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Oldham West And Royton 3rd Dec
Topic Started: Nov 27 2015, 09:18 PM (1,428 Views)
Opinionater
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A safe Labour seat or is it, all eyes on UKIP?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34946969

Could they pull it off, if it rains would that help UKIP.
Edited by Opinionater, Nov 28 2015, 08:06 PM.
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Opinionater
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Bookies have

Labour at 4/11
UKIP 2/1
Tories 150/1

I would think the Tories would be happy to sit back on this one.
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Steve K
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Definitely one to watch.

If Labour do badly the Corbyn wing will say it's because their candidate wasn't one of theirs, if he does well they'll say it's an endoresement of Corbyn. Any vote that UKIP get will be heralded by the Telegraph and Express that Farage has overcome his midyear wobble. The Libs and Tories might not even attend the result announcement

Hopefully the RMLP candidate will win by a landslide
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Rich
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Steve K
Nov 27 2015, 09:25 PM
Definitely one to watch.

If Labour do badly the Corbyn wing will say it's because their candidate wasn't one of theirs, if he does well they'll say it's an endoresement of Corbyn. Any vote that UKIP get will be heralded by the Telegraph and Express that Farage has overcome his midyear wobble. The Libs and Tories might not even attend the result announcement

Hopefully the RMLP candidate will win by a landslide
I was surprised to learn that Mr Corbyn has decided to stay away from the place as his planned vote raising visit has been deemed to be counter productive by his advisors......nuff said.

http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2015-11-27/corbyn-pulls-out-of-oldham-campaign-visit/
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Tytoalba
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Opinionater
Nov 27 2015, 09:18 PM
A safe Labour seat or is it, all eyes on UKIP?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34946969

Could they pull it off, if it rains would that help UKIP.
The recent immigration figures and Corbyns conflict with his own party, plus the intervention of the French Prime minister calling for all MPs to support Cameron and the French in their war against Isis, could well swing it in favour of UKIP.
The Large immigrant population of Muslims are likely to support Corbyns stance, for they are hardly likely to want islamists to be bombed.
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Opinionater
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Could be a very close call this one.
I think UKIP could even take it.
It's going to make no difference to who governs and that's the reason I think UKIP are in with a shout.
Conservative and Lib Dem voters have nothing to lose and could unseat a Labour safe seat. I can see many Tories who realise they can't win voting UKIP.
As for Labour voters, I don't see them having much motivation to go out to vote and if it rains well .....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-bickley-ukip-candidate-for-oldham-by-election-poses-a-real-threat-to-labours-heartland-a6752266.html
Edited by Opinionater, Dec 3 2015, 07:42 AM.
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Rich
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I know this will rub some peoples backs up the wrong way, but lose...and loose are two very different words, sorry for my pedantry but it niggles me when I see it.
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papasmurf
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Rich
Nov 28 2015, 10:43 PM
I know this will rub some peoples backs up the wrong way, but lose...and loose are two very different words, sorry for my pedantry but it niggles me when I see it.
It annoys me as well, I wonder what word the people who use loose when the mean lose, use when they mean loose.
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RJD
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Rich
Nov 28 2015, 10:43 PM
I know this will rub some peoples backs up the wrong way, but lose...and loose are two very different words, sorry for my pedantry but it niggles me when I see it.
Well I have a problem with "quite" and "quiet". I am also not good at spelling, so thank goodness for the online Spellchecker. I find that my aged arthritic fingers often hit too many keys and the medication fuddles so some sentences as badly formed and stilted. So bloody what as long as the reader gets the gist? Such mistakes for me pale into insignificance compared with the brutal use of logical fallacies masquerading for proof on this forum. Now that really does rankle and the greatest insult of all is the ease with with some Posters shoot the Messenger if they believe they do not like the message. Such may be able to spell correctly without the need of software support, but they cannot think straight.

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Opinionater
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Rich
Nov 28 2015, 10:43 PM
I know this will rub some peoples backs up the wrong way, but lose...and loose are two very different words, sorry for my pedantry but it niggles me when I see it.
I stand corrected, will edit my post.


http://www.elearnenglishlanguage.com/blog/english-mistakes/loose-vs-lose/
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Opinionater
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On topic, got to be an interesting result
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Steve K
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A massive win for the moderate Labour Candidate with 60% of votes and UKIP will be very very disappointed

RMLP got 141 :thumbsup:
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Cymru
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Oldham by-election: 'Nobody anticipated a victory on this scale'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

I recall people were predicting a close battle and the end of Jeremy Corbyn if Labour lost this by-election.

How wrong those people were.

Not only were Labour 11,000 votes ahead of second placed Ukip, they also increased their vote share.
Edited by Cymru, Dec 4 2015, 05:59 AM.
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Lewis
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Cymru
Dec 4 2015, 05:42 AM
Oldham by-election: 'Nobody anticipated a victory on this scale'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

I recall people were predicting a close battle and the end of Jeremy Corbyn if Labour lost this by-election.

How wrong those people were.

Not only were Labour 11,000 votes ahead of second placed Ukip, they also increased their vote share.
Yes good result for Labour. Maybe Corbyn isn't the terrorist sympathiser that Scammers likes to make out in reality.
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papasmurf
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Personally I think Cameron's terrorist sympathiser comment, and his refusal to apologise for it was a factor in the win.
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skwirked
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More proof that all this Corbyn is the devil crap is pure hokum.
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RJD
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Has anyone visited Oldham lately? If you do you will despair. Clearly UKIP were not the solution they were looking for and the depth of their frustration with life is such that they think only a clapped out bunch of Marxists can improve their lives via increases in welfare bungs. Desperate people in desperate times.

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johnofgwent
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It .. It is GREEN !!
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Steve K
Dec 4 2015, 01:02 AM
A massive win for the moderate Labour Candidate with 60% of votes and UKIP will be very very disappointed

RMLP got 141 :thumbsup:
UKIP blames the postal vote and the number of Asian voters who use it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

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johnofgwent
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It .. It is GREEN !!
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RJD
Dec 4 2015, 07:49 AM
Has anyone visited Oldham lately? If you do you will despair. Clearly UKIP were not the solution they were looking for and the depth of their frustration with life is such that they think only a clapped out bunch of Marxists can improve their lives via increases in welfare bungs. Desperate people in desperate times.

Not recently. I tend to drive past it with my foot full down in case I am mugged or worse these days

Mind you it has been that way for a while with a very different demographic.

Oldham used to be the assembly line for the (pointless IMO) Ferranti stab at mainstream PC production with its "Advance 86" range, and the unlikeliest spinoff of the last century, the single board computer relational processor (a relational database on a chip). I spent many a long day driving from Cwmbran to Oldham and back, to attend design meetings in the oh so romantically named "Cairo Mill" the edges of whose steps to the upper floors were worn smooth. It was hard not to imagine the hordes of children pressed into a life akin to penal servitude in that hell hole whose lives spent treading those stone steps had eroded them.

Yes, I remember Oldham.

And not in a good way.

But the moorland's supposed to be quite a nice place for kids to go and play ...
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RJD
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He may blame the postal vote. It could be true that there is fraud on a grand scale. But sufficient for such a majority I doubt. My concern is the mindset of such people who voted Labour. My God they must either be in desperate dire straights or thoroughly confused.
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Happy Hornet
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Sounds like sour grapes from UKIP supporters and Corbyn detractors to me, a case of the people have spoken, the b@stsrds!

The thought of Corbyn as PM terrifies me but there is no arguing with this result.
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skwirked
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Happy Hornet
Dec 4 2015, 08:05 AM
Sounds like sour grapes from UKIP supporters and Corbyn detractors to me, a case of the people have spoken, the b@stsrds!

The thought of Corbyn as PM terrifies me but there is no arguing with this result.
And Cam is less terrifying than Corbyn?

Then again you did IIRC say you voted for Major. ;-)
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skwirked
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!jk! !jk!

Just a thought: how tf does Facade know that 99% of one ballot box was all-Muslim votes?


!jk!
Edited by skwirked, Dec 4 2015, 09:57 AM.
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Tytoalba
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johnofgwent
Dec 4 2015, 07:50 AM
Steve K
Dec 4 2015, 01:02 AM
A massive win for the moderate Labour Candidate with 60% of votes and UKIP will be very very disappointed

RMLP got 141 :thumbsup:
UKIP blames the postal vote and the number of Asian voters who use it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

It could be an anti bombing vote by an ethnic minority. Are thee any figures for the make up of Oldham's racial and religious demographic make up?
You may well view the question as racist ,but in the light of the known support that exists for IS in Britain it may be relevant to our future.
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papasmurf
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Tytoalba
Dec 4 2015, 09:56 AM
Are thee any figures for the make up of Oldham's racial and religious demographic make up?
Some data here:-

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/oldhamwestandroyton/
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AndyK
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This from over a year ago....

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/oldham-named-election-fraud-hotspot-6479987
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disgruntled porker
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According to that, it's not exactly a hotbed of unemployed living off the state tit. Most own their own homes, even if mortgaged. Even distribution of age groups. Strange Labour should have done so well and the Tories so badly. Whatever are these people thinking?
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Steve K
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As I predicted the Corbnynista's hail a massive victory for a Liz Kendall man as being an endorsement of JC.  ::)

I also see Farage ends a shit week for him whining on the BBC about the irrelevance that Labour got postal votes when UKIP just didn't get very many votes at all. He should STFU, look at the facts, compare the on screen performances of that nut Nuttall and the very sane UKIP candidate and start promoting the latter by getting rid on the Nuttall-ites. Even better he should make his peace with Carswell.
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AndyK
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Steve K
Dec 4 2015, 10:24 AM
As I predicted the Corbnynista's hail a massive victory for a Liz Kendall man as being an endorsement of JC.  ::)

Yes, that is quite amusing.:)
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RJD
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disgruntled porker
Dec 4 2015, 10:23 AM
According to that, it's not exactly a hotbed of unemployed living off the state tit. Most own their own homes, even if mortgaged. Even distribution of age groups. Strange Labour should have done so well and the Tories so badly. Whatever are these people thinking?
Exactly, they are either not thinking or incapable of doing so. Go drive around that area and form your own opinion.
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Happy Hornet
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Skwirked, I'm no fan of Cameron, far from it, I just find him underwhelming rather than frightening. Just once I would like someone I could believe in to vote for rather than just trying to figure out who is the lesser of several evils.

UKIPs response sums up for me exactly why they lost, they blame everyone but themselves and fail to exercisie the unflinching self criticism essential for success in any endeavor. I think that the myth of UKIP being the party of the working class has been exposed as just that. Just like all the other parties they are out if touch, they only talk to each other.
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Opinionater
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Well this is what the results say to me.

1 Corbyn at worst is not going to hold the Labour Party vote back and at best is a very credible leader who could well win the next election, yes there are people out there who think he is the solution and not the problem. Very worrying in the long term. I suspect his support will grow.

2. UKIP are still holding up and may well replace the Tories in Labour held seats as the main challengers.

3. The views of the people are clearly not forcast by the voice of the press, I fear they are making a winner of an underdog.

Corbyn as PM, you wouldn't want to go there would you?
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RJD
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Dec 4 2015, 12:54 PM
Well this is what the results say to me.

1 Corbyn at worst is not going to hold the Labour Party vote back and at best is a very credible leader who could well win the next election, yes there are people out there who think he is the solution and not the problem. Very worrying in the long term. I suspect his support will grow.

2. UKIP are still holding up and may well replace the Tories in Labour held seats as the main challengers.

3. The views of the people are clearly not forcast by the voice of the press, I fear they are making a winner of an underdog.

Corbyn as PM, you wouldn't want to go there would you?
No I would recommend all those that can leave do so as quickly as possible as I doubt that a recovery after his dead hands on the economy will ever be possible.
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A massive endorsement to the Labour party in Oldham.
No matter what the Corbynphobics spout , it effectively is a victory for him and the party he leads.
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marybrown
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johnofgwent
Dec 4 2015, 07:50 AM
Steve K
Dec 4 2015, 01:02 AM
A massive win for the moderate Labour Candidate with 60% of votes and UKIP will be very very disappointed

RMLP got 141 :thumbsup:
UKIP blames the postal vote and the number of Asian voters who use it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

I must say I agree with him..the ''postal vote'' is open to too much abuse..
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Tytoalba
Dec 4 2015, 09:56 AM
johnofgwent
Dec 4 2015, 07:50 AM
Steve K
Dec 4 2015, 01:02 AM
A massive win for the moderate Labour Candidate with 60% of votes and UKIP will be very very disappointed

RMLP got 141 :thumbsup:
UKIP blames the postal vote and the number of Asian voters who use it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

It could be an anti bombing vote by an ethnic minority. Are thee any figures for the make up of Oldham's racial and religious demographic make up?
You may well view the question as racist ,but in the light of the known support that exists for IS in Britain it may be relevant to our future.


Don't blame it on the Tories
Don't blame it on scare stories
Who cares who's fault the war is.
Blame it on the muslims.


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marybrown
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gansao
Dec 4 2015, 03:39 PM
Tytoalba
Dec 4 2015, 09:56 AM
johnofgwent
Dec 4 2015, 07:50 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deephttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

It could be an anti bombing vote by an ethnic minority. Are thee any figures for the make up of Oldham's racial and religious demographic make up?
You may well view the question as racist ,but in the light of the known support that exists for IS in Britain it may be relevant to our future.


Don't blame it on the Tories
Don't blame it on scare stories
Who cares who's fault the war is.
Blame it on the muslims.


Well I think he's quite right on this occasion this is the future of voting in our country..
Bent by the immigrant vote.. !wav!
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Opinionater
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gansao
Dec 4 2015, 03:15 PM
A massive endorsement to the Labour party in Oldham.
No matter what the Corbynphobics spout , it effectively is a victory for him and the party he leads.
Got to agree with you there, but it doesn't make it a good thing.
What it does tell you is how likely people are going to be ready to vote for him.
What we need now is a Tory marginal to come up, let's see what happens when the Tories are in the game. Labour were up against UKIP, be good to see how they stand against the Tories, would you not agree.
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marybrown
Dec 4 2015, 03:45 PM
gansao
Dec 4 2015, 03:39 PM
Tytoalba
Dec 4 2015, 09:56 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deephttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373


Don't blame it on the Tories
Don't blame it on scare stories
Who cares who's fault the war is.
Blame it on the muslims.


Well I think he's quite right on this occasion this is the future of voting in our country..
Bent by the immigrant vote.. !wav!




Posted Image

Fair enough
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Oddball
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papasmurf
Dec 4 2015, 07:38 AM
Personally I think Cameron's terrorist sympathiser comment, and his refusal to apologise for it was a factor in the win.
I don't think Corbyn has ever been an ISIS sympathiser, do however believe he just 'wishes the nasty guys would change their mind-set, or just go away'. Oh, Corbyn, if wishes were hosses.
Edited by Oddball, Dec 4 2015, 03:58 PM.
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