more likely.

So on reflection I am beginning to come round to the idea that some form of P.R. is probably the fairest way to go. And to pick you up on one point, Affa. If only English votes were counted, then conservatives usually attract more votes than do Labour. It is the unfairness of the election constituency system that militates against them, which would have been corrected were it not for the petty vindictiveness of the Cleggmeister. So, with the proviso that something HAS to be done to reduce the number of MPs from Scotland (who are now virtually self governing,) then P.R. seems to be the way forward.
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Affa
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Alberich
Feb 9 2015, 05:11 PM
And to pick you up on one point, Affa. If only English votes were counted, then conservatives usually attract more votes than do Labour.

Yes, it is generally believed that the Tories 'own' England, it is another of those media inspired propaganda sound bites that assume truth - however.

Quote:
 
The last three Labour governments in particular have all enjoyed comfortable overall majorities, which the loss of Scottish seats would not have overturned. In 1997 Labour’s majority was 178, of which only 56 were Scottish seats; in 2001 their majority was 166, of which 55 seats were Scottish; and in 2005 Labour’s majority was 65, of which 40 were Scottish seats.
Nor does Labour’s recent electoral record in England suggest that the Tories would possess an innate advantage there. In 1997, for example, Labour obtained a majority in England alone of 127; in 2001 they had a majority there of 117; and in 2005 they secured a majority of 43. True, in the 2010 General Election the Conservatives won 297 seats in England, compared to 191 obtained by Labour. But this was off the back of thirteen years of Labour government, and the worst recession in living memory.


http://www.consoc.org.uk/2012/02/would-the-conservatives-benefit-from-scottish-independence-michael-everett-constitution-society-researcher/
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Affa
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In 1997 Labour obtained a majority in England alone of 127; in 2001 they had a majority there of 117; and in 2005 they secured a majority of 43

Amazing how the Tory boasts just keep getting deflated ....... just like their ego.

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