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| Tweet Topic Started: Mon May 26, 2008 7:22 pm (524 Views) | |
| CHILL | Sun Jun 8, 2008 4:44 am Post #41 |
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#1: Who is more likely to win their division, Rays or Marlins? The Devil Rays are a far more advanced, complete team. The Marlins' early season fair amount of success is hitting its end. The numbers indicate this has been the luckiest group in Baseball thus far. Tampa Bay is far more likelier to win its Division to the point where this question will look silly by the end of the ear. This question just baits as foolproof for Marlins backers. Miami's Offense ranks 4th at the moment (Runs scored), while Tampa Bay appears to be a mile behind at 17th. Meanwhile, the Devil Rays are 10th in OBP, and the Marlins are 18th. Where Miami is making up for that is in the Slugging; the Marlins are 2nd in Major League Baseball. It is very likely this will not last throughout the season. The leading slugger on their team by far is Dan Uggla. Uggla is slugging over .650 right now. Uggla's slugging over his pro baseball career: 2001 (rookie ball)- .406 2002 (A)- .307 2003 (A)- .504 2004 (AA) -.432 2005 (AAA)- .502 2006 (MLB)- .480 2007 (MLB)- .479 His career numbers would suggest what he has done so far is a fluke. Fluke or not, his history also shows he is due for a decline as the season progresses. His month-by-month slugging in 2007: May- .614 June- .500 July- .465 August- .434 September- .418 Next in line in Slugging on Miami, Mike Jacobs, has a slugging % .100+ higher than any year he has had in his career. Jorge Cantu had a sub .400 slugging % from ages 20-22 in the Minor Leagues (each season). Of course, Cantu drove in 117 RBIs in 2005, but he returned to his Minor League form the following 2 years. In 2006, Cantu posted a .404 SLG. In 2007, Cantu slugged a .357. This season, Cantu is slugging .489. His numbers in 5 of the past 6 years would indicate Cantu is overacheiving by about .100 slugging points. Hanley Ramirez is a stud; we all know that. Outside of him, the rest of the Marlins' lineup has either a low slugging or a mediocre but we know what we will get out of him for the rest of the season (i.e.: Luis Gonzales). The Marlins also have the worst Defensive Efficiency out of the 16 best records in Baseball. The Devil Rays have the best Defensive Efficiency in the MLB as of the moment, and show no reason that will come to an end. Most of the Devil Rays' players have been good Defenders throughout their career and have shown consistency in the field. Tampa Bay's Pitching is far better than Miami's. The Devil Ray's VORP is an overwhelming 60+ points better than Miami's. That means not even taking into account the significant difference between the 2 squads in Defense, the Devil Rays pitching is too good to even compare to the Marlins. The difference is fielding and pitching- undisputedly 2 of the most important facets in Baseball- is insurmountable between the 2 clubs. While the Marlins do have a slightly better offense as of now, statistics would indicate they are deceiving, as is their record. Tampa Bay should be better offensively at the end of the year too. This question will look downright silly at the end of the season. The numbers prove the Devil Rays are legitimate World Series contenders, while they say the Marlins are pretenders. The Devil Rays will win at least 90 games this season and make the Playoffs. Tampa Bay is one of the favorites in the American League, and it should not be a surprise to anyone that has watched this team this season to see them play in the 2008 World Series. The Marlins are still a year away from that stage. The Marlins will finish the season with 75-79 wins, about 12-15 games worse than Tampa Bay. Yikes! Edited by CHILL, Sun Jun 8, 2008 4:47 am.
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| CHILL | Sun Jun 8, 2008 5:20 am Post #42 |
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#2: If you could sign one pitcher and one batter under the age of 22 to start a franchise with, who would you choose and why? The best pitcher under the age of 23 in Major League Baseball to set as the foundation to anchor a rotation is Felix Hernandez. Felix definitely has stuff to work on both physically and mentally, but he still remains the most equipped the be Baseball's most dominant pitcher 5 years from now. Felix's flaws are nothing fatal. And every young pitcher has flaws. Felix's fastball is probably not one of his two "best" pitches (really, considering how good his slider and changeup is, that is not a problem). Anyways, Felix tends to use his Fastball on the 1st and 2nd Pitch a lot. His fastball is one of his more hittable pitches, and he tends to float it once in awhile. Compound that with the fact it is usually easier to guess when he will throw his Fastball. Felix needs to gain more control with his fastball, which I think it is a given he will. As he progresses in his career, I suspect he will throw his offspeed stuff earlier in the count. Jose Contreras had the exact same problem Felix has, and once he started with the offspeed stuff first, that was when he became a dominant pitcher through a 12-month period. Felix's other problem is mental immaturity on the mound. It is a problem every young pitcher deals with at least once. If Felix throws a very nice pitch and it gets hacked, he will sometimes get frustrated. He will also start to panic sometimes once the other team hits his fastball consecutive times. Felix has a large variety of pitches (I think 4), and 2 could be considered among the best in Baseball. Felix's best pitch is his Slider that he uses to get batters out late in the count. The ball will "spike" more sharply and a little later than most sliders will. He also has the ability to throw this pitch near 90 MPH. Felix employs a changeup that most pitchers could use as their outpitch. Felix has actually been criticized for not using this pitch enough, or using it at the wrong times. Felix has an upper 90s fastball with movement that is similar to Carlos Zambrano's. Felix needs to do the following: 1. Keep his fastball down low 2. Employ better, less predictable pitch sequences Once Felix accomplishes this and mental maturity, he will breakout into one of the game's best pitchers. He also presents the intimidation factor on the mound, so don't be surprised if he draws similarities to Pedro Martinez once he puts it together. Jay Bruce is the best option to cornerstone a franchise given those qualifications. Nothing in the minor leauges indicates Bruce is a pretender; he raked his way all through the system. Since being called up, Bruce has been one of the biggest impact players in Baseball. He's shown it all. He's shown he can slug, drive in runs, and he has also shown plate discipline. Bruce will be the Reds' 2nd best hitters of the next generation- only to "The Next Big Thing" Joey Votto. |
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| CHILL | Sun Jun 8, 2008 5:35 am Post #43 |
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#3: The Cincinnati Reds last winter traded Josh Hamilton (AL POTM April & May, MLB Leader in RBI's) to the Texas Rangers for Edinson Volquez (7-2 Record, MLB Leader in K's & ERA) Both teams are near .500, Texas 29-29 and Cincy 28-29. So, who won or in the long run will win the trade? The Reds won this trade- no contest. Hamiton is a solid Outfielder, but his value is far less than that of Edinson Volquez. Hamilton is a nice player, but also the type you can replace anywhere- and not give up an ace for. Here are Hamilton's splits: Home: .726 SLG% Road: .496 SLG% Hamilton's home numbers are great, and he should be commended for that. It is also safe to say that will not keep up and reduce by about .120. Slugging .726 for a season is just not realistic. His road stats are above average- and just that. Edinson Volquez is the real deal. He has a variety of pitches, a deceiving release, and movement on his pitches that make them as unhittable as it gets. There was a reason he was once ranked as the #1 Prospect for the Rangers. He just had problems adjusting to the Major League level with the Rangers. The Rangers gave up on him too early as he was just having problems many young pitchers deal with. Volquez has also proven he can go deep into games. I'll take the Ace over an above average outfielder. |
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| CHILL | Sun Jun 8, 2008 5:45 am Post #44 |
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#4: Two teams that were projected to make a run late into October, the Tigers and Yankees, have struggled to begin the season. Which one is going to come back and make a playoff run? Yankees? Tigers? Both? Neither? Why or why not? My answer would be the Cleveland Indians, but that is not a valid option. I do not think either of these 2 clubs will seriously contend for the Postseason. Neither club has the Pitching in either the Rotation or Bullpen. Each club's Pitching VORP is deeply buried in the Bottom 10 of Baseball. I don't see any alternate options with each organization either. The Yankees' Defensive Efficiency also ranks among the cellar in MLB. The Yankees have an impressive Offense, but a pure one-way team is not going to beat out more complete teams such as Tampa Bay, Boston, or Toronto. The Yankees will finish with 82-84 wins- and if Toronto's Offense picks up- will finish 4th out of 5 teams in the American League. Congratulations. The Tigers will threaten once this year because they own the most loaded Offense on paper in Baseball. They just have to wait for the Injury bug to settle. They will go on a big streak like St. Louis did last year and flirt with contention for a little while. But in the end, the Tigers will have 83-85 wins and finish behind the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Detroit has also dug themself into a far deeper hole. Edited by CHILL, Sun Jun 8, 2008 5:46 am.
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| Mariners in 2009 | Sun Jun 8, 2008 3:38 pm Post #45 |
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Bingo. And, by the way it was under the age of 22, not 23. Felix turned 22 in April.
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| Infallable | Sun Jun 8, 2008 4:45 pm Post #46 |
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I don't break character until after the DVD commentary
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Felix is starting to remind me of Ramon Ortiz :o |
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| Mariners in 2009 | Sun Jun 8, 2008 8:07 pm Post #47 |
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You got me on that one. He's having his best year yet on what's looking to be Seattle worst team in 20+ years. |
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| Infallable | Sun Jun 8, 2008 10:13 pm Post #48 |
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I don't break character until after the DVD commentary
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Well his pitch repertoire is about the same for one. He also looks completely dominant at times using all of it and then he'll have games where a couple guys get on in one inning and he completely falls apart. He's not mentally tough at all and if he starts to regress at all it'll probably lead to a total disaster. |
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| Mariners in 2009 | Sun Jun 8, 2008 10:20 pm Post #49 |
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Gotcha. Yeah, he's still pretty immature at times. It's gonna be amazing though when everything comes together. |
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