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itinerant kibitzer
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Rather than arguing from merit I'm going to try to narrow the field of the Ladbroke list:
1) I don't think they'll opt for another Anglophone this year (that knocks off a third of them).
2) I also think that the chances for the hardy perennials are overstated: It's not a people's choice award people, it's a matter of attracting betting action. So no Murakami, Kundera, Eco, and goes double (with 1) for Oates, Roth, Pynchon ...
3) The 50/1 longshots are filling the field, not seriously in the running (which makes for a trifecta for Rushdie & McCarthy, ntm Dylan).(a shame, Nooteboom & Marias dismissed that way, less so Handke)

So with less than half a list left, down to individual cases, in roughly order of decreasing confidence:
Alexievich's nonfiction however strong hasn't been a category the Nobels have recognized for ages.
Farah's probably trumped by his fellow Africans.
Remarkable paucity of names from Western Europe, but I don't think Da(r)cia Maraini's in the running,
Scandinavia still too fresh, so no Jon Fosse.
Tony's point I think points away from Adonis & Oz this time round.

So what's left?
Nadas? Cartarescu? Lobo Antunes? possible but not likely ...
Bei Dao? Ko Un? a little less unlikely.
And so, best bets, Djebar or Thiong'o. But I'm sure the Committee will expose the flaw in my reasoning.

(It's kind of interesting that worthies Kadare & Bonnefoy [& Goytisolo (Juan)] have dropped off the list this year ... oh,yeah, last year's odds)
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Nobel Prize 2014 · General discussion