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nnyhav
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itinerant kibitzer
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digging back to alliknowis' 2011 analysis, his follow-up (with the struck down struck thru) still provides the best baseline:
Quote:
 
To sum it up, the shortlist of leading contenders for the next five years IMO are:

Poetry- Bei Dao, Adonis, Ashbery, Hill, Transtromer, Sonnevi, Zagajewski, Jaccottet, Bonnefoy
Prose- Thiong'o, Atwood, Djebar, Malouf, Nadas, Krasznahorkai, Magris, Marias, de Palol, Khoury, Hwang Sok-yong.
Other- Cixous, Havel, Galeano.

In the next 6 years they will give it to:
Ngugi wa Thiong'o (Kenyan novelist)
Bei Dao (Chinese poet)
Margaret Atwood (Canadian novelist)
either Assia Djebar or Helene Cixous (French-language female prose writer)
either Adonis or Elias Khoury (Arabic-language writer)
and either Amos Oz or Vaclav Havel (elder statesman/icon)

In the future, but not within the next 6 years, they will give it to:
David Grossman
Javier Marias
Mikhail Shishkin
Hwang Sok-yong
Peter Nadas, Laszlo Krasznahorkai, or Mircea Cartarescu, at least one
Olga Tokarczuk
I'd put highly favorable odds on the next laureate coming from this list (excepting Atwood because Munro)

add: while I'm at it, last year's Ladbrokes openers (yeah I'd add Kadare and Fosse to the field) (and won't discount the chance that the Swedish Academy doubles down on pop culture with Murakami)
Edited by nnyhav, Sep 6 2017, 01:00 PM.
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Nobel Prize 2017 · General discussion