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Neyer ranks Top 50 Players over the next 5 years
Topic Started: Tue Mar 25, 2008 8:43 pm (362 Views)
sportslover
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fcukernaut
Mar 27 2008, 10:30 AM


Firstly, their second years are not too dissimilar from each other. Secondly, in those first two years, what has suggested that Melky is going to be a borderline Superstar or even a consistent All-Star like Alex Rios has?


Nothing has, and nor did I argue that.

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Batting practice may not be a place to scout players but for anyone who went in an watched Rios take BP in his first season or two, you would see a sweet power swing and he'd hit it into the top deck at the Skydome consistently(only Jose Conseco, Manny Ramirez, Bengie Molina and Carlos Delgado have hit there in a game) then come game time he couldn't figure it out.


Batting practice is a terrible place to scout players.:mellow:

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But in his third season I believe he hit 16 HR's before the all star break, then had that staff infection that derailed his season. Then again last year hitting in the mid-teens in bombs at the break and then having injuries hit in the second half. Rios is a .295+ AVG, 30 HR, 100RBI, 100run guy and if the Jays allowed base stealer's he'd be pushing for a 30/30 season. Does Melky have the potential for those numbers? I personally don't see it. I see a very good player but I don't see perennial All-Star.


Melky is a potential 100 RBI 100 Run guy if you stick him in the middle of the lineup in a good lineup. A lot of major leaguers are.

No, he's definitely not, but I wasn't arguing that. Or that he's better than Rios, but it's not "out of this world" or "unbelievable" that Melky could have a better 5 years than Rios. I sure as hell wouldn't bet money on it, though..


"sportslover"
 
Melky also had a better K/BB ratio than Rios did last year, and he has more defensive value.


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But Rios had a higher batting average, more runs, more hits, more doubles, more homeruns, more RBIs, more stolen bases and is entering the prime of his career. As for defensively, at the very least it's a wash. They are both corner outfielders who should be playing in center, but for a veteran who is taking that spot already(Damon and Wells respectively), although isn't Melky now full-time in center?. Rios has that howitzer for an arm and will continue to have one of the strongest arms in baseball for the next  five years at least.


Batting average makes my skin crawl when used alone. Melky doesn't have the arm Rios has, but he does have more range in CF, where he's become a regular.

I referred to K/BB because that's a better predictive tool. Really pointless of me to do so, though.
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fcukernaut
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Our Lord and Saviour Brian Colangelo

sportslover
 
Nothing has, and nor did I argue that.


No, but it was central to my argument that some of this list is completely wrong. For Melky to outproduce Rios he's going to have to be an all-star consistently for the next five years. Given that no one has definitively stepped up and said that it is possible than I've essentially been proven right.

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Batting practice is a terrible place to scout players.


Definitely is, but when a guy hits one HR in well over 140 games it is easy to say he's a bitch with no power and at best is a lead off hitter. But then you see him drill these 500+ feet bombs with high arc into the top deck it makes your mouth drop.

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No, he's definitely not, but I wasn't arguing that. Or that he's better than Rios, but it's not "out of this world" or "unbelievable" that Melky could have a better 5 years than Rios. I sure as hell wouldn't bet money on it, though..


So we're arguing over the difference between highly unlikely and impossible?

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Batting average makes my skin crawl when used alone. Melky doesn't have the arm Rios has, but he does have more range in CF, where he's become a regular.


Had the Giants been dumb enough to trade us Lincecum in the off-season for Rios we could see how well Rios matches up in CF defensively over 162 games instead of just 20 different one off during the season.
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