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Colts seeking improvement from within
Topic Started: Feb 25 2014, 04:26 PM (773 Views)
TheDodo
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Pro Bowl'er
errsay
Mar 2 2014, 04:48 PM
Here's why people need to check facts:

Greg Toler: 48 career games...6 int's and 27 passes defended during those 4 years.

Jerraud Powers: 58 career games...7 int's and 51 passes defended in his 5 years.

Darrius Butler: 25 career starts...11 career int's and 43 passes defended.

Cassius Vaughn: 18 career starts...5 int's and 19 passes defended.


Last year:(2013)

Powers had 1 int and 18 pd's

Butler had 4 int's and 15 pd's

Vaughn had 3 int's and 6 pd's in 4 games. FOUR
Bent20
Mar 2 2014, 01:17 PM
He also had seven passes defended. Which is pretty good given how little he played. Other teams tried to pick on him on occasion and when he was healthy they weren't nearly as successful as they were against Powers the season before and Butler and Vaughn.
Comparing Toler to Powers is a legit matchup, but comparing Toler to Butler and Vaughn is comical...considering that they're situational players that have been backups in their careers. Toler is getting paid like a starting #2 C.B. not a fringe player.
Those numbers are meaningless if you don't include targets. If the QB only throws in his direction 33 times Toler is doing a damn good job. Obviously that isn't the case, but stats don't tell you a whole lot without context, and these stats have no context.
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Posted ImageBent20
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errsay
Mar 2 2014, 04:48 PM
Here's why people need to check facts:

Greg Toler: 48 career games...6 int's and 27 passes defended during those 4 years.

Jerraud Powers: 58 career games...7 int's and 51 passes defended in his 5 years.

Darrius Butler: 25 career starts...11 career int's and 43 passes defended.

Cassius Vaughn: 18 career starts...5 int's and 19 passes defended.


Last year:(2013)

Powers had 1 int and 18 pd's

Butler had 4 int's and 15 pd's

Vaughn had 3 int's and 6 pd's in 4 games. FOUR
Bent20
Mar 2 2014, 01:17 PM
He also had seven passes defended. Which is pretty good given how little he played. Other teams tried to pick on him on occasion and when he was healthy they weren't nearly as successful as they were against Powers the season before and Butler and Vaughn.
Comparing Toler to Powers is a legit matchup, but comparing Toler to Butler and Vaughn is comical...considering that they're situational players that have been backups in their careers. Toler is getting paid like a starting #2 C.B. not a fringe player.
Toler is superior in man coverage, or at least was when healthy.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
That is strictly opinion, based on twisted facts and the need to defend a weak argument. I suppose that the oppostion was avoiding Toler and going after Vontae Davis. Right? Think before you type. Both of you.
Edited by errsay, Mar 2 2014, 05:57 PM.
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Posted ImageBent20
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No, I would say they were targeting Toler more and he held up pretty well before getting hurt.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
Sure he did...
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IronPony1965
Pro Bowl'er
I think Toler played decently his first few games, but once he got hurt and tried to come back, he looked awful.

Also, the point made about stats being made in context is a legit one. Im not arguing either way, as I believe Toler WILL be our starting corner this coming year so i see no point in arguing about it.
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TheDodo
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errsay
Mar 2 2014, 05:27 PM
That is strictly opinion, based on twisted facts and the need to defend a weak argument. I suppose that the oppostion was avoiding Toler and going after Vontae Davis. Right? Think before you type. Both of you.
My point was neutral to either side of the argument. Take for example Cato June. He racked up the tackles left and right, but that was mostly just because teams always ran at him not because he was that good. Simple stats like tackles, deflections, and interceptions can often be easily skewed towards those with a greater opportunity to achieve such stats. Another example would be Reggie Miller being one of the all-time leading rebounder for the Pacers. Reggie was never a great rebounder, but because he had more opportunities to get a rebound than any other Pacer ever he was able to rack up those total numbers.

You can't just quote me some cumulative simple stats like deflections, and expect me to accept or even understand what they mean without providing context. In this case that context would be the ratio of deflections/interceptions to targets.

With a DB, the odds are, the less he shows up on the stat sheet the better he and/or the players around him are playing. There are exceptions, like a CB that consistently gets beat, but they are exceptions not the rule.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
I wasn't the poster who initiated a stats-based stance. Bent mentioned the stats, and I jumped all over it. Then it was "targets". Now it's stats are for losers. How about the "eyeball" test? If anyone thinks that Toler is a good player, fine with me. I don't. I don't come here to win hearts and minds, nor to argue or insist. Sorry if it can seem that way at times. I enjoy engaging in discussion with other passionate fans. It wouldn't be much of a forum or world for that matter, if everyone held the same beliefs or opinions.

And yes, I agree that Toler will be the starting LCB for at least another season. Yipee.
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TheDodo
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I never said stats were for losers. I was trying to get you to finish your argument, because as it stands it is incomplete. No valid opinion can be taken from it without some added elements. All I was asking for was a simple stat that is necessary to form a solid conclusion from the other stats you posted. Your refusal either shows that the context isn't in your favor, or you don't understand what I am saying.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
I provided a glut of RELEVANT stats. Alot more than was provided. You provided a baseless opinion based on ??? I don't get this "incomplete" comment at all. What further "elements" are necessary? I pummeled Bent's paper tiger position, and your's is even more baffling. I also pissed on the laughable notion that teams were "avoiding" Toler's side. I guess that may actually be half true, as it's hard to find someone in street clothes. Do you also realize that he's missed 16 games in 4 years? That's a whole season out of 4. He's also been described in a scouting report as a: "Solid backup type". This is the guy you're both "bent" on defending.

Finally...there's no stat for "opinions". And you're right about one thing: most times I really DON'T get what you're posting about. What can I tell ya'?
Edited by errsay, Mar 3 2014, 02:36 PM.
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Posted ImageBent20
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I mentioned he had 7 pass defenses to go along with his interception. He made some nice plays and WHEN HEALTHY (think I've said that a dozen times) looked like he could be a quality corner. Can he stay healthy, or ever be healthy again? That to me is the bigger question, but I suspect the Colts will wait another year to find out. We're not going to cut every, or even half, of the free agents we signed last year. I think we all understand that.
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TheDodo
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errsay
Mar 3 2014, 02:29 PM
I provided a glut of RELEVANT stats. Alot more than was provided. You provided a baseless opinion based on ??? I don't get this "incomplete" comment at all. What further "elements" are necessary? I pummeled Bent's paper tiger position, and your's is even more baffling. I also pissed on the laughable notion that teams were "avoiding" Toler's side. I guess that may actually be half true, as it's hard to find someone in street clothes. Do you also realize that he's missed 16 games in 4 years? That's a whole season out of 4. He's also been described in a scouting report as a: "Solid backup type". This is the guy you're both "bent" on defending.

Finally...there's no stat for "opinions". And you're right about one thing: most times I really DON'T get what you're posting about. What can I tell ya'?
What is so hard to understand about statistics being meaningless without context? A simple count of how many INTs a player has isn't very useful in and of itself. What is useful is how many INTs per 100 targets. Two players can have the same amount of INTs in a season and deflections, but not be equally good. One player could get an INT 5% of the time and a deflection 50% of the time, while the other with the same stat gets an INT 2% of the time and a deflection 25% of the time. When you are being targeted 100 times it is much more easy to match or exceed someone who is targeted 50 times. So the question becomes why? Why is that player targeted more? Why does that player have more INTs and deflections? You never answered that question. You simply quoted how many INTs and deflections.

Why is it so hard to wrap you brain around this simple concept?


I'm not trying to say teams are avoiding Toler, I only used that as an example as to why the stats you posted were not providing a complete story in which an accurate opinion could be derived. I'm not even trying to argue that Toler is better than Powers. All I am saying is I can't make a conclusion based on the stats you provided. Those stats only tell me half the story. They do not answer the question of why.



If you want to know my opinion here it is. Toler is a decent 2nd CB who you can't trust to be healthy, but when he is healthy is solid. He is a bit of a risk taker which occasionally ends in him being beat, but other times ends in him making a good play. You don't want him to be your first CB, but if you have some solid depth he will be a good 2nd CB. That is what I saw last season. I'm honestly wouldn't care one bit if we replaced him, but at the same time I hate seeing a player receiving undeserved hate. I am only defending him, because you are undervaluing what he brought when he was healthy.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
Bent20
Mar 3 2014, 02:58 PM
I mentioned he had 7 pass defenses to go along with his interception. He made some nice plays and WHEN HEALTHY (think I've said that a dozen times) looked like he could be a quality corner. Can he stay healthy, or ever be healthy again? That to me is the bigger question, but I suspect the Colts will wait another year to find out. We're not going to cut every, or even half, of the free agents we signed last year. I think we all understand that.
I know what you said. I can read too. When I countered YOUR stats with MINE, you mentioned TARGETS. I countered with the laughable notion that he was being avioded, in lieu of Davis or Butler or even Vaughn...by PROVIDING those same STATS. Now we're back to opinions and medical history. Next...
TheDodo
Mar 3 2014, 03:46 PM
errsay
Mar 3 2014, 02:29 PM
I provided a glut of RELEVANT stats. Alot more than was provided. You provided a baseless opinion based on ??? I don't get this "incomplete" comment at all. What further "elements" are necessary? I pummeled Bent's paper tiger position, and your's is even more baffling. I also pissed on the laughable notion that teams were "avoiding" Toler's side. I guess that may actually be half true, as it's hard to find someone in street clothes. Do you also realize that he's missed 16 games in 4 years? That's a whole season out of 4. He's also been described in a scouting report as a: "Solid backup type". This is the guy you're both "bent" on defending.

Finally...there's no stat for "opinions". And you're right about one thing: most times I really DON'T get what you're posting about. What can I tell ya'?
What is so hard to understand about statistics being meaningless without context? A simple count of how many INTs a player has isn't very useful in and of itself. What is useful is how many INTs per 100 targets. Two players can have the same amount of INTs in a season and deflections, but not be equally good. One player could get an INT 5% of the time and a deflection 50% of the time, while the other with the same stat gets an INT 2% of the time and a deflection 25% of the time. When you are being targeted 100 times it is much more easy to match or exceed someone who is targeted 50 times. So the question becomes why? Why is that player targeted more? Why does that player have more INTs and deflections? You never answered that question. You simply quoted how many INTs and deflections.

Why is it so hard to wrap you brain around this simple concept?


I'm not trying to say teams are avoiding Toler, I only used that as an example as to why the stats you posted were not providing a complete story in which an accurate opinion could be derived. I'm not even trying to argue that Toler is better than Powers. All I am saying is I can't make a conclusion based on the stats you provided. Those stats only tell me half the story. They do not answer the question of why.



If you want to know my opinion here it is. Toler is a decent 2nd CB who you can't trust to be healthy, but when he is healthy is solid. He is a bit of a risk taker which occasionally ends in him being beat, but other times ends in him making a good play. You don't want him to be your first CB, but if you have some solid depth he will be a good 2nd CB. That is what I saw last season. I'm honestly wouldn't care one bit if we replaced him, but at the same time I hate seeing a player receiving undeserved hate. I am only defending him, because you are undervaluing what he brought when he was healthy.
Wrap your brain around this: Show me that Davis or Butler were TARGETED more than Toler was. Never mind ignoring INT's and PD's for your own convenience. Deflections? LMAO. I'm sorry but we share different views on the guy. Stats, injuries eyeball test...you name it. I have no reason to feel this way, other than honesty.

Trying to find TARGETS at various sites...only applied to offensive performers. None for defenders.
Edited by errsay, Mar 3 2014, 04:51 PM.
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Posted ImageBent20
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Actually, I never brought up targets. I agreed they probably targeted Toler more. I thought he played well, made some nice plays at times and didn't start looking really bad until he got hurt. That's all. Nothing to get that worked up about.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
Dodo did. It's like people throw shit against the wall and hoping some sticks.
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