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Literary lunatic
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Well, here are some facts that make me think this years winner will be an author who writes in English:

- In the last 25 years, a writer in English language has been selected 9 times, represented more than any other language
- This gives an average of a English language writer awarded every 2.7 years (let's leave it at 3)
- If this year a non English writer is selected will be the 5th without one.
- Longest streak without was 5, between Heaney (1996) and Naipaul (2001)
- However, this English language drought was preceded by a period 5 years (1991-1996) with 4 of 5 winners coming from the English language speaking world (Gordimer, Walcott, Morrison, Heaney) therefore the need to have a space between winners.
- Now going to countries, don't think UK will be selected as the previous two English language winner comes from there (Lessing & Pinter).
- Still see an anti United States feeling in the Swedish Academy, commanded by the powerful figure of Engdahl.
- Don't see a big name coming from Ireland. So I think winner will come from Canada, Africa or Australia.
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Nobel Prize 2012 · General discussion