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Team Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
Topic Started: Sun Mar 30, 2008 6:18 pm (40 Views)
sportslover
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St. Louis Cardinals

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2007 Record: 78-84
2007 Pythag Record: 71-91

Additions:
Troy Glaus
Jason Larue
Cesar Izturis
Kyle Lohse

Losses:
Scott Rolen
Jim Edmonds
David Eckstein


Impact players heading into ‘08:

Albert Pujols- .327/.429/.568
ZIPS- .327/.432/.593

Adam Wainwright

……..Ehem….



Preview:

To begin with, M’s has this team way too high. Apart from Pujols, Glaus, and Duncan(maybe Ankiel), the lineup is filled with duds and fill-ins.

As for their pitching, apart from Wainwright, their rotation is really uninspiring, as it’s full of 5th starters and experiments.

After years of being a powerhouse in the NL, it’s time for the Cards to take a backseat and rebuild.


Offense:

Like stated earlier, there isn’t much of anything in this lineup. They’ll have 3 hitters who posted an above average OPS and had at least 400 PA in 2007, which would be Pujols, Glaus, and Chris Duncan. 1 of those hitters has an elbow injury, and though I’m sure he’ll be able to deal with it, it’s very possibly that he hangs up the cleats early in the year if the Cards are sucking too hard. Another one of those, Troy Glaus, is injury-prone and he’ll probably be visiting the DL a couple of times during the year.

While Pujols showed that he can still rake with the nagging elbow injury, and could still have a big year, it’d probably better if he undergoes surgery and takes the year off. If he does, the lineup would be dangerously bad, thought not as bad as the Giants. Hopefully.

Behind him are Troy Glaus and Duncan. Glaus is a good hitter, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and has had trouble with back injuries. He’s already had a minor setback in camp, though it was his foot and not his back.

As for Duncan, he is a pretty good hitter with some solid on-base skills and some pop. I’d say he could hit 30 homeruns in a neutral ballpark, and not Bush.

From here on, the lineup just sucks. Ankiel has a chance to be average in CF. Most projections systems have him OPSing somewhere around .780. Molina is a solid offensive contributor for a catcher, but he’s nothing special.

Cardinals fans do have the arrival of top prospect Colby Rasmus to look forward to. Rasmus has posted good BB% in the minors, and dominated AA with a .930 OPS in 555 PA. According to Baseball Prospectus, and using MLEs(basically, translation of minor league numbers into major league equivalencies), Rasmus would have had a .279 EqA last year(That‘s higher than anything Eckstein has ever gotten). He’s major league ready, and should get the starting job sometime during the year.


With Pujols, this offense is average at best. Without him, they are terrible, though not as bad as the Giants. When Cesar Izturis is your big move, then you know you’re screwed.


Pitching:

The rotation has 2 pitchers who could miss most of 2008, Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder. There is no timetable for either, but they are expect sometime after the AS break.

The Cards Ace is Adam Wainwright, who would be a #2, maybe a #3 in most rotations. There is nothing impressive about Wainwright’s peripherals. He doesn’t strike out many, and while he doesn’t walk many, either, it’s not enough to offset his lack of Ks. Neither is his 48 GB%.

The Cardinals brought in Kyle Lohse to help out with their situation. Lohse has always had average K/BB and he’s a flyball pitcher, but the move from Philly to St. Louis should help out his ERA because of the park factors. Average pitcher who could give them 180 IP.

Behind those 2 the Cards have the likes of Matt Clement, Todd Wellemeyer(who?), Joel Pineiro, and Brad Thompson. All who could get a shot at the rotation sometime during the year.

As for the bullpen, it’s probably this team’s strength. The Cards have bullpen ace Jason Isringhausen. He’s still a good closer, though he saw his K9 take a hit. Izzy is still good for a 150 ERA+ and 35 saves. The question is: Will he get a chance to convert those saves?

Russ Springer is the 2nd best pitcher in their bullpen. Last year he had an astronomical 201 ERA+, while striking out a batter per inning and walking 2.59 per 9 innings. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but he doesn’t have to worry about much since Bush regresses homeruns. I doubt he puts up a 3.6 HR/FB again, though.

Ryan Franklin had a good year in ‘07, posting a 145 ERA+ with a 4 K/BB. He doesn’t miss many bats, but he also rarely walks anybody.

Apart from these 3 good pitchers, the Cards have the likes of Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores, who are average contributors. Like I said, this is the team’s strength, but that’s not saying much.


Defense:

The Cards were alright defensively in 2007. They have stud fielder Yadier Molina behind the plate and Albert Pujols. Two great defensive players.

They did lose Scott Rolen at 3rd, who has a lot more range than Glaus. They also lost Edmonds, who has lost a step in center(though he was still good). I’m not too sure on how good Ankiel will be in center, as he does have a lot of room to cover.

Izturis probably has more range at SS and certainly a better arm than Eckstein. Kennedy doesn’t have that much range at 2nd.

The Cards will probably be dead average defensively. They won’t cost their pitching that many runs, but they certainly won’t save them that many, either.



Projection:

This team has very little to write home about. Pujols is a stud, but I’d advise him to take a dive and undergo surgery this year, when the Cardinals don’t have much of a chance to contend. Flourishing prospect Colby Rasmus should be patrolling the OF sometime this year, though they shouldn’t rush him if they feel he isn’t ready. I think he is, though.

They have 2 injured pitchers who will be ready to contribute earlier in the year. I doubt either one of them will be that effective, though.

This isn’t the Cardinals year to contend. They should continue to rebuild, and will probably be sellers around the deadline, once they realize they don’t have a chance.

I’m probably being too harsh, and the Cardinals will probably prove me wrong and win the world series or something, and I’ll look like a total asshole, so I’ll just stop typing right here.

My projections(Educated guess, considering additions, subtractions, development, regressions, etc.):


RS: 703
RA: 834


Pythagorean Record(I actual plugged those numbers into the formula, so this is based on my projected RS/RA):

Pyth: 67-95
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Mariners in 2009
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67 wins? :huh:
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sportslover
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Mariners in 2008
Mar 30 2008, 07:30 PM
67 wins? :huh:

67 pyth wins. That's only a 4 game decline from last year.
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