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Official Stats Thread
Topic Started: Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:54 pm (1,078 Views)
UnderPressure
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Gotta love Miranda

Average with RISP is misleading. But I don't think it's overrated.

Ok, you have a runner on second with no out and you get a single. You know how 3B coaches usually stop the runners in that situation. That counts as a hit with "RISP." But it won't count when you double or triple in a run from first.
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yankee242B
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I'm a lead farmer, motherf...

PressurePoint
Apr 28 2008, 11:05 AM
Average with RISP is misleading. But I don't think it's overrated.

Ok, you have a runner on second with no out and you get a single. You know how 3B coaches usually stop the runners in that situation. That counts as a hit with "RISP." But it won't count when you double or triple in a run from first.

How many coaches stop a runner on a single when the guy is coming from second? That doesn't happen very often.

Usually that's called "scoring position" for a reason, and the guy will at least be sent. Now, whether or not he scores is another thing. And yes, if for some reason he stops the runner at third, the guy is gonna still get a hit with RISP. But 1) that rarely happens and 2) just look at the rest of the hitter's stats with RISP. How many RBI does he have in that situation?

The point of avg w/RISP is to see if the guy hits when there are men at second or third (kind of a clutch thing). If he has a good average in that situation, chances are that those runs are scoring whether he's actually getting RBI or not. He's providing the opportunity for those runs to score. If his avg w/RISP is bad, he's probably not giving that opportunity.

And it's not very common that the coach would stop a guy on a clean single.

Try more than one stat at a time and usually you get a more accurate read of a player.
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UnderPressure
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Gotta love Miranda

That's why I said with "no out." A 3B coach will often hold the runner from second, unless the ball was thrown by Pierre or Damon or the runner is Reyes.
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yankee242B
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PressurePoint
Apr 28 2008, 03:08 PM
That's why I said with "no out." A 3B coach will often hold the runner from second, unless the ball was thrown by Pierre or Damon or the runner is Reyes.

No they won't, not on a clean hit. If it's hit right at an outfielder or if it's an infield hit, then yeah, they probably get held. But rarely do runners in scoring position not score on a hit.
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UnderPressure
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Gotta love Miranda

yankee242B
Apr 28 2008, 01:16 PM
PressurePoint
Apr 28 2008, 03:08 PM
That's why I said with "no out." A 3B coach will often hold the runner from second, unless the ball was thrown by Pierre or Damon or the runner is Reyes.

No they won't, not on a clean hit. If it's hit right at an outfielder or if it's an infield hit, then yeah, they probably get held. But rarely do runners in scoring position not score on a hit.

It depends on what kind of "clean hit" was made. With less than 2 out, especially with zero, the baserunner will freeze if it's a line drive to avoid getting doubled up in case the ball is caught, which will add some extra time to get from second to home. This will also happen if it was a blooping single. With two outs, the baserunner just runs all the way as soon as the ball is hit, obviously. What I'm saying is that a 3B coach prefers not to take the risk of getting his runner out at the plate with no out. They'll take their chances with the next batter to drive in the run.
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yankee242B
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I'm a lead farmer, motherf...

PressurePoint
Apr 28 2008, 05:45 PM
yankee242B
Apr 28 2008, 01:16 PM
PressurePoint
Apr 28 2008, 03:08 PM
That's why I said with "no out." A 3B coach will often hold the runner from second, unless the ball was thrown by Pierre or Damon or the runner is Reyes.

No they won't, not on a clean hit. If it's hit right at an outfielder or if it's an infield hit, then yeah, they probably get held. But rarely do runners in scoring position not score on a hit.

It depends on what kind of "clean hit" was made. With less than 2 out, especially with zero, the baserunner will freeze if it's a line drive to avoid getting doubled up in case the ball is caught, which will add some extra time to get from second to home. This will also happen if it was a blooping single. With two outs, the baserunner just runs all the way as soon as the ball is hit, obviously. What I'm saying is that a 3B coach prefers not to take the risk of getting his runner out at the plate with no out. They'll take their chances with the next batter to drive in the run.

And that's why avg. w/RISP, two outs is used more often. Again, combining and/or modifying stats usually offers a more well-rounded, accurate view of the player's ability.
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sportslover
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Zito is now the highest paid reliever in the game....
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sportslover
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If you're going to use clutch stats, you might as well look at the best there is: the leverage statistics baseball-reference.com has.

Here's A-Rod in 2007:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bspli...=2007#wpa-lever

There are *high, ^medium, and +low leverage situations. Leverage is in the same family as WPA, win expectancy, run expectancy( and those nifty little charts).

*(most crucial moments in a game ( like Bot 9th with 2 outs and trailing)
^what it says)
+ not very crucial moments, like an AB in a game where your team is losing/winning by 10
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JoeCoolMan24
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I got Alicia Sacramone

Hyltzn
May 1 2008, 08:09 PM
If you're going to use clutch stats, you might as well look at the best there is: the leverage statistics baseball-reference.com has.

Here's A-Rod in 2007:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bspli...=2007#wpa-lever

There are *high, ^medium, and +low leverage situations. Leverage is in the same family as WPA, win expectancy, run expectancy( and those nifty little charts).

*(most crucial moments in a game ( like Bot 9th with 2 outs and trailing)
^what it says)
+ not very crucial moments, like an AB in a game where your team is losing/winning by 10

I like that "leverage" thing because now I can PHYSICALLY prove to Cubs fans that Crede IS clutch. His highest BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, Babip, and lowerest strikeout rate is when it's high leverage, and

High - HR ev. 19 AB, RBI ev. 3.2 AB
Medium- HR ev. 21.5 AB, RBI ev. 6.8 AB
Low - HR ev. 24 AB, RBI ev. 10.6 AB



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sportslover
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http://www.brewcrewball.com/story/2007/3/7/22311/75137

:mellow:
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