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| Donte Moncrief | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Sep 23 2014, 05:46 PM (2,042 Views) | |
| errsay | Oct 16 2014, 04:02 PM Post #61 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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If we had a solid group of interior O-Linemen, this offense would be virtually unstoppable. T.Y. Does in fact aid in the running game as pointed out. He also helps the other WR's and TE's, making things easier for them to do their job. If we did have a solid interior group, the running game would really take off and the play action would be incredible. |
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| TheDodo | Oct 16 2014, 04:27 PM Post #62 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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Ok here is some cold hard facts. I used statistics from Harrison, Wayne, A. Johnson, Owens, and Hilton. I removed any season with fewer than 14 games to avoid statistical anomalies brought on from sample size. The following is the average and median standard deviation over the course of their careers. From Wikipedia
Name: Average - Median Owens: 44.55 - 47.649 A. Johnson: 48.458 - 47.238 Wayne: 39.835 - 41.166 Harrison:39.79 - 42.443 Hilton: 44.828 - 44.828 Perception is often not reality. |
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| AustinColtsFan79 | Oct 16 2014, 06:25 PM Post #63 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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I know that there is a lot of variation in yardage from week to week. My point is this. In his rookie season, TY had 15 games. 9 of them he had 50 yards or less, 1 of them he had 78, and 5 of them he went for 100 or more. In his second season he played 16 games. 10 of them went for 52 or less, 5 of them went for 120 or more, and 1 of them was for 78. In the years where those receivers were dominant #1 guys, did you ever see them have 9 or 10 games of 50 yards or less? I think once we see TY get to the point where he has 4 to 6 of those games a year instead of 10, he's going to start going to pro bowls. That's all I'm saying. |
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| Gary1888 | Oct 16 2014, 06:30 PM Post #64 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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Barring injury, we'll find out soon enough if NFL talent evaluators think TY is a #1 receiver or not. He won't be playing under his rookie contract forever. |
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| TheDodo | Oct 16 2014, 07:25 PM Post #65 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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So basically you point isn't that he isn't consistent, only that to this point he hasn't been good enough to be a pro bowler? Well yes, I don't think anyone said he should have been. BTW through 6 games he only has one game below 50 yards, which puts him on pace for 2.6 games under 50 yards this season. |
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| AustinColtsFan79 | Oct 16 2014, 08:01 PM Post #66 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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My point is that if he were more consistent, he'd be a pro bowler. My whole point is this whole time has been that if he were a little more consistent over the course of a season, he'd go from really good to great. I'm not really sure why that's so inflammatory, but so be it. |
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| TheDodo | Oct 16 2014, 10:22 PM Post #67 |
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Pro Bowl'er
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But I just showed you that consistency has not been a problem. His consistency is on par with other pro bowlers, the reason why he wasn't a pro bowler last year was because his average was about 10 yards per game lower than those pro bowlers. That standard deviation stat I showed you was a stat detailing how consistent he is. The more consistent a player is the smaller that number is, the greater that number the less consistent he is. He doesn't need to be more consistent to become a pro bowler, he needs to take about a 10 yards per game jump in his average.
Edited by TheDodo, Oct 16 2014, 10:22 PM.
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| rccolts | Oct 17 2014, 08:23 AM Post #68 |
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Earlier you told me that comparing TYs first few seasons with other pro-bowl WRs first few seasons proved nothing except his potential, yet now you want to compare TYs 2nd season in the league with other pro-bowl WRs in their prime. What does that prove besides the fact that TY wasn't as good in his second year as future HOF WRs were in their prime? In your first post of this thread you suggested that TY was not a #1 type WR & that Moncrief had more upside. I hope you are right about Moncrief, but I truly believe you are wrong about TY - that is only my opinion but I believe he has shown plenty of evidence to support my opinion in his short career. I would like to see the list of WRs who became a pro-bowler in their first two seasons. I'm betting it would be a very short list. My point this entire thread has been that TY has been amazing early in his career & that he has been much more consistent than you & others are giving him credit for. 12 100(+) yd games out of 37 (& 14 out of 40 including the playoffs) stacks up well with the career stats of even future HOF WRs Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne. If that is not consistent enough for you then I strongly believe you have unrealistic expectations. Edited by rccolts, Oct 17 2014, 08:36 AM.
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| BlueKoolaid | Oct 17 2014, 09:49 AM Post #69 |
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This argument is cracking me up. Debating on whether TY is very very good or great. I guess it's a good problem to have, even though I wouldn't consider it a problem at all... You guys keep pointing to TY's 100 yard games, but it really doesn't make sense in Austin's argument, IMO. TY is a big play waiting to happen. This is something we all know. It's kind of TY's thing. It only takes one big play a game though to get 100 yards, with a couple catches here and there. What about his ability to move the chains? How much is a relied upon on 3rd downs compared to other studs being mentioned? Sometimes making those crucial 10 yard catches in the 4th quarter are more important than the 50 yarder early in the game. I'm not saying TY can't be that guy, cause he's already becoming it IMO, but Wayne kinda has that role right now. I think that's why they complement each other so well at this point in their careers. I'm just saying one big play here and there every few games to get over 100 yards should not be viewed as incredibly consistent. That was the case his first 2 years, though. Not this year. |
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| rccolts | Oct 17 2014, 10:43 AM Post #70 |
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These are the comments that provoked my response. People doubting TY's potential to be a #1 WR - I disagree strongly & believe he has been more consistent (especially this year) than they are giving him credit for. Edited by rccolts, Oct 17 2014, 10:47 AM.
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| BlueKoolaid | Oct 17 2014, 11:16 AM Post #71 |
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[/quote]These are the comments that provoked my response. People doubting TY's potential to be a #1 WR - I disagree strongly & believe he has been more consistent (especially this year) than they are giving him credit for.[/quote] I'm guessing the career 223 yard game TY had, the day before your first post in this thread, helped to motivate you a little bit too... Edited by BlueKoolaid, Oct 17 2014, 11:18 AM.
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| rccolts | Oct 17 2014, 12:11 PM Post #72 |
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These are the comments that provoked my response. People doubting TY's potential to be a #1 WR - I disagree strongly & believe he has been more consistent (especially this year) than they are giving him credit for.[/quote] I'm guessing the career 223 yard game TY had, the day before your first post in this thread, helped to motivate you a little bit too... [/quote] It just so happens that I had not seen this thread prior to the day I first replied. And considering that I lobbied last year that TY should be starting in front of DHB & that he was to valuable as a WR to be exposed to the dangers of punt returning (which the coaches also seem to have come around to my thinking on this as well) - I think that it is safe to say that I would not have agreed with those sentiments prior to his game against the Texans. But I can see where you could have drawn that conclusion.
Edited by rccolts, Oct 17 2014, 12:13 PM.
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| BlueKoolaid | Oct 17 2014, 12:41 PM Post #73 |
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Yup. And you ain't kidding about the punt return thing. That was pissing me off, too. I loved the potential for a big play, but hated the potential for injury far more. Like you said, he's too important. I just want our returners to play it smart. Always have. Whalen can do it, though he has scared me more than a couple times this year... |
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| AustinColtsFan79 | Oct 17 2014, 03:23 PM Post #74 |
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I didn't want to get into standard deviation as a measure for consistency because we are already down this rabbit hole farther than I ever wanted to go and it will just lead to us fighting over which measures to use and what data sets are valid for what we're calculating, etc etc. For example, I don't love standard deviation here in the first place because it measures only distance from the mean. That means it penalizes a receiver both for having a really good game as well as for having a bad one. In fact, it penalizes them WORSE for good games because they are so far off the mean. If you want proof, look at the fact that everyone here agrees that TY has been consistent this year and it's his worse year with regards to standard deviation by a long way. All I'm talking about is whether a guy has a good week or not, from week to week. When you use standard deviation for stat lines like the ones TY had his first 2 seasons, the bad games are the norm and the good ones are actually the deviation, which isn't what we want to measure at all. We aren't trying to say that him being good is the inconsistency and that him being bad or mediocre is the norm. Consistency for a receiver isn't coming as close as possible to a good number of average yards every week without going over or under, it's one who minimizes the number of bad games he has during a season. It's about a guy you can count on to produce from week to week. What I said with regards to comparing TY's earlier years to comparing #1 receivers in their prime was that if you are going to say that TY has already BEEN performing like a number 1, than you have to compare his numbers against other receivers who were #1s WHILE they were. The point is that TY has been good so far, but hasn't made that leap yet. I still think he probably will. With regards to having doubts about TY being a number 1 and feeling like Moncrief is more your classic number 1, all I was talking about is body type and skill set. TY has a very specific skill set. I think he's fantastic and only getting better, but he is who he is. He is much more dangerous from his own 10 yard line than he is from the other teams 10 yard line. He's a guy who is better with more field in front of him to work with. As the field gets smaller, it gets harder for him. That doesn't mean he can't be successful, just that it's harder. It's also probably why he'll never be a 15 TD a year guy, he's going to be more of a yardage guy. That's great. Moncrief has the classic body and skills of a #1. I have NO idea if he'll ever even be any good, it's just to say that he has the physical skills. If I could only keep one right now and had to cut the other, I'd take TY in a heartbeat and never think twice about it. Long term though, I don't have any idea who will end up being better yet. I honestly feel really optimistic rooting for a team who has TWO such talented receivers full of potential and a vet like Reggie to help them along. I can't imagine a better scenario than what we have. I also worry a little bit every time that TY takes a big hit with that tiny frame of his that he's not going to get up. He's been reliable so far, but it scares me if we're being honest. Also, I totally agree about the DHB thing last year. TY is our most explosive play maker on offense, and I don't care if his blocking is terrible. He should be on the field more than any other skill player on our team. On a related note, Reggie's a big fan: http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/Reggie-Wayne-Talks-His-Bond-With-TY-Hilton-Play-Of-Pat-McAfee-And-Pat-Angerer-/60e5de73-738a-4e76-a60f-f7f15fd470d5 He certainly seem to be doing it the right way. Edited by AustinColtsFan79, Oct 17 2014, 04:25 PM.
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| TheDodo | Oct 17 2014, 07:31 PM Post #75 |
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Then find a better term than consistency, because you are not talking about consistency. You are talking about how good he is. |
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| JediColt | Oct 17 2014, 10:17 PM Post #76 |
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So in this 10 on 9 scenario, is Andrew Luck lead blocking after handing the ball off? |
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| ColtsFan | Oct 17 2014, 11:23 PM Post #77 |
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He can if you NEED him to. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFbqCrTzdzs |
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| Manitoulin | Oct 17 2014, 11:30 PM Post #78 |
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He might not always hand it off as we have seen many times. |
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| IronPony1965 | Oct 18 2014, 01:43 AM Post #79 |
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Is this debate about how TY doesnt always have 5+ catches and 80+ yards a game? That seems like thats what it is when you get to the root of the issue. TY is considered a number one receiver on every team except for the one he actually plays for apparently lol You can be a number one receiver and not be big bodied. Harrison did it for years. He wasnt going to at leap anyone or block them out of the building. No one had a problem with Harrison and TY has already outperformed Harrison to this point in their careers. By this logic we could say Reggie will forever be a number 2 or 3 receiver because he doesnt have gamebreaking speed and cant break off an 80 yard TD at any moment. |
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| BlueKoolaid | Oct 18 2014, 10:02 AM Post #80 |
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I thought it was about whether or not TY can be relied upon to take the duties of a #1 WR, which apparently blocking isn't one of... FWIW, can you guys name one current #1 WR who isn't expected to block for his team? Shiat, Marvin blocked. That's what he was doing when he got hurt. But Marvin would also get shutout of games at times when getting manhandled. We lost some heart breakers because of it. That's why I say, if you want a guy like TY or Marvin as your #1, you better have a pretty damn good WR across from him with the skills to complement theirs. That's what we have now, and it's working great. You guys saying TY doesn't need to block, though, limits our options in the running game, and I don't like the thought of it. I'm not saying TY can't block, it's something to definitely keep an eye on cause I think he has been, I'm just going off of how he was used early on. He wasn't expected to block much. #1 WR's are, and I'm sorry, but you guys saying TY wont be, if he is our #1 WR, are wrong. No, he doesn't need to be great at it, but he's gotta at least be effective. I have faith he will be. I've got a few more questions, though. TY is going to be our leading receiver this year. I have no doubt about it. But, will he be our #1 WR or will that still be Wayne? Does it even matter who the #1 is when you have the right guys to complement each other so well? Is the #1 WR really just the guy who is open for Luck on any given play? Should I get this weird looking mole on my forehead checked out? Why is there the same amount of cards in a deck as there are weeks in a year? Where's Kim Jong Un? I'll wait for answers. |
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| errsay | Oct 18 2014, 01:51 PM Post #81 |
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T.Y. Hilton IS the #1 W.R. on this team and currently the 2nd. most valuable COMMODITY on this team. I love Reggie, but age is what it is. Never thought about the card thing. Ask Dennis Rodman... |
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| JediColt | Oct 18 2014, 04:09 PM Post #82 |
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Its really a pointless argument because if TY Hilton does become a pro bowl #1 receiver, anyone who ever said he couldnt' be will just insist they never said that. At the time of the Manning - Leaf debate, most of the posters on Colts forums wanted Leaf, but in the following years, it became impossible to find so much as one single poster who would admit they wanted Leaf at the time. Reggie Wayne took crap for years as being a huge bust and a wasted pick. Kind of like how Fleener is now (not that Fleener is going to become a pro bowler), but once Reggie became a great player, all of those guys just changed their tune and refused to admit they had ever criticized him. Heck, we even had a sizable contingent (not the majority, but a decent # of people) who backed Vanderjagt after his comments criticizing the team, and argued we should get rid of Manning and rebuild the team around Vandy, and that Manning would never win a single playoff game. |
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| IronPony1965 | Oct 18 2014, 05:22 PM Post #83 |
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At the time, the way I see it, the Colts have 1A and 1B at receiver with Reggie and TY. TY will block and does block, he has to. He isnt going to just stand there and let his guy run and make a play. Obviously he isnt going to block his guy right through the end zone but there are very few receivers that are very good at blocking. I would think as a receiver, just slowing your guy is the main goal. If you are as effective as a lineman at it, its a bonus. I dont remember watching Harrison block very much but i highly doubt he was a monster of a blocker. He couldnt have been THAT much better at it than TY. With the talent and skills TY has, im definitely not going to say hes incapable of being a number one because he isnt a great blocker. You need TY on the field AT ALL TIMES. Teams have to game plan for him. He is a threat every time he touches the ball. He does it all over the field too, even going across the middle. TY is fully capable of being a number one receiver whether hes an allstar blocker or not. His positive impacts far outweigh the fact he might struggle with blocking at times. I feel like this might be a strawman argument. Ive actually never heard any analysis on a wide receiver that raves about how good he is but then says hes not top tier because hes not a good blocker. Obviously its important he does block because everyone has to but come on now... Peyton was incapable of scrambling for the most part. There are flaws in everyones game. Edited by IronPony1965, Oct 18 2014, 05:25 PM.
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| Weatherman | Oct 18 2014, 06:34 PM Post #84 |
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TY be good
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| JediColt | Oct 18 2014, 06:48 PM Post #85 |
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http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d81d3b59b/QB-Manning-27-yd-run |
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| IronPony1965 | Oct 18 2014, 08:12 PM Post #86 |
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Well...for the most part. YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN JEDI. |
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| JediColt | Oct 19 2014, 12:37 PM Post #87 |
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In his first 5 years in the league, he rushed for 556 yards and 9 TDs. In the 12 years since, he's rushed for 134 yards and 9 TDs. So yeah, he's slowed down a little. |
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| LACOLTSFAN | Oct 19 2014, 01:05 PM Post #88 |
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The look on the COLTS' players and Peyton after the run is priceless. Its like "WTF did I just see?" |
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| TheDodo | Oct 19 2014, 01:13 PM Post #89 |
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I would say he was just more selective, and needed to less once Wayne emerged as a second option. |
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| AustinColtsFan79 | Oct 19 2014, 05:27 PM Post #90 |
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Ty with another 100 yard game. He's turned the corner. He's a top 15 receiver if he stays healthy. He's clearly the best receiver on our team now. I'll never argue whether he's a true #1 or not again. He can just flat out play. |
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