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Yankees Overrated
Topic Started: Tue Apr 7, 2009 1:30 am (25 Views)
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Derek Jeter - SS
Johnny Damon - LF
Mark Teixeira -1B
Hideki Matsui - DH
Jorge Posada - C
Robinson Cano - 2B
Xavier Nady - RF
Cody Ransom - 3B
Brett Gardner - CF
CC Sabathia - P

Pardon me, but I'm underwhelmed. This lineup has one star player in his prime - Teixeira. The rest are aging stars who aren't nearly as good as they used to be, or younger players who aren't that good. Obviously they'd look a lot more dangerous with A-Rod batting 4th, but right now, they are not an intimidating lineup.

(Sabathia, on the other hand, is pretty intimidating.)
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It'll be interesting to see how they deal with the almost inevitable failures at multiple positions. Posada is almost guaranteed to go down at some point. Matsui has to DH because of health issues. Nady and Damon and that guy they stuck in center just aren't very good. Cano needs to show he's not just another Juan Samuel/Ruben Sierra guy who were stars but were undermined by bad control of the strikezone.

I think they know Nick Swisher will get his 500+ PAs. They're just waiting to see which point of failure he's going to fill in for. They'll be lucky if he's the only fill-in needed. It's conceivable (probable?) that their lineup on 1 September has six or seven different names, or at least positions attached to names, than the one they field today.

I think they'll finish 3rd in the AL East, which many predicted. But many people also predicted the Yankees to be 3rd best in MLB, which I think is overrated (they're 8th-10th IMO). The Pitching is good, the hitting is good. Neither has that much star power as would lead you to believe though, I would say Rays, Red Sox, Angels, Twins, Indians, Cubs, Phillies are better.
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I wouldn't count the Yankees out quite yet. Baseball Prospectus as of today, projects 99 wins for the Yankees in 2009, which projects to the be the best record in baseball.

Baseball Prospectus projects the Yankees to score 800 runs, good for only fourth in the AL East. But BP projects the Yankees to allow only 635 runs, which projects to the be lowest runs allowed in baseball by a good margin. The second lowest team in terms of runs allowed, the Dodgers, are projected to allowed 710 runs, 65 more than the Yankees. That's how good BP sees the Yankees pitching staff.

So one of the most reliable sources sees the Yankees pitching staff carrying them completely (although if the Pitching is what it was today, that won't happen, obviously).
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This team's defense is even worst than their offense. I don't see how the Yanks can allow only 635 runs.
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Jeter, Posada, Damon and Matsui are all already declining IMO. The real problem will be if A-Rod goes into decline. They owe him $246 mm over the next 9 years and he is turning 34 this year and coming off surgery. I'm sure he'll be very good for several more years, but if he's not "A-Rod good" (career OPS of .967 to date) they are really going to be hurting on that deal.
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