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Minor rumours of a speculative fiction writer being considered or a writer that has written something within that genre. The nobel prize has been awarded to a number in the later category (I have counted nine thus far, Lessing the most recent winning at the age of 88, noting Canopus in Argos).

I still think it will be a woman from outside of Europe and to cover one from only three continents within this context (i.e either predominately wrote spec fiction or have some works in this category):

North America: 86 year old Le Guin for sure is firmly in the race. The recent "The Library of America" inclusion is a distinct honour especially whilst still alive: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/29/books/ursula-le-guin-has-earned-a-rare-honor-just-dont-call-her-a-sci-fi-writer.html?_r=0 I will be reading more of her works thx to Jacek.

South America: 88 year old Argentine author Angélica Gorodischer, numerous literary awards (eg World Fantasy Lifetime Achievement Award.) and non-literary awards (eg Permanent Assembly for Human Rights for works and activity in women`s rights), prolific, covering a variety of genres and the wiki entry does not do justice to her bibliography (especially the last few years). Speculative fiction is what she is best known for outside Argentina (Kalpa Imperial: The Greatest Empire That Never Was, in particular, which I enjoyed) but I was more impressed by the lesser read Prodigies (which she considers her best work). Of course Le Guin is a fan (tr, her). Its been over 70 years since a Latin American woman has won the prize. Mistral was the very first Latin American, and the only Latin American woman, to receive the Nobel Prize (1945).

Asia: Can Xue, I think based on a few essays on her designated masterpiece I have read, if a translation of Frontiers has been made available to the Academy, Can will be a serious consideration. I also think some of the Academy’s new members would be more open in considering her. However more a future prospect rather than immediate.

My current thoughts are that Le Guin will win this year even when ignoring the baseless rumours.
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Nobel Prize 2016 · General discussion