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| Team Preview: Oakland Athletics; <3 Billy Beane...no homo | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:10 am (162 Views) | |
| sportslover | Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:10 am Post #1 |
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Oakland Athletics 2007 Record: 76-86 2007 Pythag Record: 79-83 Additions: Keith Foulke Emil Brown Joey Devine Losses: Dan Haren Nick Swisher Mark Kotsay Marco Scutaro Impact players heading into ‘08: Joe Blanton- 5.48 K9, 1.57 BB9, 3.95 ERA 2008 ZIPS-5.16 K9, 2.22 BB9, 4.22 ERA Travis Buck- .288/.377/.474/130 OPS+ 2008 ZIPS- .283/.360/.458 Huston Street- 50 IP, 11.34 K9, 2.16 BB9, 2.88 ERA 2008 ZIPS- 71 IP, 9.38 K9, 1.52 BB, 2.92 ERA Daric Barton- 84 PA, .347/.429/.639/186 OPS+ 2008 ZIPS- .280/.369/.440 Preview: The A’s are in the middle of a rebuilding process, as they’ve traded their most important players from last year during the off-season, and they might not be done. Though the rumors have died down, Joe Blanton could still be traded sometime during the season. I can also assure you, if Eric Chavez had any sort of value left, he would be on his way out. This will be a tough season for the A’s, as they have a lot of unproven players in both their rotation and in their lineup. The plan is for Oakland to be contending again by the time their new ballpark is completed, which would be 2010, but that could be a bit soon. 2011 seems like a more realistic possibility. The A's do play in a division that has a lot "Ifs", so if they find themselves in contention around the deadline, it is possible that Billy Beane goes out there and starts wheelin' and dealin'. Offense: The A’s lineup is going to be younger this year. The problem is, they are going to have trouble scoring runs, especially if Jack Cust turns out to be a fluke. They’ll also be missing the guy with the 2nd highest VORP on their team after Cust, Nick Swisher. So potentially, the two players that lead them in VORP last year will be no more(if Cust’s numbers take a hit). While the organization will continue to stress the importance of plate discipline(look at the chart below), they won’t have much power and many home-run threats. The days of waiting for the long ball are gone for the A’s -- at least for now. Eric Chavez and Jack Cust are the only two that have visible 25 HR potential, and neither one is a lock to produce that, or in Chavez’s case, to play. Daric Barton certainly has the potential to be a 25-30 HR guy someday, but he has yet to grow into his power. There could certainly be a power outage in Oakland in 2008. Like always, the A’s were at the top of the league in walks(2nd, behind to only the Boston Red Sox). Look at this chart(Hat tip to Patrick Sullivan, who first posted it): This is a summary of how the American League teams performed when the count was 3-0, and the columns of the left represents how they did after 3-0. ------PA-----AB---AVG/SLG-------Post-3&0 AVG/OBP/SLG BOS---175---11--.455/1.182-------.277/.761/.563 NYY---153---7----.429/.571--------.350/.776/.675 TOR---148----9---.444/.667---------.327/.767/.523 BAL---129----3---.333/.667------.235/.713/.395 TBR---133----8---.500/1.500------.316/.749/.518 CLE---176---16--.375/.813---------.330/.789/.594 DET---128----9--.444/.778----------.324/.732/.613 MIN---125----6---.333/.500--------.315/.773/.554 CHW---132----6---.333/1.333-------.324/.732/.613 KCR---101----7---.286/.714--------.232/.717/.316 LAA---168---15---.600/1.267--------371/.806/.670 SEA---130---10---.200/.200--------.301/.743/.398 OAK---141---0-----NA/NA-----------.351/.815/.670 TEX---105---4---.250/.500--------.297/.739/.525 What that basically says about Oakland last year is that in the 141 PA they had when the count was 3-0, they walked all 141. That says a lot about the organization’s approach to hitting. Of the 3 players Oakland is bringing up within their organization, Suzuki, Barton, and Buck, all of have posted BB% around 10% in their minor league careers, so Oakland does have a chance to be at the top in walks again. The left side of the infield is something to be worried about, or to be more specific, their backs is something to be worried about. I;m referring to Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez. Chavez has already experienced his first setback of the year, and will more than likely miss the 1st series of the year against the Red Sox. Really, any type of production from Crosby and Chavez will be positive. Then, there is Jack Cust. The guy who strikes out nearly 50% of the time, and seemingly walks the rest of his plate appearances. If Cust does turn out to be a fluke, then the offense will greatly suffer. Duh, the guy had a .900 OPS last year. It was unnecessary for me to say that. I apologize. It really is hard to do what Cust did last year when you strike out so much. All in all, the offense will lack slugging, as in major lack, but will continue to stress patience and plate discipline. They could potentially have major trouble knocking in those runners, though. Pitching: Apart from Blanton, who like I said, still could be traded, the 4 other spots in the rotation are going to be like revolving doors. A healthy Rich Harden would help the staff out tremendously, but a healthy Harden isn’t very likely. Blanton isn’t a power pitcher by any means. He throws a fastball in the lower 90’s, and he only struck out around 5.89 per 9 innings last year, which is below league average. What he doesn’t do is walk a lot of batter, as he only walked 1.57 per 9 last year. Chad Gaudin will be the only other starter apart from Blanton who made at least 25 starts for the A’s last year, and he had hip surgery during December of 2007. He’s exactly the type of pitcher the A’s don’t embrace, which is a guy with ugly peripherals(6.95 K9, 4.52 BB9). He did induce groundballs well last year, over 50%, which is great. The problem with that is that he’s never been much of a groundball pitcher, so he should experience a regression in that category. That would affect his numbers tremendously. In most other teams, Gaudin is nothing more than a 5th starter. With the A’s, he’ll be their 3rd best, and if Harden goes down, their 2nd best. Oh, and if Blanton is traded and Harden hit’s the DL, he’ll be their “ace”. I’m throwing that term around loosely. :mellow: The back end spots of the rotation will be a combination of reliever-turned-starter due to depth problems Justin Duchscherer, Lenny Dinardo, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, and possibly Gio Gonzalez. Justin Duchescherer, who missed big portion of last year with a hip injury, is projected to be the A’s 4th starter. Duchescherer(how the fuck do you say his name?) was a starter throughout most of his minor league career, but he hasn’t started more than 3 games since 2003, when he started 20 for the A’s triple-A affiliate. He’s been very effective with the A’s as a reliever, but who knows if he’ll be able to become an effective starter, especially coming off of hip surgery. Lenny Dinardo might start as the team’s 5th starter. Dinardo is a groundball pitcher who strikes out almost as many as he walks. If he can keep his BB% down, he could be a nice pitcher for the A’s, considering they have a great defensive 2B, and a great 3B…if that guy could stay healthy. Gio Gonzalez, who could get a crack in the majors if the other candidates struggle, will start out the year with the Sacramento River Cats(AAA). Gonzalez has a dynamic delivery, and he is an absolute strikeout machine(11.10 and 9.66 K9 the past twos seasons respectively), though he has struggled with control in the minors. This rotation will be league average at its best, and straight up ugly if Blanton is traded and Harden gets injured. As for their bullpen, if healthy, the A’s have one of the best young closers in the game today. If he pitches the whole year, Street will be on the best closers in the majors. The rest of the bullpen will consist of Santiago Casilla, Alan Embree, Rudy Lugo, Kiko Calero and Dan Meyer. They should be below average to average. Chances are you’ll see Huston Street turn into a true Bullpen Ace and throw multiple innings a lot this season. Defense: The A’s certainly recognize the importance of a good defense, and it’s one of the reasons they’ve been able to prevent runs while having “meh” pitchers on the mound. They were one of the top teams defensively last year, placing 2nd in the plus/minus system. Mark Ellis is a great defensive 2nd baseman, but much like Adam Everett, he gets no credit. He’ll continue to save the A’s runs at second. Ellis really is one of the most underrated players in baseball; not only does he provide you with true Gold Glove defense, but he does while contributing above-average numbers for his position. The defense is still solid all around, except for their OF, especially when Jack Cust is thrown out there. Denorfia isn’t much of a centerfield, and he doesn’t have much experience out there. He’s also going to be covering a big outfield. Projection: The A’s fans are going to have to go through something they have not gone through in a long time, which is a rebuilding process. The team completely retooled during the off-season, and they might not be done. While I don’t believe they’ll contend, if some things happen to go right for them, which some things already have(Angels starters injured), and they find themselves in contention around the All-Star break, is it possible they bring in the mythological figure, or not so much, known as Barry Bonds. I seriously doubt Billy gives a shit about the locker room problems, as long as Bonds continues to do what he did last year. The end. My projections(Educated guess, considering additions, subtractions, development, regressions, etc.): RS: 718 RA: 809 Pythagorean Record(I actual plugged those numbers into the formula, so this is based on my projected RS/RA): Pyth: 72-90 |
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| Mariners in 2009 | Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:47 am Post #2 |
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Nice write-up, but you could have skipped the A's and no one would have noticed.
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| sportslover | Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:52 pm Post #3 |
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The SF Chronicle reports the Yankees are interested in Rich Harden:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...8/SP74VLU7F.DTL |
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| NGO | Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:44 pm Post #4 |
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Is Mike Sweeney going to have any value for this team? |
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| sportslover | Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:53 pm Post #5 |
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Yeah, he should have some value, though he's 33 and is coming off of two seasons where he's had injury problems. The lineup is loaded with left-handed batters, so he adds balance to the lineup and a possible platoon situation at DH if Cust experiences a regression or at 1st if Barton struggles. |
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| UnderPressure | Thu Mar 20, 2008 7:31 pm Post #6 |
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Gotta love Miranda
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Is Kurt Suzuki the real deal...? |
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| sportslover | Wed Mar 26, 2008 5:58 pm Post #7 |
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Something else on Sweeney. Beane has been able to sign older players who have been deemed as "imperfect" and get a lot of production from them(most notably Frank Thomas and David Justice) for a very small price, and this could very well be the case with Sweeney(signed to a Minor-league contract). This was actually one of the points made in Moneyball. Obviously, there's no serious correlation between what Justice and Thomas produced and Sweeney, but it's the same case. |
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