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| Tweet Topic Started: Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:30 pm (69 Views) | |
| sportslover | Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:30 pm Post #1 |
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Tampa Bay Rays![]() 2007 Record: 66-96 2007 Pythag Record: 67-95 Additions: Matt Garza Jason Bartlett, Troy Percival Trever Miller Losses: Delmon Young Elijah Dukes Impact players heading into ‘08: Scott Kazmir: 10.41 K/9 3.88 BB/9 3.48 ERA ZIPS: 9.86 K/9 3.23 BB/9 3.64 ERA James Shields: 7.70 K/9 1.51 BB/9 3.85 ERA ZIPS: 7.27 K/9 1.77 BB/9 ERA 4.38 Carlos Pena: .282/.411/.627 172 OPS+ ZIPS: .266/.400/.531 BJ Upton: .300/.386/.508 136 OPS+ ZIPS: .278/.363/.452 Carl Crawford: .315/.355/.466 117 OPS+ ZIPS: .316/.356/.479 Preview: Since their insertion into the league in 1998, the Rays have not had a winning season. In fact, they haven’t surpassed the .435 winning percentage mark. They’ve also come in last in the East in all of those years except for 2004, when they came in 4th, ahead of the Blue Jays. All of that could very well change this year. The Rays have a great mix of young hitting and young pitching which could very well break out this year. This year they have the best pitching they’ve ever had, and they probably have the most security at closer they’ve ever had, too. The rotation has a trio of young studs in Kazmiz, Shields, and Matt Garza, and they have the #1 pick in the 2007 draft, David Price, in the minors. The Rays no longer have the depth in the OF they used to have. Young and the other coon were traded, and OF Rocco Baldelli has a career-threatening disease. Who’s going to play RF? Top prospect Evan Longoria was supposed to start the year in the majors, but due to “business-related” reasons, he’ll start the year in the minors and more than likely be called up sometime in May/June. How the Rays handled their large assembly of young players both on and off the field(as in resigning players) will determine if they’ll be able to contend with the Evil Empire(s) in the AL East. It’s not necessarily how much money they’ll have, but how they use it. Offense: The two “catalyst”, if that’s the right word, of this offense are Carl Crawford and B.J Upton. After bouncing around from position to position, which was huge mistake made by the Rays, B.J Upton seems to have settled down in CF. Upton broke out last year, and will continue to develop as a hitter in his 2nd full season in the majors. The thing that jumps out immediately is his incredibly high .399 BABIP. That will surely regress, and his OBP shouldn’t be as high as it was last year. Of course, his BB% could improve, which would diminish the hit that his OBP will take because of the BABIP regression. Another guy who had a notoriously high BABIP is Carl Crawford. It was .375, but he’s always posted pretty high BABIP(career .334), so the drop-off shouldn’t be that bad. I’m not as high on Crawford as some people are, though. We know he’s base stealing ability is great, but apart from his speed, nothing from his game is that impressive. His OBP, which has never been very high to begin with, is highly reliant of a high batting average, meaning he doesn’t walk much(4.7 career BB%). He did have a career high OBP in 2007, but as I noted earlier, that was because he posted a high BABIP that should regress. We’ve always waited for the power numbers to emerge, but he’s 26, and nothing? He really doesn’t have a power swing, so I don’t see that power ever emerging. Don’t get me wrong, Crawford is a good, maybe even great, baseball player and really talented, but he’ll never be the superstar some people think he is. For that, he’ll at least need to get on base more. The other good hitter the Rays have in their lineup is Comeback Player of The Year Carlos Pena. Pena had a tremendous year last year, and would have [ should have] gotten more notoriety as a MVP candidate if he weren’t playing for the Rays(he was 9th in voting). Pena is due for another big year, though he won’t repeat what he did last year. I’d say he’ll have an all-star type season. Around those 3, the Rays have some nice complementary players. Akinori Iwamura had a nice season, as he posted a .359 OBP and had 38 XBH. It’s very possible that he can repeat that, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bat him 2nd, though you wouldn’t want that many lefties at the top of your order. Dioner Navarro had a pretty mediocre year in ‘07, posting an OPS+ of 70. He showed a lot of promise during the 2nd half of the season, though, hitting .285/.340/.475. He also had a really low BABIP of .253, which will regress and bump his numbers. His ceiling is unknown, but no way in hell he’s as bad as he was last year. Stud, if I’m allowed to use it this time, Evan Longoria will start the year in AAA. Rays management say they're doing this because he didn’t look very good in Spring Training, but this is mostly because Evan is a “Super-Two” eligible player, and the Rays want to avoid that. Last year, the Brewers did this with Braun, and it possibly cost them a playoff berth. This is a different situation though, since most people don’t feel like the Rays have a realistic chance to contend with the Evil Empire(s) in their division. Longoria truly is a great player; he can hit for power, average, get on base and draw walks, and is said to be a very good fielding 3B. He does have the ability to make an immediate impact in 2008. His career MiLB OPS is .934, and he‘s dominated every level of baseball he‘s played in. Very impressive. Instead, the Rays will have Willy Aybar to start the season off as their starting 3B. He’s nowhere near the player Longoria is, and will not produce as much as Evan would. The RF situation is unclear for the Rays. Last year they had too many Ofers(Young, Baldelli, and Dukes all possible Rfs), and now they don’t have enough. Apparently, the two guys that were going to platoon at DH, Jonny Gomes and Cliff Floyd, will also split time in RF. Reports say that the Rays offered Kenny Lofton a contract, but he rejected it. He’d be a great fit for this team. It’s really sad to see such an amazing talent like Baldelli see his career go to waste because of his mitochondrial disease, which affects his legs and their stamina. It’d be great if he can ever get back to playing baseball. This offense is very exciting heading into 2008. If they’re able to sign a valid RF such as Lofton(hell, maybe Bonds as DH and slide Gomes to RF full-time), and Navarro bounces back, and add Longoria to the mix in June, this is a very good lineup. I’m really high on it. Pitching: The Rays rotation features some young, talented pitchers. Scott Kazmir will start the year on the DL with a left elbow strain, but could be reactivated as soon as April 6th. He’s not supposed to miss more than 2 starts. Kazmir is the team’s ace, and is ready for another great year, and hopefully another +200 IP. Behind him, the Rays have James Shields, Matt Garza, Andrew Sonnanstine, and ex-top prospect Edwin Jackson. Shields had a great year in 2007, posting a great K/BB and the 2nd best ERA+ on the staff(117). He completes a great Lefty-Righty combo at the top of the rotation for the Rays. Garza and Sonnanstine are the last two good pitchers the Rays have in their rotation. Garza, who has quick delivery made for a power pitcher, still has a lot of room to grow as a pitcher. He has the ability to strike out a lot of batters, and he doesn’t walk many, either. As for Sonnanstine, he struggled mightily last year with run prevention. While his peripherals weren’t necessarily bad, he struggled with the amount of FB% he gave, which turned into a lot of Hrs. That shouldn’t be happening again; Sonnanstine posted some good Groundball numbers in the minors, and they should regress. Sonnanstine has the ability to have a good year for the Rays. His BB9 in the minors was an impressive 1.39, and that didn’t change in the majors last year, as he only walked 1.79 per 9. His K9 should also improve this year. The last spot in the rotation belongs to Edwin Jackson. Jackson has a live arm and is very talented, but has never been able to take control, literally, of his pitching talent. He reminds me of Daniel Cabrera in some ways. Jackson has nice 95 MPH fastball, but has struggled to find a secondary pitch. He’s also struggled with control, walking 5.02 per 9 in his major league career. The Rays also have 2007 #1 pick David Price in the minors. Some seem to think that he’ll be ready to contribute to the Rays rotation as soon as this year, but it’d be better if they let him develop in the minors. Overall, the starting pitching is good at best, and average in a worst case scenario. I’m not going to say they have a chance to have the best rotation like Sporting News’ David Pinto thinks, yet, as they’re still very young, but when Price is major league, and if Kazmir stays, their rotation will be scary. The bullpen will have rejuvenated reliever Troy Percival. Percival had an impressive K/BB in 2007 with the Cardinals. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher, who didn’t give up a lot of Hrs last year because Busch extremely regresses Hrs. While Tropicana is no hitters park, it still is a pretty big move he’s making and it could jeopardize his status as the Rays closer. The other 2 candidates for the closer’s role(and setup men) are last year’s closer Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler. Wheeler is the better pitcher, and while he too is a fly-ball pitcher, the large dimensions of Tropicana in CF will protect him more because he’s not as an extreme FB pitcher as Percival. Al Reyes is another FB pitcher who could be competing for the job if the other 2 falter. Trever Miller will be the team’s resident LOOGY, or left-handed specialist. The rest of bullpen will have the likes of Gary Glover and J.P Howell. It’ll be a pretty good bullpen. They have 3 good FB pitchers with nice peripherals, who better hope the hitters hit those fly balls to centerfield, where the dimensions favor them. Defense: Last year the Rays were the worst team defensively in the majors via both the plus/minus system and RZR. Apparently, the new Rays management does understand the importance of fielding, as they have done some things to fix their terrible defense, as small as they may be. They added Jason Bartlett at shortstop, who was 5th in plus/minus system at shortstop with a +18. In contrast, last year they had Brendan Harris at short the majority of the time, who was the 3rd WORST defensive SS, with a -19. Going by Baseball Prospectus FRAA(Fielding Runs Above Average), the Rays are making about a 30 run improvement by bringing in Bartlett. That move also allows them to move Iwamura from 3B to 2B. Last year they had 2 shaky 2B in B.J Upton and Brendan Harris. Iwamura has a great arm for a 2B and a lot of range. Basically, the Rays made huge improvements up the middle, which also happen to be the 2 most important fielding positions excluding catcher. That alone will save them a lot of runs. Projection: The Rays have a great, young team, and their nucleus is especially impressive. While I don’t think they’ll be able to directly contend in 2008, they will be a very dangerous team and the Evil Empire(s) better watch out. Hopefully they’re able to lock up their young studs long term, as that along with smart management will be their key to success. My projections(Educated guess, considering additions, subtractions, development, regressions, etc.): RS: 796 RA: 808 Pythagorean Record(I actual plugged those numbers into the formula, so this is based on my projected RS/RA): Pyth: 80-82 |
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| yankee242B | Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:33 pm Post #2 |
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I'm a lead farmer, motherf...
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I love their new unis. And I like Evan "Almighty" Longoria. I think that guy's going to be a stud. Too bad they sent him back down. |
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| sportslover | Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:34 pm Post #3 |
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Maybe I'm too high on this team's pitching. According to me, their runs allowed would improve by 130-something runs. |
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| Mariners in 2009 | Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:44 pm Post #4 |
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Sucks Longoria went down, that really hurts his ROY chances. I was looking forward to watching him play. Also, I think Price will be in the rotation by August. |
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| M.O.B | Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:58 pm Post #5 |
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Is there a heaven for uh mobsta?
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Im pretty excited to see about "Boss Junior" Upton in Centerfield. He has always been one of my favorite young players. |
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| sportslover | Sat Mar 29, 2008 7:59 pm Post #6 |
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I can almost guarantee he'll be up by June, considering Willy Aybar is his replacement. |
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| aCutb | Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:04 pm Post #7 |
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I drink your milkshake
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He will be back up May 1st. It is just an excuse for the Rays so they don't have to pay Evan a full-season salary. He still has a good chance for ROY. |
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| sportslover | Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:05 pm Post #8 |
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It's so they avoid his super-two eligibility... |
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| aCutb | Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:06 pm Post #9 |
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I drink your milkshake
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Which saves them money? |
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| sportslover | Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:07 pm Post #10 |
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Yeah. They avoid a year of early arbitration, which in turn saves them money. And judging by the recent arbitration resolutions, it could be a lot of money. |
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7:52 PM Jul 10