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The Euro, Could It Fail?; merged with Merkel says there is a problem with the value of the euro
Topic Started: Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM (1,360 Views)
Opinionater
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I think it's under pressure and there is a risk of it going into free fall.

Why you may ask, well let's take a look at the problems it is facing.

Greece, that in itself is a big risk, more bail out loans, no hair cut its just not going to work.
The only way out, well two ways, get them out of the Euro or give them a major haircut. They are not going to do any of the above.

BREXIT, whilst we are not In the Euro Zone leaving the EU will impact on the stability of the Euro as fears of others leaving add to the problem.

What do you think?

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Tigger
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It could fail*, I could also win the Grand Natioinal or get a birthday card from Donald Trump.

*Christmas 2014 2015 2016 2017?
Edited by Tigger, Feb 13 2017, 09:49 PM.
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Steve K
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Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread
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Tigger
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Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread
Yeah but it's not fair the Euro is set far to low so the Hun can flog quality goods to Greeks on pushbikes, whilst the Pound is......hold on a sec.....
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johnofgwent
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Yes

next question ....
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Steve K
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johnofgwent
Feb 14 2017, 12:20 AM
Yes

next question ....
Just how much of his own money is Opinionater going to back his opinion with by shorting the Euro?


Call Mr Cynical but I'm betting it's less than half a sixpence

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Rich
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Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread
The remainers warned of such before the referendum, Mr Carney has had a change of mind since then.....I still expect a rocky road ahead in a couple of years but nothing that cannot be coped with.

We have been in worse situations, peoples are far too cosseted these days with "nanny" tending to pick up the pieces and wipe up the spilt milk.
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Opinionater
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Tigger
Feb 13 2017, 11:17 PM
Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread
Yeah but it's not fair the Euro is set far to low so the Hun can flog quality goods to Greeks on pushbikes, whilst the Pound is......hold on a sec.....
If you look at the value of the Euro over the last month it has lost around 4 % against the £ the American $ and the Australian $

I agree that to a point that can work for the EU and the Euro but if it continues to drop the problems start to kick in. What was said about the UK starting a race to the bottom, looks to me more like the EU is now leading the way.

The forces against the Euro are mounting, very difficult times ahead I would say.

Would I bet on it falling significantly more, yes.
On it failing, let's see how it stands up to the run up to the French election. I think how it is standing then will be key to its future, if it has one. That also give some time to see how other key issues will line up.

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C-too
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Rich
Feb 14 2017, 01:21 AM
Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?
What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread
The remainers warned of such before the referendum, Mr Carney has had a change of mind since then.....I still expect a rocky road ahead in a couple of years but nothing that cannot be coped with.

We have been in worse situations, peoples are far too cosseted these days with "nanny" tending to pick up the pieces and wipe up the spilt milk.
The pound is unlikely to fail, but continued uncertainty and devaluations look highly likely. A chilly economic wind blowing for the next few decades looks to be on the cards, after that it's anyone's guess as to what will happen.

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C-too
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Euro to pound back around 2004 was 0.7.

Euro/pound today 0.85.
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Steve K
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Feb 14 2017, 08:32 AM
If you look at the value of the Euro over the last month it has lost around 4 % against the £ the American $ and the Australian $
Go to Specsavers or a better news source

A month ago a US$ got you €0.94 today it gets you €0.942 http://x-rates.com/graph/?from=USD&to=EUR&amount=1

The pound has recovered ~4% against both (because May finally produced some sort of plan) but the Euro has matched the $
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johnofgwent
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Steve K
Feb 14 2017, 12:35 AM
johnofgwent
Feb 14 2017, 12:20 AM
Yes

next question ....
Just how much of his own money is Opinionater going to back his opinion with by shorting the Euro?


Call Mr Cynical but I'm betting it's less than half a sixpence

Well that wasn't really the question was it Steve

Or did I miss something.

Yes the euro was worth about 67p in 2002 when the euro funny money started, and what is it now 84 - 86p

Yes the €35000 a year jobs I get asked if I fancy doing from home every week or so look rosier than they did a year ago.

But I have worked with people who got mortgages in euros and regretted it.

Currency speculation is for the George Soros bustards who do it with other peoples money

But do I see a likelihood all will fall down ? Yes, id go as high as 1 in 3 right now...
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Steve K
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johnofgwent
Feb 14 2017, 03:16 PM
Steve K
Feb 14 2017, 12:35 AM
johnofgwent
Feb 14 2017, 12:20 AM
Yes

next question ....
Just how much of his own money is Opinionater going to back his opinion with by shorting the Euro?


Call Mr Cynical but I'm betting it's less than half a sixpence

Well that wasn't really the question was it Steve

Or did I miss something.

Yes the euro was worth about 67p in 2002 when the euro funny money started, and what is it now 84 - 86p

Yes the €35000 a year jobs I get asked if I fancy doing from home every week or so look rosier than they did a year ago.

But I have worked with people who got mortgages in euros and regretted it.

Currency speculation is for the George Soros bustards who do it with other peoples money

But do I see a likelihood all will fall down ? Yes, id go as high as 1 in 3 right now...
And are you putting your money where your mouth is by going short on the Euro? I bet you aren't and haven't which suggests we should take your and Opinionater's predictions on this with a pinch of salt big enough to keep the country's roads free of ice all winter.

PS the smart money looked at such gloomy predictions said "nah"and sold £ to buy € today. € was up .25%
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Tigger
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Rich
Feb 14 2017, 01:21 AM
]The remainers warned of such before the referendum, Mr Carney has had a change of mind since then.....I still expect a rocky road ahead in a couple of years but nothing that cannot be coped with.

We have been in worse situations, peoples are far too cosseted these days with "nanny" tending to pick up the pieces and wipe up the spilt milk.
:'(

I suspect you are actually looking forward to some hardship.
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Rich
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Steve K
Feb 14 2017, 08:28 PM
johnofgwent
Feb 14 2017, 03:16 PM
Steve K
Feb 14 2017, 12:35 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Well that wasn't really the question was it Steve

Or did I miss something.

Yes the euro was worth about 67p in 2002 when the euro funny money started, and what is it now 84 - 86p

Yes the €35000 a year jobs I get asked if I fancy doing from home every week or so look rosier than they did a year ago.

But I have worked with people who got mortgages in euros and regretted it.

Currency speculation is for the George Soros bustards who do it with other peoples money

But do I see a likelihood all will fall down ? Yes, id go as high as 1 in 3 right now...
And are you putting your money where your mouth is by going short on the Euro? I bet you aren't and haven't which suggests we should take your and Opinionater's predictions on this with a pinch of salt big enough to keep the country's roads free of ice all winter.

PS the smart money looked at such gloomy predictions said "nah"and sold £ to buy € today. € was up .25%
As we all know, I am a numpty where economics (globally) are concerned, but one wonders, at least I do, why the likes of Soros has not tried to push things one way or the other?

Or does/did he just have a love affair with pound sterling?
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Tigger
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Feb 14 2017, 08:32 AM


I agree that to a point that can work for the EU and the Euro but if it continues to drop the problems start to kick in. What was said about the UK starting a race to the bottom, looks to me more like the EU is now leading the way.


Well of course the Euro is only second to the Dollar as the reserve currency of choice so perhaps some wiser heads than yours and the rabble in Fleet Street know something you don't? :rubchin:

As for the Pound only 4% of the global reserve is now in the £, the Euro is at 20.3% as of last year. Given our currecies current rate of decline the Japanese Yen and even the Canadian Dollar will overtake us before long, and the £ it's quietly being dumped to even lower percentage levels. Many in the markets also consider a currency the stock price of the nation issuing it.

I wonder why that might be? :rubchin:
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Tigger
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Rich
Feb 14 2017, 11:02 PM
why the likes of Soros has not tried to push things one way or the other?

Or does/did he just have a love affair with pound sterling?
Soros is now a busted flush in his abilities to manipulate currencies on such a grand scale, and his finest hour was twenty five years ago.
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johnofgwent
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Steve K
Feb 14 2017, 08:28 PM
johnofgwent
Feb 14 2017, 03:16 PM
Steve K
Feb 14 2017, 12:35 AM

Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
Well that wasn't really the question was it Steve

Or did I miss something.

Yes the euro was worth about 67p in 2002 when the euro funny money started, and what is it now 84 - 86p

Yes the €35000 a year jobs I get asked if I fancy doing from home every week or so look rosier than they did a year ago.

But I have worked with people who got mortgages in euros and regretted it.

Currency speculation is for the George Soros bustards who do it with other peoples money

But do I see a likelihood all will fall down ? Yes, id go as high as 1 in 3 right now...
And are you putting your money where your mouth is by going short on the Euro? I bet you aren't and haven't which suggests we should take your and Opinionater's predictions on this with a pinch of salt big enough to keep the country's roads free of ice all winter.

PS the smart money looked at such gloomy predictions said "nah"and sold £ to buy € today. € was up .25%
I have none to spare to do that with.

And I think the smart money bought gold a long time ago

Next question???
Edited by johnofgwent, Feb 16 2017, 12:51 AM.
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The Buccaneer
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Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread

I really don't think you understand this situation. You are so divorced from it that you are in danger of being wiped out when the shit hits the fan.
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Opinionater
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The Buccaneer
Feb 16 2017, 01:37 AM
Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread

I really don't think you understand this situation. You are so divorced from it that you are in danger of being wiped out when the shit hits the fan.
I agree, The Eu and the Euro are at a high point of risk, you could say on the edge.
Not saying it is doomed but the odds of it surviving as is in my opinion is not good.

The cracks are most likely to start with the currency so that in my opinion is the thing to watch.
Monitoring it against the £ or $ may not be the best way to keep an eye on it, unless movements are major, as both are subject to influences namely Brexit and Trump.

Things to look out for that could weaken the euro. All coming soon, I think

Brexit talks start
interest rates rise in UK
Duch election results
French elections results
Greek Debt still not resolved

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Steve K
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The Buccaneer
Feb 16 2017, 01:37 AM
Steve K
Feb 13 2017, 11:13 PM
Opinionater
Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM
. . . What do you think?

What do I think? What Tigger said.

Here's the funny thing, every now and again we get these "it's doomed" threads and each time the Euro is doing better against the £ than it was a year before.

But no one ever starts a "The £, is it doomed" thread

I really don't think you understand this situation. You are so divorced from it that you are in danger of being wiped out when the shit hits the fan.
You mean I keep using facts while rejecting your myths and you find that awkward.

Go on put your reputation where your mouth is and give us your prediction of WHEN the € will fail
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Oddball
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Steve - I think that the Euro's 'Happy Times' are pretty much over, and that what could well happen is that a divorce from the Eurozone will occur in phases - starting with the likes of Greece and Italy, and some of the former eastern block countries. I do feel it will eventually either become a rump player, or entirely fail, and that sometime in the middle distance, Germany will return to the Mark.
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Steve K
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Oddball
Feb 16 2017, 11:12 AM
Steve - I think that the Euro's 'Happy Times' are pretty much over, and that what could well happen is that a divorce from the Eurozone will occur in phases - starting with the likes of Greece and Italy, and some of the former eastern block countries. I do feel it will eventually either become a rump player, or entirely fail, and that sometime in the middle distance, Germany will return to the Mark.
Well that's plausible but I have to say if you want to name a currency whose 'happy times' are over it would very much be our own £ albeit that it is up slightly today but still down 16% since a certain day last June
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Opinionater
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The French election is the big one, possible trigger to problems ahead.

Good to see you are watching the £ Euro Steve, keep watching, interesting times ahead. The £ is cheap in my opinion.
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papasmurf
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Feb 16 2017, 01:32 PM


Good to see you are watching the £ Euro Steve, keep watching, interesting times ahead. The £ is cheap in my opinion.
He isn't the only one watching the Euro, I need to buy £2000 worth over the next few weeks.
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Oddball
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Steve K
Feb 16 2017, 11:27 AM
Oddball
Feb 16 2017, 11:12 AM
Steve - I think that the Euro's 'Happy Times' are pretty much over, and that what could well happen is that a divorce from the Eurozone will occur in phases - starting with the likes of Greece and Italy, and some of the former eastern block countries. I do feel it will eventually either become a rump player, or entirely fail, and that sometime in the middle distance, Germany will return to the Mark.
Well that's plausible but I have to say if you want to name a currency whose 'happy times' are over it would very much be our own £ albeit that it is up slightly today but still down 16% since a certain day last June
The £UK has been on a gentle roller coaster of a downward trend for decades - yes it has its ups, but the overall trend is downwards. We no longer have income from an Empire to buffer things.

Post WWI there were still 4 $US to 1 £UK. In the 1950s there were around 8 DMs to the £ - also 16 $HK.
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Tigger
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Feb 16 2017, 01:32 PM
The French election is the big one, possible trigger to problems ahead.

Good to see you are watching the £ Euro Steve, keep watching, interesting times ahead. The £ is cheap in my opinion.
This is what you do not understand, the Euro like the Dollar is not just a local currency it is a global store of wealth and as such can count on support from nations holding the Euro, and they are not all in Europe. Oh and the Pound is almost certainly now on an accelerated downward slope because of Brexit in regards to it's reserve status.

Can you comprehend the implications of all of that? :)
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Opinionater
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papasmurf
Feb 16 2017, 01:34 PM
Opinionater
Feb 16 2017, 01:32 PM


Good to see you are watching the £ Euro Steve, keep watching, interesting times ahead. The £ is cheap in my opinion.
He isn't the only one watching the Euro, I need to buy £2000 worth over the next few weeks.
Off anywhere nice?
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Opinionater
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Tigger
Feb 16 2017, 10:41 PM
Opinionater
Feb 16 2017, 01:32 PM
The French election is the big one, possible trigger to problems ahead.

Good to see you are watching the £ Euro Steve, keep watching, interesting times ahead. The £ is cheap in my opinion.
This is what you do not understand, the Euro like the Dollar is not just a local currency it is a global store of wealth and as such can count on support from nations holding the Euro, and they are not all in Europe. Oh and the Pound is almost certainly now on an accelerated downward slope because of Brexit in regards to it's reserve status.

Can you comprehend the implications of all of that? :)
Seems to me the Euro is not so much a store of wealth but a currency to keep some countries rich whilst pushing others into debt. If France elects Le Pen we will see just how much of a global currency it is.

The Euro has its members with major problems like Greece but France is seen as a solid member like Germany, holding the Zone together. Rock the boat in France and confidence will be to say the least in question.

The value of a currency comes from the confidence the markets have in it, can you comprehend that?

On your evaluation you will be buying Euros by the bucket full then?
Edited by Opinionater, Feb 17 2017, 08:58 AM.
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Cymru
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The euro has already fallen, it's just waiting for the eurocrats to catch up, admit it and put it out of its misery.
Edited by Cymru, Feb 17 2017, 10:17 AM.
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Steve K
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Cymru
Feb 17 2017, 10:14 AM
The euro has already fallen, it's just waiting for the eurocrats to catch up, admit it and put it out of its misery.
That'd be the Euro that's up on the £ on the day, the week and the last year?

Looks more like it's the Brexiters who need to catch up
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Tigger
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Opinionater
Feb 17 2017, 08:56 AM


The value of a currency comes from the confidence the markets have in it, can you comprehend that?



 ::)

My post went completely over your head didn't it? Can you remind us which currency has lost about 20% of it's value in the last several months?
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The Buccaneer
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Steve K
Feb 16 2017, 11:03 AM
You mean I keep using facts while rejecting your myths and you find that awkward.

Go on put your reputation where your mouth is and give us your prediction of WHEN the € will fail

I think the € will fail when either Italy and/or France decide they cannot live with it any longer. The situation with Greece is in the forefront again, but my bet is the EU will keep kicking that can down the road whilst other EU member state elections are upcoming.
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The Buccaneer
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Tigger
Feb 17 2017, 12:37 PM
Opinionater
Feb 17 2017, 08:56 AM


The value of a currency comes from the confidence the markets have in it, can you comprehend that?



 ::)

My post went completely over your head didn't it? Can you remind us which currency has lost about 20% of it's value in the last several months?

Why not explain the similar drop of the Euro in 2015/6 ?

Currencies fluctuate according to many factors from panic in money markets to the way economies fluctuate.

Obviously, the uncertainty about Brexit isn't helping the £, but that should improve once resolved. At any rate, it is helping our exporters currently and our unemployment figures are still much better than the rest of the EU.

Frankly, I'd stop trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.
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Cymru
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Steve K
Feb 17 2017, 12:32 PM
Cymru
Feb 17 2017, 10:14 AM
The euro has already fallen, it's just waiting for the eurocrats to catch up, admit it and put it out of its misery.
That'd be the Euro that's up on the £ on the day, the week and the last year?

Looks more like it's the Brexiters who need to catch up
Keep watching those markets whilst Rome burns.
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Tigger
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The Buccaneer
Feb 17 2017, 05:52 PM


Obviously, the uncertainty about Brexit isn't helping the £, but that should improve once resolved. At any rate, it is helping our exporters currently and our unemployment figures are still much better than the rest of the EU.

Resolved? :'(

How's this for starters.

Like having tariffs whacked on us by our biggest trading partner? Watching an exodus of jobs as our biggest investors the EU pull the chain on business here in the UK? We'll be lucky to have a currency that's not rated junk by the time all this filters through.
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Opinionater
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Tigger
Feb 17 2017, 12:37 PM
Opinionater
Feb 17 2017, 08:56 AM


The value of a currency comes from the confidence the markets have in it, can you comprehend that?



 ::)

My post went completely over your head didn't it? Can you remind us which currency has lost about 20% of it's value in the last several months?
The. £ lost value because It was not clear how the Brexit vote would be implemented and a risk it could be blocked. Now that's sorted the path to Brexit is set and stability and confidence should return.

Now look at the Euro, High debt in Greece, Itayl. Major political challage said to the E.U by the Frence and Duch people and populist movements across the EU. The U.S and Russia pressing down on the E.U. A total lack of democracy in leadership and a vision that would produce a Federal Europe that the people clearly don't want. I it were a company would you invest it?

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Cymru
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http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/18/germanys-angela-merkel-on-euro-valuation.html

Quote:
 
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was a "problem" with the value of the euro because the European Central Bank was tailoring its policies to weaker members of the eurozone and not strictly to Germany.


Straight from the horse's mouth.
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Steve K
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Cymru
Feb 18 2017, 12:20 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/18/germanys-angela-merkel-on-euro-valuation.html

Quote:
 
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was a "problem" with the value of the euro because the European Central Bank was tailoring its policies to weaker members of the eurozone and not strictly to Germany.


Straight from the horse's mouth.

She seems to be saying the € is actually even stronger than its already raised value against the £

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Opinionater
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You've got to ask why she is expressing views on currency policy, can she see something on the horizon or am I reading something into it that isn't there?

Looks like this could have been triggered by America considering the Euro is undervalued and as such is damaging trade.

Currency war?
Edited by Opinionater, Feb 18 2017, 01:58 PM.
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