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Topic Started: Aug 9 2013, 01:31 PM (374 Views)
East German Gooner

Just checked the odds to win the BPL. Arsenal at 8 to 1 and Spurs at 29 to 1. That's with Bale still on the squad and us not bought anyone yet. What am I missing?
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dsch15
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East German Gooner
Aug 9 2013, 01:31 PM
Just checked the odds to win the BPL. Arsenal at 8 to 1 and Spurs at 29 to 1. That's with Bale still on the squad and us not bought anyone yet. What am I missing?
Weird. I think Spurs' number is about right (and may include an assumption that Bale is leaving). Why we're less than double our current odds is anyone's guess. Maybe the bookies know something we don't about our transfer activity?
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billabog5
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That is strange given the fact both Chelsea & City have added to what were already very talented squads, in saying that, 8/1 is a touch short, but bookies are wary of Wenger because of the way Arsenal finished the season & because he at least looks like he has shown some real intent to buy quality players.

As the squads stand right now , with Bale at Spurs, I would have Chelsea at 5/2 City at 3/1, Utd at 4/1 & I would have Spurs 7/1 & Arsenal maybe 10/1
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billabog5
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That is strange given the fact both Chelsea & City have added to what were already very talented squads, in saying that, 8/1 is a touch short , but bookies are wary of Wenger because of the way Arsenal finished the season & because he at least looks like he has shown some real intent to buy quality players.

As the squads stand right now , with Bale at Spurs, I would have Chelsea at 5/2 City at 3/1, Utd at 4/1 & I would have Spurs 7/1 & Arsenal maybe 10/1
Edited by billabog5, Aug 9 2013, 04:21 PM.
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jays712
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If nothing changes between now and and the end of the transfer window, my odds would look like: Chelsea 3-1, City 7-2, ManU 8-1, Arsenal 12-1, and Spurs 12-1.
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billabog5
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jays712
Aug 9 2013, 05:04 PM
If nothing changes between now and and the end of the transfer window, my odds would look like: Chelsea 3-1, City 7-2, ManU 8-1, Arsenal 12-1, and Spurs 12-1.
Utd 8/1 ? The team that won the title last season in a canter with 5 weeks to spare & who have won 4 of the last 6 titles ? There would be plenty of takers at those odds, me included

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jays712
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billabog5
Aug 9 2013, 05:47 PM
jays712
Aug 9 2013, 05:04 PM
If nothing changes between now and and the end of the transfer window, my odds would look like: Chelsea 3-1, City 7-2, ManU 8-1, Arsenal 12-1, and Spurs 12-1.
Utd 8/1 ? The team that won the title last season in a canter with 5 weeks to spare & who have won 4 of the last 6 titles ? There would be plenty of takers at those odds, me included

Their true odds are certainly shorter than 8/1. Like I said before Bog, this is is a such an enormous transition year for them after SAF. I have always liked Moyes and respect the hell out of him but its gonna take a season for him to get his feet under him at ManU. He's in such an impossible situation and the fans need to cut him some slack this year if they don't really contend for the league down the stretch.
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santry_gooner
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What is it that bookmakers don't know that certain posters here do know. Bookmakers stand to lose millions if they get an especially large volume bet like this wrong. If they were entirely dismissive of Arsenal's chances they could throw out longer odds to attract people who want to take a punt.

I think that the odds reflect that we have most of the ingredients in place to make a challenge for the title, however, they also reflect that we don't have ALL the ingredients in place to win it. At least not at present.
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jays712
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santry_gooner
Aug 10 2013, 01:10 AM
What is it that bookmakers don't know that certain posters here do know. Bookmakers stand to lose millions if they get an especially large volume bet like this wrong. If they were entirely dismissive of Arsenal's chances they could throw out longer odds to attract people who want to take a punt.

I think that the odds reflect that we have most of the ingredients in place to make a challenge for the title, however, they also reflect that we don't have ALL the ingredients in place to win it. At least not at present.
If they throw out longer odds and attact more people to take a punt they stand to lose even more.
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billabog5
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jays712
Aug 9 2013, 09:35 PM
billabog5
Aug 9 2013, 05:47 PM
jays712
Aug 9 2013, 05:04 PM
If nothing changes between now and and the end of the transfer window, my odds would look like: Chelsea 3-1, City 7-2, ManU 8-1, Arsenal 12-1, and Spurs 12-1.
Utd 8/1 ? The team that won the title last season in a canter with 5 weeks to spare & who have won 4 of the last 6 titles ? There would be plenty of takers at those odds, me included

Their true odds are certainly shorter than 8/1. Like I said before Bog, this is is a such an enormous transition year for them after SAF. I have always liked Moyes and respect the hell out of him but its gonna take a season for him to get his feet under him at ManU. He's in such an impossible situation and the fans need to cut him some slack this year if they don't really contend for the league down the stretch.
I agree with what you are saying, but City also have a new coach & Utd's is less of a shif in many ways as SAF chose his successor as similar to him as possible

If Utd lose Rooney & don't get reinforcement in midfield [ both look quite likely] then odds of around 6/1 would be reasonable
The current odds of 5/2 are not very inviting whilst Spurs at 33/1 looks tempting.
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