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No Tory 'wetness': "Spending review will still leave poor families worse off" - IFS, Res Foundation; IFS says 50-50 chance Oz will have to revisit spending plans, Res Foundation: some families to lose £3k by 2020
Topic Started: Nov 27 2015, 07:13 AM (158 Views)
skwirked
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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/26/autumn-statement-ifs-warns-on-tax-rises-spending-cuts-george-osborne


Quote:
 

[...]

In its analysis of the autumn statement and spending review, the IFS said other commentators had been wrong to describe the chancellor’s measures as an end to austerity. The IFS director, Paul Johnson, said: “This is not the end of austerity. This spending review is still one of the tightest in post-war history.”

Some 2.6 million working families stood to lose an average £1,600 as a result of benefit changes due to come into force under the universal credit system, while 1.9 million would be better off by £1,400, the IFS noted.

[...]

Cuts to universal credit – the benefit set to replace tax credits for most claimants in the last years of the parliament – are to go ahead. That decision will cost working households £1,000 on average in 2020 and the losses could rise to £3,000 for some families, the Resolution Foundation said.

[...]

Both thinktanks rejected the Treasury’s criticism, saying that it was legitimate to compare an old system with a new system in order to estimate how families would fare in the future.

“In the long run, people will be worse off under universal credit than they would have been if the current system continued,” said IFS economist Stuart Adam, responding to the Treasury comments.

A source close to work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith claimed the Resolution Foundation report was an example of scaremongering, as people will not see immediate cash losses to their welfare payments.

The source said: “It is a static analysis that does not take into account behavioural change, or other changes such as the new childcare offer.”

She added the same applied to the IFS analysis, but highlighted its admission that no family will take an immediate cash hit and that people will be protected in cash terms.

[...]

The IFS noted that total government spending was due to fall from 40.9% of national income in the last tax year to 36.5% by the end of the decade. As part of that, spending on non-pension benefits was being cut to the lowest level in 30 years relative to national income.

The thinktank also pointed out that the government’s commitment to health spending was tiny by historical standards. Johnson said: “The 3% cumulative increase in health spending over the next five years is not far off the average annual increase in spending in the last 50 years.”

Still, the IFS director said the scale of the chancellor’s austerity drive was less than had been implied before May’s election and again at an emergency budget in July.

Johnson said: “There is no question that the cuts will be less severe than implied in July. The gap with what one might have expected, based on the Conservative manifesto, is substantially greater.”


The Tories get good PR with Giddy the crappy botching 'wet' builder and yet, get away with implementing this damned travesty of a budget.

McDonnell makes another easily ignored fail-attack on the Tories while Corbyn gets walked over by his own. Terrible days.
Edited by skwirked, Nov 27 2015, 07:16 AM.
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Lewis
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Yes all smoke and mirrors. People won't be fooled once these measures hit them in the pockets.
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papasmurf
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Lewis
Nov 27 2015, 08:03 AM
Yes all smoke and mirrors. People won't be fooled once these measures hit them in the pockets.
If Osborne thinks Universal Credit will be fully rolled out by 2020 he must be mad. Most of the current claimants of Working Tax Credit will have reached retirement age before that happens.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/467232/universal-credit-statistics-to-17-sept-2015.pdf
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disgruntled porker
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Lewis
Nov 27 2015, 08:03 AM
Yes all smoke and mirrors. People won't be fooled once these measures hit them in the pockets.
I bet they will.
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RJD
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disgruntled porker
Nov 27 2015, 08:12 AM
Lewis
Nov 27 2015, 08:03 AM
Yes all smoke and mirrors. People won't be fooled once these measures hit them in the pockets.
I bet they will.
Well as the vast majority, those in jobs, voted for such reforms at the last GE and understand that removing the deficit will require some inconvenience to many, I am not sure they will have a basis to complain. Where is the alternative strategy from the Usuals? Is there one?

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Lewis
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RJD
Nov 27 2015, 08:30 AM
disgruntled porker
Nov 27 2015, 08:12 AM
Lewis
Nov 27 2015, 08:03 AM
Yes all smoke and mirrors. People won't be fooled once these measures hit them in the pockets.
I bet they will.
Well as the vast majority, those in jobs, voted for such reforms at the last GE and understand that removing the deficit will require some inconvenience to many, I am not sure they will have a basis to complain. Where is the alternative strategy from the Usuals? Is there one?

Well they were lied to. We had Stammers bleating that the incompetents had no plans to cut tax credits. Thus proving beyond any shadow of doubt that this government is full of liars and are not to be trusted or believed.
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skwirked
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Yeah spot on really, they did actually grossly mislead those in jobs ....and there is no proof that those with jobs voted for the Tories. It is a myth unless someone can prove otherwise. Anecdotally I can say I have met many resentful unemployed Tories who blame Lab for the deficit making them so.
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Steve K
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Duplicate topic? http://w11.zetaboards.com/UK_Debate_Mk_2/topic/11428685/ :rubchin:



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Alberich
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The government is committed to reducing the vast welfare bill, and was elected on that premise. Cutting welfare has to effect those ON welfare, and while that may seem hard, it can encourage the unemployed to seek work and become self supporting, and those who are quite happy to remain on welfare to reconsider their options. We spend far too much on welfare, and tax credits are the most illogical scheme ever devised. The only criticism I have of the autumn statement is that he chickened out of starting to reform it.

But as the OBR forecast is at best optimistic, he might yet be forced into reconsidering this apparent generosity. We shall see!
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skwirked
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Alberich
Nov 27 2015, 05:29 PM
The government is committed to reducing the vast welfare bill, and was elected on that premise. Cutting welfare has to effect those ON welfare, and while that may seem hard, it can encourage the unemployed to seek work and become self supporting, and those who are quite happy to remain on welfare to reconsider their options. We spend far too much on welfare, and tax credits are the most illogical scheme ever devised. The only criticism I have of the autumn statement is that he chickened out of starting to reform it.

But as the OBR forecast is at best optimistic, he might yet be forced into reconsidering this apparent generosity. We shall see!
And you answer to overly low pay is..?

Scrap the min wage?
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RJD
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Alberich
Nov 27 2015, 05:29 PM
The government is committed to reducing the vast welfare bill, and was elected on that premise. Cutting welfare has to effect those ON welfare, and while that may seem hard, it can encourage the unemployed to seek work and become self supporting, and those who are quite happy to remain on welfare to reconsider their options. We spend far too much on welfare, and tax credits are the most illogical scheme ever devised. The only criticism I have of the autumn statement is that he chickened out of starting to reform it.

But as the OBR forecast is at best optimistic, he might yet be forced into reconsidering this apparent generosity. We shall see!
I doubt after turning 180 degrees he would do so again. He got himself smacked and turned what was potentially, for him, a nail in the coffin of his career, to an advantage. His career comes first and for him it was expedient to trade delays in reducing the deficit for potential future votes. George is the builder he has told us so often enough. Pity he neglects repairing and underpinning the foundations. I am surprised that the Usuals have not come out and praised their new man George.


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disgruntled porker
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Quote:
 
The government is committed to reducing the vast welfare bill, and was elected on that premise.


They were elected on a lot of premises that they reneged on.
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Alberich
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Alberich
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skwirked
Nov 27 2015, 05:30 PM
Alberich
Nov 27 2015, 05:29 PM
The government is committed to reducing the vast welfare bill, and was elected on that premise. Cutting welfare has to effect those ON welfare, and while that may seem hard, it can encourage the unemployed to seek work and become self supporting, and those who are quite happy to remain on welfare to reconsider their options. We spend far too much on welfare, and tax credits are the most illogical scheme ever devised. The only criticism I have of the autumn statement is that he chickened out of starting to reform it.

But as the OBR forecast is at best optimistic, he might yet be forced into reconsidering this apparent generosity. We shall see!
And you answer to overly low pay is..?

Scrap the min wage?
Actually, no. Osborne has indicated the way to deal with low pay by setting the "living wage" at a much higher level than many expected. He should do more, and set it higher still. That way, work starts to make sense; even for those wedded to welfare.
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skwirked
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'those wedded to welfare'

Define this please.

Those on tax credits? Those on JSA/UC, for how long?

Also evidence says setting the min wage too high too quickly will damage employment figures.

It would be preferable if we had functioning Wage and Works Councils + a good living wage and a focus on creating more high VA jobs. Also better to use directly targeted measures to help the poor; income tax cuts are a scam that benefit the better-off.

Remember: those on tax creds earnings are mostly below the PA threshold and will not benefit from further tax cuts.

Edited by skwirked, Nov 28 2015, 02:01 PM.
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RJD
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Alberich
Nov 28 2015, 01:23 PM
skwirked
Nov 27 2015, 05:30 PM
Alberich
Nov 27 2015, 05:29 PM
The government is committed to reducing the vast welfare bill, and was elected on that premise. Cutting welfare has to effect those ON welfare, and while that may seem hard, it can encourage the unemployed to seek work and become self supporting, and those who are quite happy to remain on welfare to reconsider their options. We spend far too much on welfare, and tax credits are the most illogical scheme ever devised. The only criticism I have of the autumn statement is that he chickened out of starting to reform it.

But as the OBR forecast is at best optimistic, he might yet be forced into reconsidering this apparent generosity. We shall see!
And you answer to overly low pay is..?

Scrap the min wage?
Actually, no. Osborne has indicated the way to deal with low pay by setting the "living wage" at a much higher level than many expected. He should do more, and set it higher still. That way, work starts to make sense; even for those wedded to welfare.
The question is how high dare it be set without destroying an unacceptable number of jobs. At the rates decided by Osborne for the future there are already a lot, particularly in the retail sector who are grumbling. I would like to see the increases in wage rates accompanied by a reduction in basic tax rates and the reduction or removal of the taxes on jobs. But we have to get rid of the deficit first, unless of course you are happy to increase borrowings.
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