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Official Stats Thread
Topic Started: Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:54 pm (1,085 Views)
sportslover
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Kavorka
Wed Jul 9, 2008 6:51 pm
ERA+ is adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark, right? Is FIP?

I'm really liking wOBA as a stat. You are my hero for posting all this stuff. Everyone hates you at FF for it, it seems. You disprove everything they say and all they respond with is "his BA is higherz!!!!!11111 0_o. Jo0 wrong." The AS threads are hilarious.
Yes, that's ERA+.

FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching ERA. It takes the 3 things we KNOW a pitcher can control and mutiplies them by their run value (the run values are changed so that it fits the scale of ERA: the basic formula is:

(HR * 13) + (BB * three) - )K * 2)/9.

The Hardball Times has a more complicated version:

(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP

FIP measures pure pitching effectivenes, but it ignores how many runs they allowed. Which.....eh. With one FIP) you avoid having flukey pitchers being overvalued but you ignore how many runs they allowed. Exact opposite for ERA+.
Edited by sportslover, Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:42 pm.
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sportslover
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PitchersWAR

There's the pitcher's version.

Again, here are the terms:

Player- Player's name
IP Start- IP as a starter......you can find those splits at baseball-reference.com
IP Relief- IP pitched as a starter
ERA+- Park and league adjusted ERA
W%: Basically a pitcher's value expressed in a W%. No, it's not based on his actual W/L record. It's just a way to transform his value into WAR.

08WAR$: A player's marginal $ value for the 2008 season. Remember if you're looking at the win value for a player for any season other than 2008, then you should ignore this column.

Also remember to differentiate between true talent level and his production for one season. Two different things. I actually made a copy and have 2 different spreadsheets for the 2.

The next version will include separate sheets for closers and will account for the leverage in which they pitched in.
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sportslover
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Bam.

PitchersWAR V.2.0

I added a separate sheet for closers, which is necessary considering they have a different replacement level.

I also added another column and something else that needs to be filled (for relievers and closers). It's Leverage, which is basically a measure of how crucial any plate appearance in a game is. 1 is the leverage at the beginning of the game, so if a closer or any other reliever has a leverage of 2 then he pitched in situations that were "twice as crucial".

You can find Leverage at Fangraphs.com in the player's player page. It's all the way down under the Win Probability section. The one you're looking for is pLI. So if you're going to fill in Mariano Rivera's leverage for the 2007 season, you go here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=844&position=P

Then scroll down to the Win Probability section, and look for his pLI for the 2007 season, which would be 1.78.

And if you're using projections (say for the 2008 season or whenever the 2009 projections come out), just go ahead and give closers a 2 leverage, setup men a 1.3, and any other type of reliever a 1.1.
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sportslover
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V.3.0 of hitter's WAR coming with park-adjusted wOBA.:)

And V.3.0 of pitcher's with a weighted use of FIP and ERA might come after I return from Panama City. :freakysmile:
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sportslover
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Updated version:

AL/NL Hitter's WAR

Big change in this one. wOBA will now be park-adjusted. In order for it to work you'll also have to input the park factor of the batter's home park. The park factors that you have to use are the ones that can be found at espn.com. Here are the 2007 ones:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2007

So if you're doing David Wright, you input his 2007 wOBA which is .405, and then you input Shea Stadium's Runs Park Factor which is .916. Then the awOBA (park-adjusted wOBA) column will autopopulate.

There isn't much more I can update for hitters. There isn't much more than can be done. I will update it to make it look cleaner once my excel skills sharpen up.

Thanks to Tom Tango, who has a blog right here. Be sure to read about The Book.

Also, thanks to Xeifrank who has a great blog right here. He was the one that told me how I can park-adjust wOBA.
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sportslover
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I just changed the Pitchers WAR to where it uses ERA (regular ERA) and FIP ERA. I basically add the 2 and divide by 2 to get what I call tERA. That's how I get WAR now. In an ideal world I'd weigh ERA and FIP ERA differently, but I'll worry about that some other time.

I'll upload it when I get back from Panama City Beach on Monday. :freakysmile:
Edited by sportslover, Sat Jul 12, 2008 2:08 am.
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