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Team Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
Topic Started: Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:10 pm (53 Views)
sportslover
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Pittsburgh Pirates

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2007 Record: 68-94
2007 Pythag Record: 70-92



Additions:

None

Losses:

None

Impact players heading into ‘08:

Tom Gorzelamy- 3.88 ERA, 6.02 K9, 3.03 BB9
2008 ZIPS- 4.16 ERA, 6.26 K9, 2.98 BB9


Ian Snell- 3.86 ERA, 7.66 K9, 2.94 BB9
2008 ZIPS- 4.48 ERA, 7.40 K9, 2.92 BB9


Adam Laroche- .272/.345/.458/108 OPS+
2008 ZIPS- .272/348/.492


Preview:

Since Balco Bonds left the club, the Pirates have not had a winning season. That’s 15 seasons. The Pirates hope to turn things around this year, and they’ve brought in a more statistically-minded GM() and front office.

Last year they were last in the Central, and ranked at the bottom in basically every major and important pitching and hitting category. No wonder they were last, huh.

To their credit, they did have some players underachieve(Bay and Laroche) and they do have a really young pitching staff.

They also play in arguably the worst division in the Central, which facilitates their chances of contending.


Offense:

The offense has a potentially dangerous middle-of-the-order. That would be Laroche and Bay, who had off years last year.

Laroche struggled during the 1st half of the season last year. Most of his numbers like his BB% stayed the same, but his HR/FB% was down tremendously, and it should regress. He showed a lot of promise during the 2nd half, hitting .312/.371/.482. He should have a big year.

The other struggling slugger the Pirates had last year was Jason Bay. After 3 straight seasons of posting an OPS+ over 130, he went down to a below-average, and even worse for a corner OF, OPS+ of 92. Some of that decline can be credited to Bay’s knee problems(he had arthroscopic knee surgery the previous off-season). That led to him losing confidence during the season. Reports from spring training say that Bay has looked lazy and doesn’t seem interested in playing with the Pirates, but who knows, it’s just one stupid report. It’d be stupid for me to talk about what has happened to Bay, when an in-depth analysis of his struggles can be found here:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles...-jason-bay.html

At 2B, the Pirates have Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez is a pure contact hitter who has very little power. The thing Sanchez needs to work on is plate discipline and walks. The reason he’s been able to keep above-average OBPs is because of the high averages he‘s posted. Last year his BB% was a miniscule 5%. If he can raise his OBP, and get on base in front of the Laroches and Bays, the team’s offense would benefit tremendously.

The Pirates don’t have many other impressive hitters in their lineup. Xavier Nady is an average hitter, and below average for a corner OF. He should regress a bit this year, as his FB% was kinda high last year and his GB% was low. Jose Bautista has 20-HR potential. Ronny Paulino experienced a noticeable regression from ‘06 to ‘07. In 2006, his BABIP was .367, and that regressed, which affected his OBP. He does have some pop for a catcher and has some potential. Of all the regulars, Jack Wilson had the highest OBP. That’s not saying much, but he should be hitting in the 1st two spots in the lineup.

The offense has a chance to be either alright or a bust. If Bay and Laroche bounce back and produce, then they will be alright. If they don’t, then I really don’t see much thunder from this offense at all.

Pitching:

Their rotation is really young. 4 out of their 5 starters will be 26 or younger next year.

The ace will be Ian Snell(or, he’s the best pitcher, I believe Gorzelanny is getting the opening day start). Snell K’s an average amount of batters and doesn’t walk many.

I don’t like Tom Gorzelanny that much. His peripherals are pretty weak, and he’s league average when it comes to inducing ground balls. Plus the fact that he gave up a dangerous amount of fly balls last year. How he’s been able to posts 112 and 117 ERAs the past two years puzzles me.

Paul Maholm has a chance to be better than Gorzelanny. While he doesn’t whiff an impressive amount of batters, he doesn’t walk many either. Combine that with a good GB%, and you have a solid major league pitcher.

Zach Duke and Matt Morris are their last 2 starters. Duke isn’t that great of pitcher. He’s actually gotten worse over the years, which is troublesome with a young guy like him. Morris really struggled with Pittsburgh last year. His K9 hit a career low last year, and his fastball averaged about 88 MPH. Those are the effects of age on a guy who never really had great stuff.

Overall, the Pirates’ rotation is average. Snell is the only guy that really impresses me, though Maholm does have potential if he can keep the ball on the ground and keep his walks down. The good thing is that they are very young.

Matt Capps(closer) and Damaso Marte(SU) who had ERA+ of 191 and 183 last year respectively form a formidable duo in the bullpen. Capps is a control specialist, but his GB%(only 30%) and FB%(50%) are alarming, especially since he doesn‘t strike out that many batters. He needs to fix that, or he won’t be so luck as to have a 4-something HR/FB%.

Marte has a fastball and slider with some nice movement. He’s always had problems with allowing walks, but has been able to whiff an impressive amount of batters.

That’s really all the Pirates have in their bullpen.


Defense:

Pittsburgh wasn’t very good defensively last year, and won’t be this year, either. Jack Wilson is a good defensive SS, though.


Projection:

If everything works out for the Pirates, they could linger around .500 for most of the year. I doubt Bay ever gets back to being the Bay of old, so they’re offense will be pretty anemic. They do have solid pitching, which is the 4th best in their division.

I could give them a positive projection, as in “If-Everything-Works-Out” projection, but that’s not very likely. I’ll go with something more realistic


b]My projections(Educated guess, considering additions, subtractions, development, regressions, etc.):[/b]


RS: 746
RA: 802


Pythagorean Record(I actual plugged those numbers into the formula, so this is based on my projected RS/RA):

Pyth: 75-87



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jrmycmpfan
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Keep cool my babies

Question: Why does the Pirates suck so much balls?
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NGO
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Unlike what the Pirates players, fans and what some of the Media is saying, the best thing they did was not overpay for free agents.
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