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Donte Moncrief
Topic Started: Sep 23 2014, 05:46 PM (2,043 Views)
Manitoulin
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Look out Blueblood, I'm the one with the senility. I depend on you guys to keep me straight.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
I saw Moncrief on ST's only...
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Manitoulin
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Does anyone else think Moncrief could have helped in last nights game with the Texans? I thought he might have helped instead of Fleener.
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MrCCCs
Pro Bowl'er
I thought he might of helped instead of Nicks. Fleenor ran some amazing routes last night.
Edited by MrCCCs, Oct 10 2014, 02:18 PM.
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Manitoulin
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I just thought Moncrief's speed and size would have given the Texans more problems. I didn't notice the routes Fleener ran so thanks for the info.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
He's obviously more adept at running certain routes, moreso than others. I would think that Pep calls upon him when those plays are in play.
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BlueKoolaid
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I was thinking he should have played more than Wayne...

I was worried about some of the older guys playing after a short week. Wayne and Bradshaw, really. Figured fresh/young legs would have been more valuable in last nights game. It all worked out though. And those guys did well, as usual. They're just gonna really need the extra days off now.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
The upside of the dreaded Thursday night games.
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LACOLTSFAN
Pro Bowl'er
Manitoulin
Oct 10 2014, 02:22 PM
I just thought Moncrief's speed and size would have given the Texans more problems. I didn't notice the routes Fleener ran so thanks for the info.
Fleener had a beautiful double move to get open on his TD reception.
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rccolts
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CanadianColtsFan
Sep 23 2014, 05:46 PM
...TY Hilton can be awesome, but I don't think he will ever be the #1 week in and week out WR on any team. Too inconsistent...

I am really surprised at how many fans still don't see how special TY is. A WR does not have to be 6'-4" & 230 lbs to be a #1 WR. He has a completely different skill set than a WR of that type but he is just as dangerous. Any WR that demands a double team is a legitimate #1 WR in my book.

And I just don't get the 'inconsistent' notion. Hilton has better numbers through less than 2.5 seasons than both Wayne & Harrison had in their first 3 complete seasons.

First 3 seasons for Wayne & Harrison:
RW - 1,899 yds on 144 rec's for 13.2 ypr & 11 TDs
MH - 2,478 yds on 196 rec's for 12.6 ypr & 21 TDs

Hilton thru 2.375 seasons - 2,548 yds on 172 rec's for 14.8 ypr & 13 TDs

Hilton is unlikely to match Marvins TDs through 3 seasons, but Marvin is top 10 all time in TD's. And FYI, Hiton already is a #1 WR!
Edited by rccolts, Oct 13 2014, 01:00 PM.
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errsay
Pro Bowl'er
Teams don't game plan against #2 types.
Edited by errsay, Oct 13 2014, 07:17 PM.
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IronPony1965
Pro Bowl'er
I saw a route the 49ers ran that apparently no one else does that i would like to see the Colts try out.

Crabtree was outside on the right side of the field. He ran straight downfield, cut inside, then went outside, then quickly back inside again. The DB completely lost him, it happened so fast. He ended up in the center of the field when he caught the ball. TY would be amazing at it.
Edited by IronPony1965, Oct 15 2014, 01:55 AM.
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rccolts
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Amazingly just 2 days after my initial response in this thread, the Star has an article about how good TY has been early in his career. It prompted me to do a little more research of my own. The following is the number of 100 (+) rec. yd games/games played broken down by reg. season & post season for MH, RW & TY.

-TY Hilton has 12 out of 37 reg. season games & 2 out of 3 post season games

-Reggie Wayne has 43 out of 202 reg. season games & 3 out of 18 post season games

-Marvin Harrison has 59 out of 198 reg. season games & 1 out of 16 post season games.

So, a close look at this numbers reveals that MH averaged 100(+) rec yds in 1/3.4 reg. season games played, RW has averaged 1/4.7 & TY has averaged 1/3.1.

Furthermore, MH had 4 100(+) yd games out of 48 played in his first three reg. seasons for an average of 1/12, RW had 5 out of 45 in his first 3 seasons for an average of 1/9, & TY has had 12 out of 37 for an average of 1/3.1 so far.

And lastly, the post season numbers speak for themselves.

If this is being inconsistent, then I sure hope that Moncrief becomes just as inconsistent as TY :deal:
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TheDodo
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He is on pace for 106 receptions, 1610 yards, and is catching 67.8% of targets. His TDs are low though, only on pace for 2.6 TDs. Although, as long as the team is scoring TDs alright I'm not to worried about him having low TD numbers.
Edited by TheDodo, Oct 15 2014, 02:15 PM.
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AustinColtsFan79
Pro Bowl'er
Look, I love TY. I really hope he becomes a dominant receiver and ultimately passes Reggie and Marvin on all of the club receiving lists before his career is over. I do. But you are mistaking his amazing potential for consistent performance. Comparing TY against year 1 and 2 Marvin and Reggie doesn't prove that he is a dominant number 1 receiver NOW, it proves that he has the same potential they did THEN. Marvin and Reggie both made their big leap in year 4.

TY has opened this season like a beast. When he gets going, he seems outright uncoverable. But number 1 receivers are guys who year in and year out see double coverage and still give you somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 catches, 1200 yards, and double digit touchdowns all while managing to somehow stay healthy in a league where everyone on the field is trying to kill them. I hope TY becomes one of those guys. He seems to just keep getting better and better. But he hasn't proven it yet. Time will tell.

And the reason it's hard for small, fast receivers to dominate is because you can help to neutralize speed with bracket coverage. There is no scheme to neutralize big, strong receivers except having big, strong corners. Small, fast receivers have to do it with precision route running and really good hands. Those guys certainly can flourish, as we all know by watching years of Marvin, it's just harder. They also tend to decline faster at the end of their careers as the quickness fades and they don't have size and body/position control to fall back on.
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rccolts
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AustinColtsFan79
Oct 15 2014, 03:22 PM
...you are mistaking his amazing potential for consistent performance...
No, no I'm not.

I have presented evidence that he has been very consistent over the first 2.5 years of his career. So much so that it is even better than the consistency that both Marvin & Reggie have exhibited throughout their exemplary careers. Of coarse this does not prove that he will be able to sustain that consistency for decade, only a decade of time will tell that story, but you and others have suggested that TY has been inconsistent, an idea which the evidence completely disputes.

When you add all games together (reg. & post season) TY has had 14 games of 100(+) rec yds in just 39 games - that is an average of one 100(+) yd game for every 2.8 games he has played. In comparison, when all games are added MH had 60 games of 100(+) rec. yds in 214 games - an average of 1/3.6 & Reggie has 46 games of 100(+) rec yds in 220 games - an average of 1/4.8.

Will he put together a career that rivals Marvins & Reggies? I don't know, but I do know he has certainly shown the potential to do so. And when I read fans such as yourself making statements that doubt his ability to be a #1 WR, I feel compelled to express my opinion to the contrary.
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AustinColtsFan79
Pro Bowl'er
The first 3 games of this season he averaged 5 catches a game for 60 yards. The last 3 games of this season he averaged 8 catches a game for 140 yards.

He had 5 games last season where he had over a 120 yards, which is really impressive for a 2nd year receiver. He also had 10 games where he had 52 yards or less. He literally had ONE game where he wasn't either 50 or less or 120 or more last year.

Again, I love the guy and you make it sound like I hate him. When he's good, he's out of this world. Other times he's average. That's just the reality to this point.
Edited by AustinColtsFan79, Oct 15 2014, 04:51 PM.
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TheDodo
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In 2007 Reggie had 6 games where he had 115+ yards and 7 games where he had 70 or less yards. In 2010 he had a three game period where he averaged 47 yards. You can find similar occurrences from Marvin in his prime years and Andre Johnson too.

This variance in yards from game to game I think is pretty normal for most WRs.
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rccolts
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TheDodo
Oct 15 2014, 04:54 PM
In 2007 Reggie had 6 games where he had 115+ yards and 7 games where he had 70 or less yards. In 2010 he had a three game period where he averaged 47 yards. You can find similar occurrences from Marvin in his prime years and Andre Johnson too.

This variance in yards from game to game I think is pretty normal for most WRs.
Exactly!
AustinColtsFan79
Oct 15 2014, 04:43 PM
The first 3 games of this season he averaged 5 catches a game for 60 yards. The last 3 games of this season he averaged 8 catches a game for 140 yards...
5 catches & 60 yds a game = 80 catches for 960 yards a season

8 catches & 140 yds a game = 128 catches for 2,240 yards a season

The first stat line may not be Pro-bowl numbers but it is arguably #1 WR numbers. The second stat line is MVP type numbers. And since he most definitely will fall somewhere in between those, I think it will reflect quite well on TY's ability as a #1 WR.

You may look at those numbers & see inconsistency, but I am betting that any team in the NFL would love to have a WR with that kind of inconsistency.
AustinColtsFan79
Oct 15 2014, 04:43 PM
...He had 5 games last season where he had over a 120 yards, which is really impressive for a 2nd year receiver. He also had 10 games where he had 52 yards or less. He literally had ONE game where he wasn't either 50 or less or 120 or more last year...
And he had 82 catches for 1,083 yards for the regular season in which he did not even become a starter until after Reggie went down. Yet those numbers were good enough for him to be 19th in catches & 18th in yards. Since there are 32 teams in the NFL, in my book those are #1 WR numbers.
Edited by rccolts, Oct 15 2014, 06:34 PM.
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AustinColtsFan79
Pro Bowl'er
Having a couple bad games is totally normal. What we were talking about was consistency. To be more consistent, you would have more of your games closest to the middle of your distribution curve. If our curve goes from 0 to 150ish, that would put most of your games in the 50 to 100 yard range. Then you'd have a couple outliers on either side, your really good games and your not so good games. TY's games from last season exist almost solely on either side of that curve. He was a feast or famine guy. You can call him explosive, talented, dynamic, a playmaker, and on and on and I won't argue a bit. But he hasn't been consistent yet.

And as for his numbers last year, I thought he had a great second season. They put him statistically in the neighborhood of Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, and Julian Edelman. Are those guys what you consider number 1 guys? I think maybe we are just working off a different definition here. I think TY is very good. I think if you put him on a number of teams he'd be the best receiver on the team. Hell, I think he's probably the best receiver on our team. But he's not in the top tier of receivers yet and it's because he hasn't been consistent on a week in, week out basis.

Honestly, if he keep playing like he's been playing so far this season, this whole conversation will be moot. And he will have done it a year sooner than either Marvin or Reggie. I'm hoping he does.
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TheDodo
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AustinColtsFan79
Oct 15 2014, 07:49 PM
To be more consistent, you would have more of your games closest to the middle of your distribution curve. If our curve goes from 0 to 150ish, that would put most of your games in the 50 to 100 yard range. Then you'd have a couple outliers on either side, your really good games and your not so good games.
But that was my point, the trend I am seeing is that the distribution doesn't tend to follow the typical bell curve.
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IronPony1965
Pro Bowl'er
Those of you saying TY isnt putting up numbers consistently enough need to realize where hes playing. Look at the weapons Luck has. He can literally throw to ANY guy on the field at any given time and have faith in it. I challenge anyone to find a team that has this many capable weapons other than Denver.

Just because TY doesnt light it up for 10 catches and 100 yards every game doesnt mean hes inconsistent. At all. The fact hes even capable of dropping 200+ yards on someone with this much competition for the ball should raise a few eyebrows. He is a beast and will assume Reggies role when Reggie is ready to hang it up.

And ya, I hope Moncrief is this inconsistent has a number 2 receiver in the future when TY is number 1.
Edited by IronPony1965, Oct 16 2014, 01:48 AM.
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rccolts
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AustinColtsFan79
Oct 15 2014, 07:49 PM
...And as for his numbers last year, I thought he had a great second season. They put him statistically in the neighborhood of Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, and Julian Edelman. Are those guys what you consider number 1 guys?...
Yes, I would consider Torrey Smith a #1 WR & Kendall Wright is off to a very similar start to his career as TY. And are you really going to compare Harry Douglas & Julian Edleman to TY? Both of them are in their 6th season while TY is in his 3rd, yet he already has similar or better numbers than both of them in most every meaningful category.

Career Stats:
Julian Edleman (6th yr) - 2,179 yds on 214 rec's & 11 TD's
Harry Douglas (6th yr) - 2,695 yds on 219 rec's & 7 TD's
TY Hilton (3rd yr) - 2,548 yds on 172 rec's & 13 TD's


Furthermore, TY's numbers from last year also statistically put him in the neighborhood with Brian Hartline & Anquan Bolden, & above Colston, Cruz, Wallace, & Fitzgerald. And I would consider all of those #1 guys.

Obviously we have different ideas of what being a consistent WR is, but all you have to do is look at TY's production. You don't put up the kind of numbers he has in less than 2.5 years by being inconsistent. We also have different idea of what a #1 WR is. From the points you have made throughout this thread, a player must put together a HOF career to be considered a #1 WR. I contend that if a player is the best WR on his team then he is a #1 WR.
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BlueKoolaid
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I really don't want to get into this, but.... How well has TY been doing in run blocking this year? Serious question. I haven't really been paying attention, or just haven't seen him out there for them.

There's a reason we've gotten guys like DHB and Nicks starting across from Wayne. If it's because TY is considered a liability in the run game, it really doesn't help his position as a #1 WR.

The dude is a stud. He can be leaned on in the passing game and is a big play waiting to happen. But he does have a "very particular set of skills", IMO. That's why I view him as a 1A WR. He's good. Damn good. But if you want to take advantage of those skills, and have a well rounded team, you want a 1B WR to complement him. The jump ball type. The possession type. The physical/blocking type. If you look at our weapons, there is no guy that has everything. Allen might be the closest, Bradshaw too in the back field... But if you look around, there are guys complementing each other all over the field. It's really nice to have and I think it's clearly why Luck is doing so good. We have an answer for everything. TY covers quite a few of them, but not all... AND THAT IS JUST FINE.
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AustinColtsFan79
Pro Bowl'er
Yeah, I think we have different definitions of a #1 receiver based on that list. None of those guys, except maybe Cruz, are #1s in my mind at this point in their careers. Fitzgerald was, but isn't anymore. Colston is right on the cusp a lot of the time, but he's always felt like a system guy to me, the kind you put on a different team and he fades away.

And you put up exactly the kind of numbers he's put up by being inconsistent. It's precisely where having 5 games near 150 yards puts you. He's a boom or bust guy right now. Over the next couple years, I think we're going to watch him blossom into a dominant receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up a string of 100 catch/1500 yard seasons. We might even be watching it start right now, this very season. He's got the potential to be that guy. He's just hasn't been yet to this point in his career, but he's young and constantly getting better. His numbers this year have been much more consistent than the last couple years. He's trending in the right direction. He's just got to keep doing what he's doing for another 10 weeks. And then, hopefully, another 10 years.
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Manitoulin
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If TY goes deep on running plays and he is double covered, we then have 10 on 9. Doesn't that help the running game even if he blocks no one?
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BlueKoolaid
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Manitoulin
Oct 16 2014, 12:15 PM
If TY goes deep on running plays and he is double covered, we then have 10 on 9. Doesn't that help the running game even if he blocks no one?
It might... for a second or two, which might be all we need... But it still doesn't answer my question on how well he's been doing at run blocking.

Gotta be able to run block at least a little. Otherwise it could just as easily be 11 on 10 in the defense's favor...

Has anyone been paying attention to TY in his blocking this year? I thought I saw him have at least one nice block, but it might have been someone else.
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rccolts
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BlueKoolaid
Oct 16 2014, 10:54 AM
...There's a reason we've gotten guys like DHB and Nicks starting across from Wayne...
The starters this year have been Wayne & Hilton, Nicks is #3. I was one that complained about DHB starting in front of Hilton last year & the coaches explanation (basically) was the run blocking but I thought that it was clearly a mistake. The coaches have come around to my thinking this year however. A WR with Hiltons ability needs to be on the field as much as possible.

I can not answer your question regarding Hiltons blocking, but his down field threat does more for the running game than any WR blocking could ever do (IMO). It then becomes Lucks & Hiltons responsibility to make a defense pay if they bring the safties into the box.
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BlueKoolaid
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rccolts
Oct 16 2014, 01:15 PM
The coaches have come around to my thinking this year however.
Or Hilton has gotten better at run blocking... He did get the experience when Wayne went down last year. Because if he is out there on run downs it is expected out of him to block too, not just distract.

I thought Nicks has been out there quite a bit on run downs. They might all be rotating on run downs. That would make sense and keep the defense honest... Something to look out for.

Now that I think about it, has Wayne been sitting on run downs. Seems like the only time I see him is 3rd down...
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TheDodo
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AustinColtsFan79
Oct 16 2014, 11:03 AM
It's precisely where having 5 games near 150 yards puts you. He's a boom or bust guy right now.
Austin I just told you you find the same pattern in Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Andre Johnson in their prime years, who I at least consider to be three of the best 5 WRs in the past 15 years. It seems that is typical of number 1 receivers. Compared to all other positions there are more variables that have to align just right for a WR to succeed. More so than any other position they are highly dependent on the rest of the team doing their jobs, and on the defensive schemes employed. If a defense willingly gives up a little in one area to help prevent the star WR from beating them, most smart offenses will take what the defense gives them. Or maybe the #2 WR is going up against just a terrible DB and has a field day. In those cases it doesn't matter how well the #1 WR runs his routes or gets open if there is another easier option it is going to result in lower statistical totals even though empirically they aren't finding it any harder to get open and catch the balls that are thrown their way.
Edited by TheDodo, Oct 16 2014, 03:08 PM.
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