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| Team Preview: Florida Marlins | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Sun Feb 10, 2008 1:31 am (136 Views) | |
| sportslover | Sun Feb 10, 2008 1:31 am Post #1 |
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Florida Marlins 2007 Record: 71-91 2007 Pythag Record: 72-90 Key Additions: Cameron Maybin Andrew Miller Key Losses: Miguel Cabrera Dontrelle Willis Impact players heading into ‘08: Hanley Ramirez-.332/.386/.562/145 OPS+ 2008 ZIPS Projections: .306/.369/.516 Dan Uggla-.245/.326/.479/108 OPS+ 2008 ZIPS Projections: .260/.332/.462 Jeremy Hermida- .296/.369/.501/125 OPS+ 2008 ZIPS Projections: .271/.351/.447 Josh Willingham-.265/.364/.463/115 OPS+ 2008 ZIPS Projections: .260/.360/.469 Offense: The 2007 Florida Marlins scored 790 runs and were 6th in the NL in R/G(4.88). All of that was with stud Miguel Cabrera, who was worth about 70 runs offensively to them. The Marlins will heavily rely on Hanley Ramirez and his versatility in order to stay in competition for 4th place in the East. Though we’re all aware of the year Hanley had last year, he still has much room to improve offensively. For one, Hanley experienced a drop-off in both BB% and Pitchers Per Plate Appearance from 2006 to 2007. In ‘06, his P/PA was 4.00, and in 3.62. That affected his BB%, as in 2006, Hanley had a 8.1 BB%, but in 2007 his BB% was 7.5. That’s not that big of a decrease, but a decrease nonetheless, and the opposite of what you expect in a young, emerging star(See; Jose Reyes, whose BB% has been climbing every year). My guess is that Hanley was asked to swing more, and not wait for pitches as much(which was what a factor in his K's in '06). That does make sense in that Hanley’s K% went down from ‘06 to ‘07, from 20% to 14%. I do see Hanley continuation to develop as a hitter, and I do expect his BB% to climb, with his K% staying in the 14% neighborhood. 3B is pretty much open, though I expect Jose Castillo to start the year there(with McPherson “competing” for the job. Eww.). I’m a firm believer that Hanley's future is at 3B, and if Castillo provides below replacement-level offense and defense there, why not go ahead and make the move? Yes, his fantasy below would take a hit, but his defensive value would improve. The Marlins have a nice, young OF with some potential. The projected OF seems to be Willingham-Ross-Hermida, with the possibility of top prospect Cameron Maybin sneaking in there, if he can cut down his K‘s. Both Hermida and Willingham seem to have the corner OF positions locked up, but Ross’ spot in Center will depend on his performance. He did very well last year(.335/.411/.653) in the majors, but that was only in 173 Abs. Ross’ 2008 ZIPS projections look like this: .255./330/ .457. Hermida’s ZIPS projections seem pretty spot on to me. Yes, he does have one more year under his belt, but last year he had a really high BABIP(Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .351. Hermida’s BABIP has always hung around .300, which also happens to be the major league average, so a dropoff on his BABIP is expected, and that in turn will cause his statistics to experience a decline. As for Willingham, he has had some injury problems. His back has been a problem and he was out in September with a herniated disk. I guess Luis Gonzalez will serve as a backup and insurance. I guess. Eww. But, if he can stay healthy throughout the season, he’s a very nice player. I do see Cameron Maybin sneaking into CF sometime during the year, though from I’ve read, he’s expected to start in AAA. There is no reason to rush him, so the smart thing would be to let him grow in the minors until he shows he’s ready. After all, he’s only 20. Even if he gets to the majors, I don’t see him making much of an impact. Wait until ‘09 though, this dude is the real deal. Especially if he can cut down on those strikeouts. Starting Rotation: The 2007 Marlins didn’t have a pitcher with an ERA under 4.60. Some of that failure can be attributed to the fact that they were a terrible fielding team in 2007. The Plus/Minus system, which is a groundbreaking defensive analytical system developed by John Dewan and Baseball Info Solutions(Google Plus/Minus Fielding for more info), has the Marlins at a -102. That’s the worst in the NL, and 2nd to last in the Majors after the Rays. So, I’ll attempt to separate fielding from true pitching in order to show how bad they really were. According to this blog, the Marlins were last in Fielding Independent Pitching, a statistic developed by Tango Tiger, which is what its name depicts: a pitching statistic independent of fielding. :mellow: Also, the Marlins didn’t have a Starting Pitcher with an above-average K/BB ratio last year. With or without that terrible defense, the Marlins pitching was shit last year. What does that have to do with this year? Well, they really haven’t done much to improve. They did receive Andrew Miller from Detroit, but he might not might not start the year in the majors . First, he needs to go work on his control(5.48 BB/9 last year in the majors). I don’t expect this year’s rotation to be any better than last year’s. Bullpen: Kevin Gregg will return as the closer. He’s a pretty nice closer who strikes out his fair share, though he has trouble with walks. He did post a pretty low BABIP compared to his career average(.272 and his career average is .310). That’s pretty alarming, and I expect his ERA to shoot up to about 3.90. In fact, the MARCELS the Monkey, Bill James, and CHONES predictions all say that his ERA will be somewhere around 3.95-4.10. 27-year old Matt Lindstrom and Lee Gardner should compete for the setup man role. Last year Lindstrom had a very nice year; 8.33 K/9, and a 2.82 BB/9. I do expect him to strikeout around the same number, but his BB/9 should experience a regression. In the minors, his average BB/9 was 3.85. As for Gardner, he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he doesn’t give up a lot of walks. If I were Florida, I would have Lindstrom as my #1 setup man. Lee Gardner had a 1.94 ERA, and Lindstrom’s ERA was much higher at 3.09, you say? Well, here’s an instance where a defense hurt one pitcher, but not the other. Lindstrom’s FIP, which I mentioned earlier, was actually LOWER than Gardner. Lindstrom FIP: 2.81 Gardner: 3.00 Lindstrom also had the better peripherals. He had a slightly higher K/BB. Now, while I don’t expect either one to be as good as last year, I do believe Lindstrom is the better pitcher. Taylor Tankersley seems to be the perfect LOOGY(Lefty One Out Guy). Look at his platoon splits: Vs. RHP: .301/.421/.409 Vs. LHP: .179 .286 .295 He’ll also be expected to setup in innings where there are a majority of Left-handers coming up to bat, which would be very smart. If he’s correctly used in platoon situations, Tankersley will help that bullpen tremendously. Justin Miller, Renyel Pinto, Daniel Barone, Henry Owens, Ricky Nolasco, and Carlos Martinez will compete for the rest of the spots. Projection: In 2007, the Florida Marlins scored 790 runs and allowed 891 runs. During the off-season, they lost Miguel Cabrera, a guy who was worth about 70 runs with his bat, and are replacing him with a player who will be replacement-level-ess(whether it’s Castillo or McPherson). That’s a lot of runs they’ll be losing with the departure of Cabrera alone. Their rotation has done nothing to improve, and has probably taken a stepback. Meanwhile, their bullpen should experience some regression, though they will still be an okay pen. My projections(Educated guess considering additions, subtractions, development, regressions, etc.): RS: 732 RA: 912 Pythagorean Record(I actual plugged those numbers into the formula, so this is based on my projected RS/RA): Pyth: 63-99 Keep in mind that I’m not predicting the Marlins to go 63-99. There are other factors that affect a team’s record such as luck, injuries, etc. |
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| sportslover | Sun Feb 10, 2008 1:34 am Post #2 |
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Feel free to bash me, my logic, reasoning, etc. I tried to explain my reasoning for everything as best as I could, but if you want to know why I believe something, please ask. I also tried to keep it as simple as possible, and not get into things like EqA, wOBA, VORP, WARP, etc. |
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| dbacksfan | Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:09 am Post #3 |
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I am a Ignorant Nazi Ass
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I know Anibal got sent down to AAA last year but what has happened to him since? Is he expected to return to the rotation this year? |
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| sportslover | Sun Feb 10, 2008 12:50 pm Post #4 |
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http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...e2007&fext=.jsp
I didn't know he was still rehabing. |
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| baseballfan4ever | Sun Feb 10, 2008 5:00 pm Post #5 |
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Hero of Hawaii
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I don't understand the Pythagorean record. How do you get it? |
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| sportslover | Sun Feb 10, 2008 5:13 pm Post #6 |
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It's a formula created by Bill James which basically estimates how many games a team should have won based on its runs scored and runs allowed. It's called the Pythagorean record because the formula resembles the Pythagorean theory.... |
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| baseballfan4ever | Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:07 pm Post #7 |
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Hero of Hawaii
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Aha! :o I believe it is theorem though.
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| sportslover | Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:07 pm Post #8 |
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Yeah. |
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| Common Sense | Mon Feb 11, 2008 1:11 am Post #9 |
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USF's #1 Producer
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I can't wait to watch how this team and especially Cameron Maybin evolve over the season. And then when they win the series get rid of everybody lol |
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| CHILL | Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:10 pm Post #10 |
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The one thing I don't get is Ricky Nolasco competing for the Bullpen. When he was drafted and brought up through the minor leagues by the Cubs, he was always a Starter. As a Major League pitcher for the Marlins, he was a starter too. Are they moving him to the Bullpen? |
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2:29 PM Jul 11