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| Trump officials might be expecting EU to fall apart this year, US envoy says | |
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| Topic Started: Jan 14 2017, 02:14 AM (847 Views) | |
| Cymru | Jan 14 2017, 02:14 AM Post #1 |
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Alt-Right
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trump-officials-might-be-expecting-eu-to-fall-apart-this-year-us-envoy-says/2017/01/13/26b2d47c-d748-11e6-a0e6-d502d6751bc8_story.html?utm_term=.9fff07f0e123 Interestingly Le Pen paid a visit to Trump Tower recently. Frexit on the cards? Edited by Cymru, Jan 14 2017, 02:14 AM.
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| Rich | Jan 14 2017, 02:28 AM Post #2 |
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Senior Member
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One has to wonder what expert pollsters will predict for 2017 regarding the EU, of course, the lesser plebs who actually get to vote don't matter...or do they?
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| Oddball | Jan 14 2017, 09:13 AM Post #3 |
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Rich - As usual the plebs only matter at election time, or when 'Winters of Discontent' or revolution, stir at the status quo. The widening and straightening of boulevards and streets in the capital cities that started during the 19th century under the supervision of the likes of Haussmann, was as much to render control of the throughfares by the authorities as anything else. |
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| Steve K | Jan 14 2017, 10:21 AM Post #4 |
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Once and future cynic
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Trump can 'expect' what he wants but remember he's also expecting Mexico to give him all the money he needs to build a wall. |
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| Affa | Jan 14 2017, 02:57 PM Post #5 |
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The EU will survive, and in many ways be the better for the difficulties it will overcome. |
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| Rich | Jan 14 2017, 07:12 PM Post #6 |
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Only if it learns to become flexible and world friendly. |
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| Tigger | Jan 14 2017, 07:24 PM Post #7 |
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It is already World Friendly (?), but I suspect you have no idea what you meant by that......... |
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| Tigger | Jan 14 2017, 07:29 PM Post #8 |
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Senior Member
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Had a few days in Germany visiting my new grandson and no one seems especially bothered about recent global "shocks", from their perspective it's the Anglo World having all the big problems as the bitter fruits of free for all capitalism and neo liberal selfishness divide once united countries and give rise to radicalism, and lets face it the Germans should know......... |
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| The Buccaneer | Jan 16 2017, 10:26 PM Post #9 |
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I wouldn't put it past the USA to contrive a situation where by trading differentials, they didn't manage to engineer a situation whereby Mexico did pay for the construction of such a wall. |
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| The Buccaneer | Jan 16 2017, 10:27 PM Post #10 |
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And ? |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 10:28 PM Post #11 |
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That's not the impression I am getting from Germany. Appendage:
Edited by Phoenix One UK, Jan 16 2017, 10:30 PM.
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| Tigger | Jan 16 2017, 10:28 PM Post #12 |
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The? |
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| The Buccaneer | Jan 16 2017, 10:29 PM Post #13 |
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No it isn't, it is a protectionist organisation, which is WHY it takes at least 10 YEARS to get any trade deal, often much longer. just look at the facts before you keep repeating such crap. |
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| Tigger | Jan 16 2017, 10:32 PM Post #14 |
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Senior Member
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Perhaps, but I've not got a pen pall in Brandenberg-Gorden. |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 10:34 PM Post #15 |
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Whether he will or not, can or not, the fact is that just his saying it was enough to see their shares drop.
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| Rich | Jan 16 2017, 10:50 PM Post #16 |
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That is exactly why I have used that "special" button. |
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| Tigger | Jan 16 2017, 10:53 PM Post #17 |
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But others can see my replies to your "wisdom". Can't we?
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| Tigger | Jan 16 2017, 10:58 PM Post #18 |
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They'll go up again at some point, and people will still be buying cars, unless of course you know different........... |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 11:05 PM Post #19 |
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So, you are an optimist for Germany but pessimist for UK. Sorry, but I don't buy your argument. It's full of holes. |
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| Steve K | Jan 16 2017, 11:07 PM Post #20 |
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Once and future cynic
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Could that be because he knows Germany unlike us will still be in the world's biggest trading bloc come 2019? No one expects you to be a rocket scientist Ph 1 but that does seem like something even a simpleton could grasp |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 11:11 PM Post #21 |
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I seem to recall reading something that stated the UK would surpass Germany in a few years post Brexit. Me, I adopt a wait and see position on that point for both UK and Germany. Appendage:
Edited by Phoenix One UK, Jan 16 2017, 11:16 PM.
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| Tigger | Jan 16 2017, 11:17 PM Post #22 |
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Their economy has solid foundations and has balanced budgets, we are a debt ridden housing bubble relying on foreign investment to keep our heads above water. We need to get real and quick. |
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| Steve K | Jan 16 2017, 11:17 PM Post #23 |
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Once and future cynic
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I'd love to see a link to such a prediction and any underpinning rationale |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 11:19 PM Post #24 |
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Added appendage to post. See supplied link. Others exist if you do not like the source. Surf. |
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| Steve K | Jan 16 2017, 11:25 PM Post #25 |
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Once and future cynic
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All comes back to the same IMF report and dimwits that don't understand that 2018 will be here and they predict higher growth than the UK then for the Euro area and specifically Germany and France I did tell you to read it. Go on have another try, Table 1 is an easy enough read (but maybe not what you want to read) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/update/01/pdf/0117.pdf |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 11:31 PM Post #26 |
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The date of report linked is January 16, 2017, so it cannot be the same report. |
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| Steve K | Jan 16 2017, 11:36 PM Post #27 |
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Once and future cynic
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No but your Sun article quotes the IMF and my link is to their updated assessment That Germany, France and the Euro area will grow faster than the UK in 2018 and given that Germany and France start from higher GDP per capita then for the Sun to say "the UK would surpass Germany in a few years post Brexit." was typical Sun reader fodder. |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 11:40 PM Post #28 |
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The Sun's article is dated 19th July 2016, and it was not the only publication to run the story. I also noted a reader comment saying something about hearing it on BBC that same day. Your pdf link is dated January 16, 2017, so I cannot accept it being the same report. To big a gap, and markets are changing all the time. |
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| Steve K | Jan 16 2017, 11:45 PM Post #29 |
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Once and future cynic
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I agree it's not the same report but because it's a later version of the one supposedly used to back the Sun reader article then it's more valid |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 16 2017, 11:49 PM Post #30 |
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But how valid can it really be in a post Brexit UK? There is no way the IMF can make a forecast on it given not even they know the terms on which the UK will exit the EU. Nothing has been agreed yet, and the UK has not formally left yet either. |
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| Tigger | Jan 16 2017, 11:59 PM Post #31 |
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Senior Member
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But you've just been crowing about the predictions they made in regard to the UK! Oh that post stands as well.
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 17 2017, 12:03 AM Post #32 |
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You should spend a few minute reading my post on issue. Try the tread on IMF. Appendage: My comment as posted:
Edited by Phoenix One UK, Jan 17 2017, 12:05 AM.
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| Tigger | Jan 17 2017, 12:10 AM Post #33 |
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Ok, next time you bring the IMF up I'll remind you of this. Won't be long will it!
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 17 2017, 12:14 AM Post #34 |
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Ditto. I may quote them when they make headlines, especially when people like you try to use it to portray one perspective based purely on their being experts, as was done a great deal during the EU referendum Campaign. How often did Cameron and remain campaign push what experts said on population? Experts are used in politics to sway people to vote one way or another, as are polls. Just because they say anything does not translate to what they say as being accurate or not misleading. I know it, as do you. Edited by Phoenix One UK, Jan 17 2017, 12:15 AM.
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| Tigger | Jan 17 2017, 12:24 AM Post #35 |
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Senior Member
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This is the short version of how the British economy works, bollocks to productivity and capital investment that's so 19th century, instead inflate asset bubbles open the credit taps and ride the crest of the wave until reality bites, repeat after a period of clearing up. My fear is we'll be found out this time. |
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| Rich | Jan 17 2017, 12:40 AM Post #36 |
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Well, I can only speak for myself,but being the cynical bastard that I am, I needed no nudges from either side to make up my own mind, my eyes and ears led me to my own decision as to where to put my cross on the ballot paper, and, without any hesitation.....the status quo was no longer an option for me and the intransigence of the Brussels bubble and the humiliation of our own PM after his faux begging bowl trip around the member states was enough for me. I certainly have no regrets and IMO, the next generation will thank us....not so much for leaving the EU but for forcing the EU to rethink it's dogmatic ideology and to begin listening to the concerns of member states. |
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| Affa | Jan 17 2017, 01:02 PM Post #37 |
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There have been a number of think tanks making the same, similar, forecasts. But that was when the UK was part of the EU. Everything is about to change, and so will those predictions. One I recall was by CEBR, Centre for Economics and Business Research in 2015. |
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| Pro Veritas | Jan 17 2017, 01:11 PM Post #38 |
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Upstanding Member
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Given what he's managed to do so far would you bat serious money against it? Heck, just a tweet saw General Motors shift massive investment from Mexico to the US. All The Best |
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| Phoenix One UK | Jan 17 2017, 09:26 PM Post #39 |
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Regular Member
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I am with you Rich, and I believe it safe to say that we are very far from being alone.
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| The Buccaneer | Jan 19 2017, 09:46 PM Post #40 |
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If that were true, they would have trading agreements with the US and Canada already, along with many other world economies, but they don't, and it takes them far more than 20 years in some instances to do so because of their protectionism, and the need to get all the member countries to agree them. Is that really a sensible practical way to do business ? Quite, which is why we voted to leave, and arguably, some others will as well, when they wise up. |
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2:16 PM Jul 11