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| The Euro, Could It Fail?; merged with Merkel says there is a problem with the value of the euro | |
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| Topic Started: Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM (1,363 Views) | |
| Opinionater | Feb 13 2017, 09:31 PM Post #1 |
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Senior Member
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I think it's under pressure and there is a risk of it going into free fall. Why you may ask, well let's take a look at the problems it is facing. Greece, that in itself is a big risk, more bail out loans, no hair cut its just not going to work. The only way out, well two ways, get them out of the Euro or give them a major haircut. They are not going to do any of the above. BREXIT, whilst we are not In the Euro Zone leaving the EU will impact on the stability of the Euro as fears of others leaving add to the problem. What do you think? |
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| Steve K | Feb 18 2017, 01:39 PM Post #41 |
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Once and future cynic
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She's pointing out the German's are having to pay higher prices because of the idiocies south of her borders |
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| Rich | Feb 18 2017, 01:48 PM Post #42 |
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Do those south of the borders have any option to act other than as they are, how many elections has Italy had lately, how many for Spain, Greece Portugal?, it would seem that whoever the electorates vote in they are still left with the same problems and no recourse to solutions because of financial restrictions and as Greece has vividly shown, you cannot "borrow" your way out of debt alley. Sooner or later something will have to give and I think it is best done in a peaceful manner otherwise I can see civil unrest and conflict on the horizon in Europe. One thing should be blatantly obvious to all onlookers of the Euro, one size does NOT fit all, perhaps those in Brussels are not looking outwards but inwards at their own personal bank balances? |
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| Steve K | Feb 18 2017, 01:52 PM Post #43 |
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Once and future cynic
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They have every choice. They could try living within their means for a change |
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| Rich | Feb 18 2017, 02:38 PM Post #44 |
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But why would they want to do that when they see the ruling elite in Brussels living the high life with the promise of gold plated pensions, early retirement and yet you expect those that pay them to act this way should just accept that and tighten their belts whilst unemployment rises (especially for younger peoples) and no prospect of a future is on the horizon? If those in Brussels cannot see what is coming then they deserve whatever they get. They have brought it upon themselves with their inflexibility and dogmatic ideology. I said way back on the old forum that this Euro dream would end in tears and produce the opposite of what it was supposedly set up to achieve.....peace in Europe. Germany will never give up it's desire to dominate Europe and as it could not do it by conflict it has now turned to doing it by financial means, but that cannot and will not last forever.....in my opinion, a "bastille" type day is waiting in the wings. Edited by Rich, Feb 18 2017, 02:39 PM.
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| Rich | Feb 18 2017, 02:51 PM Post #45 |
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Let's put it this way, I do not think that Donald has much respect for Merkels values, I can see perfidious currency machinations on the horizon. |
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| marybrown | Feb 18 2017, 05:25 PM Post #46 |
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She's got that wrong..She should have said Germany has a problem with the million ''asylum seekers'' that she invited into Europe?? |
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| Pro Veritas | Feb 18 2017, 05:53 PM Post #47 |
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Upstanding Member
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Well, coupled with this: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/14/germany-has-got-its-gold-back--they-must-know-something-we-dont.html I'd say Germany is preparing to re-issue the D-Mark as they exit the EU - most probably as the EU collapses under too many takers and not enough givers. All The Best |
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| Steve K | Feb 18 2017, 07:05 PM Post #48 |
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Once and future cynic
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Surely that would only be true if they were buying Gold. This is more like they don't trust the USA (and to be clear this started under Obama) to correctly account for their holding. most likely an exercise in National pride But go on you make a prediction of when the EU will fall |
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| Rich | Feb 18 2017, 07:15 PM Post #49 |
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If I may, are you willing to say that the EU will not only survive but will thrive and flourish? |
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| Tigger | Feb 18 2017, 08:04 PM Post #50 |
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Look away now and ignore anything factual that might burst into that echo chamber and ruin the sound scape. Before the Euro existed most of the Northern EU countries had strong currencies and economies, whilst many Southern EU nations had Micky Mouse currencies and weak economies. You see the two things are interconnected, you cannot cure economic ills by continually devaluing your currency or manipulating prices because this is only a sticking plaster and not a cure for structural problems which eventually need to be addressed, you will be able to see this in all it's gory detail as we leave the EU and our structural weaknesses are put to the test.
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| Tigger | Feb 18 2017, 08:07 PM Post #51 |
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23rd of August 2018 at 3.10pm?
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| Tigger | Feb 18 2017, 08:11 PM Post #52 |
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They will be able to reform the banking sector now without us vetoing every move. What better place to start eh? Lucky them!
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| Steve K | Feb 18 2017, 08:19 PM Post #53 |
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Once and future cynic
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No, not saying that. It may even shed a country or two but it won't fail anytime soon. It's even possible that we would petition to rejoin and therefore have to adopt the € first. |
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| Tigger | Feb 18 2017, 08:42 PM Post #54 |
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But you lot have been telling us it was tailored to suit Germany and their vast money spinning export trade! Make your minds up ffs!
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| Rich | Feb 18 2017, 08:54 PM Post #55 |
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That might not be a bad thing, but if that were to happen it would have to be under strict conditions set by OUR government, by then, Brussels might have learned to become flexible and admit that one size does not fit all. |
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| Mr Pat | Feb 18 2017, 11:40 PM Post #56 |
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Only in your dreams. Can you give us an exact time and date that we'd petition to rejoin and adopt the Euro?
Edited by Mr Pat, Feb 18 2017, 11:42 PM.
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 12:01 AM Post #57 |
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Once and future cynic
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No because those that can read will know I didn't say it was likely did I. Do you need the phrase "it's even possible" explained to you? Unlike the " the odds of it surviving as is in my opinion is not good", "The euro has already fallen, it's just waiting for the eurocrats to catch up, admit it and put it out of its misery." and "Germany is preparing to re-issue the D-Mark as they exit the EU - most probably as the EU collapses" posts I was challenging Tell you what, I predict we'll get another cheap shot from you long before the € fails |
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| The Buccaneer | Feb 19 2017, 12:09 AM Post #58 |
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No, she's pointing out that the ECB is diluting the value of the € by its massive QE programme.
source :http://www.whygofederal.eu/eurozone-quantitative-easing-helicopter-money/ Merkel is deeply worried that hyperinflation will result from this as it did in the days of the Weimar republic, it is a deeply embedded German fear. |
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 12:22 AM Post #59 |
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Once and future cynic
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Yes but surely that's convergent. The € QE albeit far less in % terms than ours has caused those higher prices I mentioned in Germany that she needs to blame elsewhere with an election looming . Diluting a currency only works if the working population don't demand higher wages to match |
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| Mr Pat | Feb 19 2017, 08:52 AM Post #60 |
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When will Britain possibly adopt the Euro? It's no different from people saying the EU "could" fail, yet you demand specifics. Date and time for this "possibility" then. Tell you what, I predict we'll get more pedantry and arrogance from you before the Euro or EU fails. Edited by Mr Pat, Feb 19 2017, 09:04 AM.
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 09:12 AM Post #61 |
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Once and future cynic
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So my prediction was right then. As I said go read what I actually posted about possibilities (unlikely) and see what others posted about probabilities . What kind of fool expects a prediction for something I said to be unlikely to happen? |
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| Mr Pat | Feb 19 2017, 09:31 AM Post #62 |
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The exact kind of fool who goes round demanding specific dates from others who consider either the EU or Euro possibly failing.
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 09:34 AM Post #63 |
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Once and future cynic
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Except if you had actually been able to understand the quotes you will see that they had talked of PROBABILITIES. Of course the alternate explanation is you're just trolling again. So what is it Mr Pat? |
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| Mr Pat | Feb 19 2017, 09:41 AM Post #64 |
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Trolling? Is that what you do when you demand specific times, dates etc. of a possible EU/Euro collapse. Pot, Kettle, Black. |
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 11:43 AM Post #65 |
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Once and future cynic
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"Possible" ? Go on lets see if anyone else agrees with you that these statements as talking of mere possibility and not probability " the odds of it surviving as is in my opinion is not good", "The euro has already fallen, it's just waiting for the eurocrats to catch up, admit it and put it out of its misery." and "Germany is preparing to re-issue the D-Mark as they exit the EU - most probably as the EU collapses" |
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| Tigger | Feb 19 2017, 01:09 PM Post #66 |
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Did you miss the later bit where she said she had no control over the value of the Euro as ultimately the markets decide? You should put that horse out to pasture........... |
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| The Buccaneer | Feb 19 2017, 01:13 PM Post #67 |
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Yes, and in that respect the Germans have held their wage growth right down over the last 8 years or so, and it's only recently that there have been threats of strikes unless they are raised NOW. This may have prompted her veiled comments about returning to the Dm. Edited by The Buccaneer, Feb 19 2017, 01:15 PM.
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| The Buccaneer | Feb 19 2017, 01:17 PM Post #68 |
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If Germany dumped the €, it would immediately become as valuable as the Argentinian peso....... |
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 01:21 PM Post #69 |
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Once and future cynic
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Which suggests this and that thread should be merged. Views? |
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| Tigger | Feb 19 2017, 01:21 PM Post #70 |
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That looks like a bit of a grumble to me, But why would Germany want to do that? Oh that's right, it belives in a united Europe as tariff free trade across borders is a good thing. |
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| The Buccaneer | Feb 19 2017, 01:24 PM Post #71 |
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Agreed. |
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 01:25 PM Post #72 |
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Once and future cynic
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Germany also knows how to make the € work across divergent economies and it's quite prepared to lecture the less mature Eurozone nations on that. |
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 01:30 PM Post #73 |
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Once and future cynic
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I'll give it a little longer to see if anyone objects |
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| Pro Veritas | Feb 19 2017, 06:00 PM Post #74 |
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Upstanding Member
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When despite questionable legal shenanigans by the Troika it can no longer be sustained. The more "fiddling while Rome burns" that the Troika engage in to prop up the Euro the harder the fire-sale will have to be when they lose control - and lose control they will. Because a currency union can NOT work unless there is first an economic and fiscal union - and that would require a USofE. All The Best |
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| Steve K | Feb 19 2017, 06:07 PM Post #75 |
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Once and future cynic
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Of course it can work without a USoE. That's the increasingly isolated federalist's preferred option but the € and ECB have the mechanisms to keep it going The likes of Greek using others money to stave off the inevitable have put a strain on it but do you really think they'll dare try such a folly again? |
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| Tigger | Feb 19 2017, 06:46 PM Post #76 |
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Really? The dollar and euro are used globally and in cash form to buy and sell, you also like most of your ilk completely overlook the sheer convinience of several nations trading in the same currency, price transparency is simplicity itself and this leads to healthy competition, not to mention the lack of fees involed in exchanging currencies. If you actually believe what you are preaching why not advocate a different currency and inerest rate regime for say London and the North East of England? The wealth and productivity gap is easily comparable to many parts of Europe. |
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| The Buccaneer | Feb 20 2017, 12:27 AM Post #77 |
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WRONG ! NO currency without a 'lender of last resort' has ever survived, and the only way the € can get this is as PV points out (as have I many times) without the federalisation of the EZ. It's a FACT whether you like it or not, and Euro users need to take far greater note of it. WHO is going to underwrite it until this happens ? Edited by The Buccaneer, Feb 20 2017, 12:28 AM.
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| Steve K | Feb 20 2017, 12:31 AM Post #78 |
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Once and future cynic
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You appear to be confused A lender of last resort is not the same as the Federal USoE construct we were discussing is it? Anyway if you care to look it up you'll see that the lender of last resort for the Euro is the Eurozone nations via the ECB |
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| Rich | Feb 20 2017, 12:39 AM Post #79 |
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I understand that some of the member states are in dire straits so if the ECB cannot rely on all member states to keep it's reserves at a comfortable balance then for how much longer do you think the successful members will subsidise them for? I also understand that German taxpayers are unhappy with the status quo and maybe France too. I have to say it does not look good. But then, wtf do I know? |
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| The Buccaneer | Feb 20 2017, 12:45 PM Post #80 |
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Not confused at all because, A lender of last resort is the banking system of a sovereign nation or federation, but just now the EZ is not one, having no common tax, budgetary or legal framework, which would only be possible if the EZ members agreed to engage in such a way. Currently, it looks as if at least 3 or 4 or more members of the EZ could either leave or be forced out in the near future, these being Greece, Italy, Portugal and France with the possibility that Ireland too may decide that remaining in the EZ (and possibly the EU) will no longer be in their interest. Either way, it's gonna be a bumpy ride in the next few years whilst we're making our way out of this crumbling mess. |
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