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Managerial fingerprints
Topic Started: Oct 15 2013, 12:01 PM (428 Views)
cruyff_turn
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I recently stumbled upon the website statsbomb.com through a link from a Michael Cox piece. I must say, they are doing some astounding work with new metrics. I was most struck by this new series they are doing called "managerial fingerprints" which shows how a manager can have the same effect on a team despite differences in the quality of the personnel.

Their first piece in the series is on AVB and his teams at Porto, Chelsea, and Tottenham. It's very interesting and I can't wait to read more (especially the one about Wenger).

http://www.statsbomb.com/2013/10/manager-statistical-fingerprints-andre-villas-boas/
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dsch15
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Don't think there's going to be much to this sort of analysis in Wenger's case - not unless they can somehow unearth statistics from the J-League.

And what to make of this statement [bold/italics are mine]: "I would be shocked if Spurs don’t make the Champions’ League this year. Despite massive spending disadvantages compared to the rest of the top teams, they might even be a reasonable dark horse contenders to the league title."

Um, didn't they just spend a shitload of cash?
Edited by dsch15, Oct 15 2013, 01:21 PM.
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cruyff_turn
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dsch15
Oct 15 2013, 01:21 PM
Don't think there's going to be much to this sort of analysis in Wenger's case - not unless they can somehow unearth statistics from the J-League.

And what to make of this statement [bold/italics are mine]: "I would be shocked if Spurs don’t make the Champions’ League this year. Despite massive spending disadvantages compared to the rest of the top teams, they might even be a reasonable dark horse contenders to the league title."

Um, didn't they just spend a shitload of cash?
Again with this? What is 100M minus 85M?

And you can take issue with the prediction, but that's an afterthought for me. I'm just blown away with some of the statistics they're developing over there.

As for the analysis on Wenger, I was referring to his different Arsenal sides, obviously.
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dsch15
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cruyff_turn
Oct 15 2013, 01:39 PM
dsch15
Oct 15 2013, 01:21 PM
Don't think there's going to be much to this sort of analysis in Wenger's case - not unless they can somehow unearth statistics from the J-League.

And what to make of this statement [bold/italics are mine]: "I would be shocked if Spurs don’t make the Champions’ League this year. Despite massive spending disadvantages compared to the rest of the top teams, they might even be a reasonable dark horse contenders to the league title."

Um, didn't they just spend a shitload of cash?
Again with this? What is 100M minus 85M?

And you can take issue with the prediction, but that's an afterthought for me. I'm just blown away with some of the statistics they're developing over there.

As for the analysis on Wenger, I was referring to his different Arsenal sides, obviously.
Net spending is an unhelpful figure in the present case. A bloated fee for one player skews that approach to the extent that it is no longer a fair reflection of transfer market activity. Maybe their financial condition makes this past summer an anomaly, but Spurs spent a shitload, pure and simple.

Just as obvious (or not) as your reference to Wenger's different sides was mine to the fact the continuity that 17 years of managing one side brings to the equation must soften the impact of this sort of analysis. It would only be surprising (and enlightening) if Wenger's "fingerprints" weren't all over the numbers.
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cruyff_turn
Oct 15 2013, 01:39 PM
dsch15
Oct 15 2013, 01:21 PM
Don't think there's going to be much to this sort of analysis in Wenger's case - not unless they can somehow unearth statistics from the J-League.

And what to make of this statement [bold/italics are mine]: "I would be shocked if Spurs don’t make the Champions’ League this year. Despite massive spending disadvantages compared to the rest of the top teams, they might even be a reasonable dark horse contenders to the league title."

Um, didn't they just spend a shitload of cash?
Again with this? What is 100M minus 85M?

And you can take issue with the prediction, but that's an afterthought for me. I'm just blown away with some of the statistics they're developing over there.

As for the analysis on Wenger, I was referring to his different Arsenal sides, obviously.
come on now cruyff I think you are at least more clever than that, they got shitload of money from the sale of ONE player, I mean ONE then they spent shitload of cash.
Based on your calculation then spurs shouldn't even be expected to finish top 6 this year because they only 'spent £15m' which is nothing compared to what they have spent in the past right?
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cruyff_turn
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dsch15
Oct 15 2013, 02:06 PM
cruyff_turn
Oct 15 2013, 01:39 PM
dsch15
Oct 15 2013, 01:21 PM
Don't think there's going to be much to this sort of analysis in Wenger's case - not unless they can somehow unearth statistics from the J-League.

And what to make of this statement [bold/italics are mine]: "I would be shocked if Spurs don’t make the Champions’ League this year. Despite massive spending disadvantages compared to the rest of the top teams, they might even be a reasonable dark horse contenders to the league title."

Um, didn't they just spend a shitload of cash?
Again with this? What is 100M minus 85M?

And you can take issue with the prediction, but that's an afterthought for me. I'm just blown away with some of the statistics they're developing over there.

As for the analysis on Wenger, I was referring to his different Arsenal sides, obviously.
Net spending is an unhelpful figure in the present case. A bloated fee for one player skews that approach to the extent that it is no longer a fair reflection of transfer market activity. Maybe their financial condition makes this past summer an anomaly, but Spurs spent a shitload, pure and simple.

Just as obvious (or not) as your reference to Wenger's different sides was mine to the fact the continuity that 17 years of managing one side brings to the equation must soften the impact of this sort of analysis. It would only be surprising (and enlightening) if Wenger's "fingerprints" weren't all over the numbers.
Bale probably wasn't worth 85M pounds to many teams this summer, but I'd argue he was to Tottenham.

http://www.7amkickoff.com/2013/arsenal-should-gazump-real-madrid-and-sign-bale/

And as for Wenger's fingerprints: I would be most interested in looking at the deviation from the formula (06-10?) and how the numbers compare.
Edited by cruyff_turn, Oct 16 2013, 12:34 PM.
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supercollider7
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Spurs did spend a lot but I'd say they are still at a spending disadvantage when you look at spending over the last few years, particularly on wages.
Big clubs can pay the big bucks and attract and hold onto big stars, something Spurs can't, so it is a disadvantage.


Cruyff, I haven't checked out the site yet but it sounds interesting! There certainly is a "fingerprint" that every manager has, I'd like to see how they've quantified that.
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santry_gooner
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I can see these words scalding a certain person very painfully:

"..AVB’s system requires his team to employ a high line to allow selective defensive pressing within a confined space. This is especially true when employing two midfield destroyers, who hunt the ball and immediately recycle it to attacking players. He was also hired to help transition Chelsea away from their aging, Mourinho-built core into a newer, younger team. Unfortunately, John Terry and company were not very interested (or capable) of playing AVB’s preferred style, which resulted in all sorts of political stuff leaked from the dressing room and into the press. It also resulted in way too many great chances for opposing attackers – note the shots on target conceded percentage – and AVB was eventually fired in March."

A damn fine read. When do they do 'arry? Or is the lower league not going to be covered...
Edited by santry_gooner, Oct 17 2013, 03:53 PM.
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santry_gooner
Oct 17 2013, 03:46 PM
I can see these words scalding a certain person very painfully:

"..AVB’s system requires his team to employ a high line to allow selective defensive pressing within a confined space. This is especially true when employing two midfield destroyers, who hunt the ball and immediately recycle it to attacking players. He was also hired to help transition Chelsea away from their aging, Mourinho-built core into a newer, younger team. Unfortunately, John Terry and company were not very interested (or capable) of playing AVB’s preferred style, which resulted in all sorts of political stuff leaked from the dressing room and into the press. It also resulted in way too many great chances for opposing attackers – note the shots on target conceded percentage – and AVB was eventually fired in March."

A damn fine read. When do they do 'arry? Or is the lower league not going to be covered...
Me thinks if a player isn't capable of playing AVB's style, then AVB drops him, but it seems AVB hasn't got the balls to do so, in other words he's a pu**y and should stick with clubs like porto without strong personalities. Funny enough AVB's mentor didn't find it difficult to bench a player who didn't suit his style despite the fact that the player is chelsea's player.
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santry_gooner
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dream_team
Oct 18 2013, 07:21 PM
santry_gooner
Oct 17 2013, 03:46 PM
I can see these words scalding a certain person very painfully:

"..AVB’s system requires his team to employ a high line to allow selective defensive pressing within a confined space. This is especially true when employing two midfield destroyers, who hunt the ball and immediately recycle it to attacking players. He was also hired to help transition Chelsea away from their aging, Mourinho-built core into a newer, younger team. Unfortunately, John Terry and company were not very interested (or capable) of playing AVB’s preferred style, which resulted in all sorts of political stuff leaked from the dressing room and into the press. It also resulted in way too many great chances for opposing attackers – note the shots on target conceded percentage – and AVB was eventually fired in March."

A damn fine read. When do they do 'arry? Or is the lower league not going to be covered...
Me thinks if a player isn't capable of playing AVB's style, then AVB drops him, but it seems AVB hasn't got the balls to do so, in other words he's a pu**y and should stick with clubs like porto without strong personalities. Funny enough AVB's mentor didn't find it difficult to bench a player who didn't suit his style despite the fact that the player is chelsea's player.
Oh but he did "rest" Terry. Makes you wonder what would have happened if he had control of signings at Chelsea.
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