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Breaking down FA scenarios
Topic Started: Feb 28 2014, 01:00 PM (1,038 Views)
BlueKoolaid
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What are we going to do with what we're working with? There's so many possibilities, I figure we might as well try and list some, while also trying to break some things down.

We're looking at 40 million in cap space and, without projecting any possible releases, I'm gonna leave it there. Where do we start to chip away at that 40 mil? With our own FA's. And we have a lot.

First off, we've got our ERFA's and RFA's: Josh Gordy, Joe Reitz, Justin Hickman, Cam Johnson, Scott Lutrus.

Out of those 5, I think we keep everyone but Lutrus. Those 4 should cost us between 2-3 million, I'm guessing, which leaves us at around 37-38 million.

Next, our UFA's: Pat Angerer, Antoine Bethea, Ahmad Bradshaw, Deion Branch, Donald Brown, Sergio Brown, Kavell Conner, Vontae Davis, Aubrayo Franklin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jeff Linkenbach, Ricardo Mathews, Pat McAfee, Mike McGlynn, Fili Moala, Lawrence Sidbury, Cassius Vaughn, Adam Vinatieri.

This is where it starts getting tricky. Out of all those guys, I think we let everyone test the market except Vinatieri, Vaughn, McAfee and Sergio Brown. Those 4 should cost us between 6-7 million, again guessing, leaving us around 30-32 million.

This leaves us in perfect shape to resign some of our own bigger name free agents in Davis and/or Bethea. The resigning of Vaughn and Sergio will make the need to resign Davis and/or Bethea not as great, IMO, giving us more options. We can also resign some of the guys who didn't get what they wanted, at a pretty good price I'm guessing, at this time. (Though I'm in no hurry to do that with most of the rest, besides maybe Aubrayo and Donald.) What we do at this time though, and who we resign (if anyone), will greatly affect how we go about the rest of free agency. The cap hit could be anywhere from zero to possibly around 16 million, leaving us at still around 30 million all the way down to 14-16 million.

Here is where the fun starts: All the different free agent signing scenarios!

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000316567/article/2014-nfl-free-agents-position

There's a list of free agents by position. Here is a possible scenario, starting after the resigning of Vinatieri, Pat, Vaughn and Sergio, when we have around 30-32 million to work with:

Resign CB Vontae Davis at 6-7 million, leaving us at 23-26 million.
Sign FS Jairus Byrd at 8-9 million, leaving us at 14-18 million.
Sign DE Tyson Jackson at 2 million, leaving us at 12-16 million.
Sign OG Jon Asomoah at 3, leaving us at 9-13 million.

I'll leave it at that for now. Will probably add more/change it later. But I figure that's a good and simple one, addressing needs to give us freedom in the draft, and leaving a little cash for cheaper FA's.

So what scenarios do you guys see?



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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
Don't know if Grigson is blowing smoke this year about being "prudent". I admire this philosophy in general terms, but he's got a TON of options at his disposal. My experience with GM's in particular, is that they're always hesitant to admit their own mistakes i.e. He will maintain the status quo on the guys he brought in last year, and expect them along with the draft class to do the bulk of the heavy lifting. I'd be fine with this, if these players were actually any good, but they just ain't in my opine. And it's their collective resumes which lead to my beliefs.

With that said, he'll look for bargains after week 1, and lament the costs of the early signees. As for his own: Davis will be signed to a huge deal, while he will let Bethea walk.
No idea how he handles the kickers or Sergio Brown. I would love to have Byrd, but I don't have high hopes.
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BlueKoolaid
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I think he resigns the kickers if only for peace of mind...

Ok, I'm gonna break this down even more. Here is what our depth chart looks without our FA's, but with 40 million in cap space:

QB
Luck, Andrew
Hasselbeck, Matt
Harnish, Chandler

RB
Richardson, Trent
Ballard, Vick
Herron, Dan
Rainey, Chris

FB
Havili, Stanley

WR
Wayne, Reggie
Hilton, T.Y.
Brazill, LaVon
Whalen, Griff
Rogers, Da'Rick

TE
Allen, Dwayne
Fleener, Coby
Saunders, Weslye
Doyle, Jack
Webb, Martell

OT
Castonzo, Anthony
Cherilus, Gosder
Nixon, Xavier
Breckner, Jack

OG
Thomas, Donald
Thornton, Hugh
Louis, Lance
Allen, Zach
Joe Reitz (Re-signed: -1.5 mil to cap)

C
Satele, Samson (CUT: +4 mil to cap)
Holmes, Khaled
Austin, Thomas

NT
Chapman, Josh
Hughes, Montori
Pendleton, Jeris

DE
Redding, Cory
Jean Francois, Ricky

OLB
Mathis, Robert
Walden, Erik
Werner, Bjoern
Studebaker, Andy
Adongo, Daniel
Morgan, Aaron
Cam Johnson (Re-signed: -.5 mil to cap)

ILB
Freeman, Jerrell
D'Qwell Jackson (Signed: -5 mil to cap)
Sheppard, Kelvin
Harvey, Mario
McNary, Josh
Muamba, Henoc
Baxter, Alan

CB
Toler, Greg
Butler, Darius
Price, Sheldon
Burley, Marcus
Josh Gordy (Re-signed: -1.5 mil to cap)

S
Landry, LaRon
Lynch, Corey
Howell, Delano
Sims, David

K

P
Pat McAfee (Re-signed: -3 mil to cap)

LS
Overton, Matt

Note: Players in red are coming off injury.




I did that to give us a better idea of where we need to upgrade/invest and where we need to improve from within. Some positions fall in both categories.

The main positions that, IMO, don't need any more invested in them (other than UDFA or vet minimum depth) are QB and OLB. We've got enough invested in those positions. The rest either clearly need invested in AND need to improve from within or are up for debate. I think C, OG, NT, DE, ILB, CB, S, K and P clearly are in need of being invested in, whether its spending decent money on it in FA or using a draft pick. RB, FB, WR, TE, OT and LS are up for debate, but need to improve from within either way.

Edited for most recent transactions. Should have around 35.5 million in cap space right now. Let me know if that sounds right.

Edited again for Pat. Around 32.5 million in cap left.
Edited by BlueKoolaid, Mar 7 2014, 01:17 PM.
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errsay
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Good job, BK. We agree on most things Colts. Even Stevie Wonder can see how thin we are RIGHT NOW at the CB/S positions and at D.E. C/G is another obviously as discussed ad nauseum. I could live without Sheppard and Harvey. Keep an eye out for Alan Baxter, who had a monster pre-season for Pittsburgh. Not sure why they cut him from their P.S.
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DarkHorseColts
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Speaking of ILB, Donald Butler re-signed with the Bolts. So scratch him off the list of FA candidates at that position.
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cedjss
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Great job BK, yea we are very thin at DE and CB
Would love to sign all players you have but folks are saying Bryd will be tagged. We will no by Monday that is last day you can tag a player
We need no more than 4 million right now for draft
Hope we get Alex Mack, but he will cost about 7 to 8 million a year
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errsay
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Love Butler...
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cedjss
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Update on draft number
Overthe cap.com is saying we only need 500 thousand cap room to get our 4 players
I not sure about the total dollars but it was lowest in NFL
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errsay
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Please explain...
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BlueKoolaid
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Thanks, you guys. Just trying to clear some things up and hopefully give people a better understanding, myself included, on what all we're dealing with. We've been throwing out a lot of names in other threads, but haven't really shown HOW we can get who we want. And trust me, that 40 million may seem like a lot, but it's gonna go fast. Would like to see other people's possible FA lists, and explain how it can be done.
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cedjss
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errsay
Mar 1 2014, 04:49 PM
Please explain...
We currently only have 4 picks to sign.
Based on that cap space needed is only $500,000
I wish I knew how to copy and paste on this IPad
But check this site out
Www.overthecap.com
Edited by cedjss, Mar 3 2014, 10:29 AM.
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BlueKoolaid
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Here's another possible list, starting after re-signing Vinatieri, Pat, Vaughn and Sergio, with the cap around 32 mil.

LeGarrette Blount - RB - 2.5 mil - leaving 29.5 mil
Vonta Leach - FB - 1.5 mil - leaving 28 mil
Kenny Britt - WR - 1.5 mil - leaving 26.5 mil
Michael Hoomanawanui - TE - 1.5 mil - leaving 25 mil
Jon Asamoah - OG - 2.5 mil - leaving 22.5 mil
Dan Koppen - C - 2.5 mil - leaving 20 mil (drop Satele, add another 4-5 mil in cap)
Tyson Jackson - DE - 2.5 mil - leaving 17.5 mil
Arthur Jones - DE - 2.5 mil - leaving 15 mil
Jay Ratliff - DT - 2.5 mil - leaving 12.5 mil
Malcolm Jenkins - FS - 3 mil - leaving 9.5 mil
Sam Shields - CB - 4.5 mil - leaving 5 mil
Corey Graham - CB - 4 mil - leaving 1 mil (drop Toler, add another 4-5 mil in cap)

So that's a list spreading the money around a little more. Add the possible cuts of Satele and Toler and that 1 mil jumps to 10 mil, leaving plenty for play.

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errsay
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Looks like you're resigned to letting Vontae leave. I love the Shields counter, but doubt that Toler gets the axe. If we're EVER gonna build the "monster", Leach is a great place to start. Blount could be another. I like Asamoah, not sure about Koppen. Britt is a tantalizing commodity, but has been a headache. More like a migraine. I'd rather go WR in round 2 of the draft...where the VALUE should be at that spot. LOVE Jackson and Jones. Ratliff is very intriguing. I'd target Soliai, myself. Jenkins would be fine with me too.
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BlueKoolaid
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Yeah, I tried to make a list without any big contracts. Davis and his price tag would be too high for this scenario, even though the truth is Shields probably wont be much lower...

I threw Britt in there just because. There are a lot of other WR's available. Wouldn't mind getting a real vet, just to help Wayne ease himself back in. With the amount of FA WR's, the market value should be pretty low. (Haven't done my homework on the draft yet. Just focusing on what we can get in FA right now.)

Blount and Hooma are also on there to help guys ease their way back in (Vick and Allen) and also give us a little muscle, like Leach will too.

Focused on pass rushers for the defensive line. Chapman and Hughes are two guys that gotta step up and help, at least for run support. RJF will help, too.

And I'm not sure about Koppen, either, but I like his chances for a year or two over Satele's...

Again, just picking guys who allow us to spread the wealth a little. Similar to last year. Doubt we get even close to those contracts for some of these guys, though.
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errsay
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Neva know. Good job.
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Posted ImageBent20
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Regarding the secondary discussion:

Shields is said to be looking for $7M.
Jenkins is making close to $4M on his current deal.
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BlueKoolaid
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Bent20
Mar 3 2014, 03:13 PM
Regarding the secondary discussion:

Shields is said to be looking for $7M.
Jenkins is making close to $4M on his current deal.
Yeah. Wouldn't be surprised if I'm a million or 2 off on all those guys. If not more.
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errsay
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I'd give 7M to Shields before giving 10M to Davis...and I'd give 4M to Jenkins before giving 7M to Bethea.
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BlueKoolaid
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errsay
Mar 3 2014, 04:36 PM
I'd give 7M to Shields before giving 10M to Davis...and I'd give 4M to Jenkins before giving 7M to Bethea.
I would, too. And judging by the actions of our front office, or lack of, I'd be willing to say they're thinking the same thing, or something similar. Unless they join the Byrd bidding war...
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DarkHorseColts
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Looks like the Colts may really want a WR in FA?
https://twitter.com/injuryexpert/status/440576512308166656

"Tampering be damned, it sounds like the Colts are really serious about having a WR as their first signing. Would have expected OL"
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errsay
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Sounds like a vague tease. Draft is loaded at WR, so...
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Posted ImageBent20
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He follows up in the comments by saying they're said to be looking at "several" FA WRs. That, too, is interesting.
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errsay
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BlueKoolaid
Mar 3 2014, 04:57 PM
errsay
Mar 3 2014, 04:36 PM
I'd give 7M to Shields before giving 10M to Davis...and I'd give 4M to Jenkins before giving 7M to Bethea.
I would, too. And judging by the actions of our front office, or lack of, I'd be willing to say they're thinking the same thing, or something similar. Unless they join the Byrd bidding war...
No reason for Grigson not to be flexible in his thinking. He holds some trump cards for sure.
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BlueKoolaid
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Bent20
Mar 3 2014, 07:51 PM
He follows up in the comments by saying they're said to be looking at "several" FA WRs. That, too, is interesting.
What interests me is the "first signing" thing. I'd expect them to look at several. They should be looking at EVERYONE. But the "first signing' thing would seem to indicate that they're looking at the top end guys, IMO, making it a priority like that. First signing meaning they want to get them before another team gets them, meaning the player is being sought after and ain't gonna be cheap.

Who could it be?

Decker has been the main one mentioned, and will be the most expensive. After that:

Hakeem Nicks
Golden Tate
Julian Edelman
James Jones
Emmanuel Sanders

There's a bunch after that, that I honestly wouldn't mind having, but those are gonna be the first to sign and the most expensive, IMO.
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Coltny
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Wouldn't mind getting a guy like Jason Avant for a few mill/year, drafting a wr(s) and letting him and Reggie teach the young guys.

I believe that Nicks would be an absolute monster with Luck, but too expensive.

For once, let's just please get some capable monsters on the OL and DL.
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AustinColtsFan79
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Tate and Jones are the other 2 guys I keep hearing people talk about.
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Posted ImageBent20
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If we're looking for Wayne's long term replacement, I'd like to go with a bigger, faster receiver. If Rogers can develop, he'd be that guy.

Nicks and Tate could be big production receivers, but they haven't been yet. Paying them will be all about potential. Same can probably said for Sanders, but he's produced even less.

Edelman is just the latest above average guy to rack up big numbers with Brady. I'd be nervous about that production continuing unless he's paired with another elite QB. That could be Luck, but let's not overspend on a guy like that.

Jones would be a short term option, but he's 29 and nothing spectacular.
Agree with this comment on Decker:

Decker has gotten inflated numbers by playing with these players, not to mention Peyton Manning. Decker was exposed in the Super Bowl, struggling to get separation even against Seattle's second and third-best cornerbacks.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1980302-five-moves-the-indianapolis-colts-must-avoid-in-free-agency/page/3
Edited by Bent20, Mar 4 2014, 01:51 PM.
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errsay
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Jones led the NFL in TD receptions in 2012. He may not be great, but he's darn good and a Pro's Pro. He hinted at playing with Luck last night on the NFL Network show. He may in fact be a target, no pun.
Edited by errsay, Mar 4 2014, 01:56 PM.
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Coltny
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Bent20
Mar 4 2014, 01:44 PM
If we're looking for Wayne's long term replacement, I'd like to go with a bigger, faster receiver. If Rogers can develop, he'd be that guy.

Nicks and Tate could be big production receivers, but they haven't been yet. Paying them will be all about potential. Same can probably said for Sanders, but he's produced even less.

Edelman is just the latest above average guy to rack up big numbers with Brady. I'd be nervous about that production continuing unless he's paired with another elite QB. That could be Luck, but let's not overspend on a guy like that.

Jones would be a short term option, but he's 29 and nothing spectacular.
Agree with this comment on Decker:

Decker has gotten inflated numbers by playing with these players, not to mention Peyton Manning. Decker was exposed in the Super Bowl, struggling to get separation even against Seattle's second and third-best cornerbacks.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1980302-five-moves-the-indianapolis-colts-must-avoid-in-free-agency/page/3
I agree about Decker...just say no.
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BlueKoolaid
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AustinColtsFan79
Mar 4 2014, 01:43 PM
Tate and Jones are the other 2 guys I keep hearing people talk about.
I know Jones has been mentioned, but I wouldn't mind Tate at all either.

He really didn't get a chance with Seattle. Carroll might have drafted him, but he didn't want to play him all that much. Stuck in that run first system didn't help either.

Dude was a beast at ND. Always showed strong hands. Can be a #1, #2, slot, RB, etc...

If he's a target I'm all for it, the more I talk about it... Should come at a decent price, too.
Edited by BlueKoolaid, Mar 4 2014, 02:15 PM.
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