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Unconventional Wisdom:; Breaking down Chipper's chances at .400
Topic Started: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:26 pm (32 Views)
sportslover
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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/06/11/bp.chipper400/index.html?eref=T1

Oh, wait, let's get some responses:

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aCutb
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I drink your milkshake

:rotfl:

I read this article when it was posted on FF. I wondered why SI had such a great article, but then I looked it was a guy from Baseball Prospectus.
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LAL
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I don't get it... what's with the picture?

Good article though.
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sportslover
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Lakers008
Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:55 pm
I don't get it... what's with the picture?

Good article though.
Chipper's chances of hitting that certain average.

And the article is way too positive. 12% to 13% is too high. I also don't see how Chipper's talent level goes from being of a .310 hitter to being of a .360 hitter in 2 and a half months. That's BS right there.
Edited by sportslover, Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:12 pm.
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LAL
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I thought it was giving his current performance a bit too much weight, but it does make sense in theory. Your current performance is more relevant than past performance, assuming that the sample size is great enough to produce an accurate picture. They said the average for the simulation was about .378. So with that in mind along with his career average (.307 not including this year's stats), I would say he's now a .330 hitter at most. 70% weight for career average and 30% for current. That's probably still being a bit generous since his 7000+ career at-bats is a much more accurate sample than his current 200+ or 500 at-bats that he should have by the end of the season.

I don't think 12-13% is too high. 12.5% chance that he gets .400 is only 1-in-8. That sounds about right to me... if he was in this position for 8 seasons, he would only maintain a .400 avg once come season end.
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sportslover
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Lakers008
Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:20 pm
I thought it was giving his current performance a bit too much weight, but it does make sense in theory. Your current performance is more relevant than past performance, assuming that the sample size is great enough to produce an accurate picture. They said the average for the simulation was about .378. So with that in mind along with his career average (.307 not including this year's stats), I would say he's now a .330 hitter at most. 70% weight for career average and 30% for current. That's probably still being a bit generous since his 7000+ career at-bats is a much more accurate sample than his current 200+ or 500 at-bats that he should have by the end of the season.

I don't think 12-13% is too high. 12.5% chance that he gets .400 is only 1-in-8. That sounds about right to me... if he was in this position for 8 seasons, he would only maintain a .400 avg once come season end.
I guess you're right. Your true talent level does fluctuate a lot. What he was last year is not necessarily what he is this year. Just like what he is now is not what he was 10 years ago.
Edited by sportslover, Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:25 pm.
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