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Team Preview: Baltimore Orioles
Topic Started: Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:51 pm (136 Views)
sportslover
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Baltimore Orioles

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2007 Record: 69-93
2007 Pythag Record: 71-91

Additions:
Adam Jones
George Sherrill
Tony Butler
Luke Scott
Troy Patton
Matt Albers

Losses:
Erik Bedard
Miguel Tejada


Impact players heading into ‘08:

Brian Roberts- .290/.377/.432/112 OPS+
2008 ZIPS- .287/.363/.437

Nick Markakis-.300/.362/.485/121 OPS+
2008 ZIPS- .294/.357/.486


Preview:
It seems to be that the Orioles front office have finally realized it’s time to rebuild. Over the past 3 months, they’ve acquired 3 of Seattle’s top 10 prospects(Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and Tony Butler), and 2 of Houston’s Top 10 prospects(Troy Patton and Matt Albers). Who knows if they‘re really “rebuilding” though, as Peter Angelos is still in chare, and I believe the Orioles went through something similar years ago? Meh.

There is a possibility that Roberts gets dealt between now and the trade deadline, but according Jon Heyman, Angelos is reluctant to deal him because he reminds him or himself or some Angelos bullshit. The thing to look forward to with this young team are Nick Markakis and Adam Jones in the same outfield.



Offense:

This offense will feature Markakis and Roberts -- and that’s about it.

I’ll start with the OF, which is projected to be Scott-Jones-Markakis.

Markakis’ OBP should continue to rise, and I ultimately see him being a .380 OBP guy. I also think he has some undiscovered power in there, and as he grows and further develops some of those doubles will turn into homeruns. Though, he has a really short and quick swing, which will limit his power numbers, and he won‘t ever be a big power guy. His ZIPS projections seem right, though we could see some power unravel this year. There really isn’t much else to say about Nick, except that I love him.

I expect Adam Jones to struggle this year. For one, he doesn’t have much plate discipline, and he strikes out a lot. He’ll never be a high-OBP guy, so expecting more than a .330 OBP is pretty crazy. Even at his peak, his OBP will not be elite. What he does have is power, and a lot of it. 20 HR isn’t that bad of a goal for him in ‘07.Hopefully he’ll focus on improving his plate discipline this year, because that’s his biggest problem right, and it’s what could ultimately prevent him from becoming an elite player.

Jones is sure to be an improvement over Corey Patterson, anyway you look at it.

Luke Scott should be fairly productive this year, and he should give them above-average LF production.

The IF for the Orioles will be below-average offensively. Millar should have another average year, and borderline average considering he plays 1st base, which is basically what he did last year. A decline caused by age isn’t expected from Millar. A player whose performance will continue to decline, and which has been going down hill since 2005, is Melvin Mora. Last year he provided the O’s with a below average year, and this year it won’t get any better. The worst part is that Mora is practically immovable because of his contract(3/$25 thru 2009). At SS the O’s have Fahey, Luis Hernandez, and even Freddy Bynum competing for the job. It won’t really matter, as all 3 of them will provide the O’s with replacement-level offensive performances.

Brian Roberts rebounded from a 2006 in which he was below-average. In 2007 he saw his OBP shoot up .30 points. That was caused by both a bump in his BB%(from 9% in 2006 to 12% in 2007), and an increase in his BABIP(from .310 to .329). I expect that BB% and BABIP to experience a bit of a regression, and the fact that he’s turning 30 and plays a very physically demanding position, will cause a bit of a decline in his performance. Roberts is a very efficient and dangerous base stealer. Last year he had a 87% Stolen base percentage, and according to my raw calculations based on Tango Tiger’s Linear Weights chart(Click), Roberts earned the O’s about 6 runs on the base paths. That’s very good.

Ramon Hernandez is another player the Orioles are “stuck” with for a couple of years. He’s signed through 2009 for about $7 million a year, which also makes him practically immovable. Last year he only played in 106 games because of injuries, and he hit .258/.333/.382., which is an OPS .2 higher than the AL average for catchers. Who’s going to want to take a 31, soon to be 32-year old average catcher with a contract that large? Their only hope is that a team like the Mets gets really desperate and deals for him, which is very unlikely.

Back to his performance, this is another position where the Orioles will have sub-par contributions.


Starting Rotation:

The Orioles will be without their ace, Erik Bedard, who was dealt to Seattle earlier this month. Jeremy Guthrie, who the O’s picked up after the Indians designated him for assignment, will more than likely be their Opening Day starter. Guthrie, who relies on a 96 MPH fastball, a changeup, which is the pitch he went to the most last year, and a slider, had a breakout year last 2007. The deal with Guthrie is that he doesn’t strike out many, but he also doesn’t walk many. He’ll experience some regression this year, much like his .277 BABIP. Guthrie isn’t a “#1 starter”, but he is a very credible #3 for a contender, and I do think he’ll draw interest around the trade deadline.

Adam Loewen is projected to be the O’s #3 starter. He missed most of last season with a stress fracture in his pitching elbow. Loewen is expected to be at full strength in ‘07, though I’m honestly not sure how it’ll affect his performance. I do see him struggling with walks, which he’s always struggled with, anyways(average 5.22 BB/9 in the minors).

Daniel Cabrera will be the O’s #3 starter. Cabrera, who has a filthy slider, has never been able to live up to his potential because of his control problems, improved his BB/9 from ‘06 to ‘07(6.32 to 4.76), but it was still well below average. While he has shown improvement, and while the time he spent in AAA during the ‘06 season did help him, I don’t see his control improving much more this late in his career, and he’ll never be the pitcher the Orioles wished he would be.

Troy Patton, who saw very little time in the majors last season, Steve Trachsel, and Garret Olson will fill out the back end of the rotation. Patton is an extreme command pitcher, and he flew through the Astros minor league system. Another fast riser, this time through the O’s minor league is system, is Garret Olsen, who I really like. Olson's peripherals are impressive in the minors(average 8.82 K/9 and 2.82 BB9). But, the scouts don’t like seem to like the guy. According to some scouting reports I’ve read, he doesn’t have any dominant pitches and he has average stuff. Or he doesn’t have the “good face” or some shit.

Trachsel will probably get the nod as the 4th starter, though, seeing how he’s the veteran and all.

Bullpen:

The bullpen will be this team’s strength.

Left-handed pitcher George Sherrill, who had an impressive year last year, is expected to close. His FB doesn’t possess much speed, but he has great movement on his slider. He’ll have a great year, and could draw some interest from other teams. Why wouldn’t Baltimore trade him if they get more rebuilding pieces? After all, he is 30. Oh, yeah. Angelos…

Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker will be used as situationals against righties and lefties, respectively(kudos to KRS..Shaun..whatever). Bradford has started to see a decline in his performance, but last year he had a pretty high BABIP, so some regression is expected in his BABIP. Walker had a good year last year, and he was especially dominant against LHPs.

Dennis Sarfarte will start the year as the setup man, but I don’t see him holding that spot too long. He’s always struggled with his control, and considering the fact that he has very little major league experience, I just see him struggling a lot throughout his 1st full year.


Projection:

This year will be a rough one for the O’s. They lost their best starting pitcher and an alright contributor to their offense. They do seem to be moving in the right direction, though you can never be sure what the hell Angelos plans to do next. Player development should be a priority for the O’s this season. They also need to try and shed off some of those big, worthless contracts they have. Maybe they can dump them off on a fool like Omar Minaya. :D

While I’m expecting their pyth record to be bad, they do possess one quality that teams that have significantly over performed their pyth records have possessed, such as the Dbacks, which is a good bullpen.


My projections(Educated guess, considering additions, subtractions, development, regressions, etc.):

RS: 737
RA: 894

Pythagorean Record(I actual plugged those numbers into the formula, so this is based on my projected RS/RA):

Pyth: 65-97

Keep in mind that I’m not predicting the Orioles to go 63-99. There are other factors that affect a team’s record such as luck, injuries, etc.
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dbacksfan
I am a Ignorant Nazi Ass

Quote:
 
There is a possibility that Roberts gets dealt between now and the trade deadline, but according Jon Heyman, Angelos is reluctant to deal him because he reminds him or himself or some Angelos bullshit.

:rotfl: Really!?
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dbacksfan
I am a Ignorant Nazi Ass

dbacksfan
Feb 14 2008, 08:33 AM
Quote:
 
There is a possibility that Roberts gets dealt between now and the trade deadline, but according Jon Heyman, Angelos is reluctant to deal him because he reminds him or himself or some Angelos bullshit.

:rotfl: Really!?

Where did the edit button go? Anyways...

Quote:
 
He’s peripherals are impressive in the minors(average 8.82 K/9 and 2.82 BB9). But, the scouts don’t like seem to like the guy, according to some of what I’ve read, he doesn’t have any dominant pitches and he has average stuff. Or he doesn’t have the “good face” or some shit. Meh.

:eek:
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UnderPressure
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Gotta love Miranda

The second "report" button.
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Mariners in 2009
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Angelos is a douche...
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sportslover
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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...coop/index.html

Quote:
 
There is now a feeling in Orioles land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).


:mellow:
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Mariners in 2009
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:rotfl:

Wow.
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dbacksfan
I am a Ignorant Nazi Ass

sportslover
Feb 14 2008, 03:42 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...coop/index.html

Quote:
 
There is now a feeling in Orioles land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).


:mellow:

:rotfl:
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Common Sense
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USF's #1 Producer

Wow the Orioles are going to be terrible this year. But at least they have alot of young talent. Interested to see what Jones does over the course of this year.
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KRS-One
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So long, and thanks for all the fish...

Dear Peter Angelos,

I would like to first start off by saying that I am a huge Orioles fan. I have been my entire life, and I will be until the day I die (and, hopefully, beyond). Now, on to the point.

I would never wish death on anyone, but you're almost 80 years old now. Surely your profession as a lawyer has drained you, both physically and mentally, over the years. Doesn't a nice, long nap just sound lovely?

If you're interested, please contact me at 410.555.1212

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Jack Kevorkian
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