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Nobel Prize 2017
Topic Started: Aug 23 2017, 10:58 PM (9,952 Views)
redhead
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Thanks Didi and oneofmurphysbiscuits, Seiobo it is then.

And I'm a fan of Can Xue, but I feel like her surreal dream worlds are actually usually not at all what the academy goes for.

Re: Last year's odds, I had forgotten how little potentially meaningful movement there really was other than DeLillo. All the people near the top moved up a little, like every year. Marias shot up, but he also had no business being at 66/1 in the first place. I wonder if there were no leaks. It's possible news of an American winner got out, and some bettors assumed it would be DeLillo.
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redhead
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Some odds have finally been released, not at ladbrokes, though:
http://www.nicerodds.co.uk/nobel-prize-in-literature

Some surprising omissions, like Ko Un, and a lot of women writers. Unless I've missed someone, only Atwood and Ugresic are there. Probably the most noteworthy thing is Yan Lianke being so high. I also want to point out Claudio Magris wasn't even listed last year when the odds opened and is now at 15/1.
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Didi
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not sure of what to make of this list (and the narrative below....)

but a yes to Kamau Brathwaite's inclusion.
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redhead
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Ah yes, that painful-to-read text below is from before the Nobel list went live. I believe the site had odds on the Man Booker International Prize and the copy was for that...surprised they haven't at least gotten someone to proof it. But I'm pretty sure Nicerodds is an aggregate of available odds (at least for the Nobel), so I wouldn't judge the list based on that awful text.
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suzannahhh
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Didi
Sep 6 2017, 09:13 PM
not sure of what to make of this list (and the narrative below....)

but a yes to Kamau Brathwaite's inclusion.
yes indeed, didi, to Kamau

I find I just don't have much interest t his year
a leftover consequence of last year's
ridiculosity
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DDR
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Didi
Sep 6 2017, 07:22 PM
Here is a list of the leading contemporary female Chinese writers (some probably too young for this prize, but a good list nevertheless):

https://www.theodysseyonline.com/7-chinese-women-writers-works-should-read

Edit: I never thought of Liao Yimei in this context before , but I certainly think she should be a consideration, I am unsure how well she is known outside Asia/Oceania- (does have a following in Australia) - but elsewhere ? - check her wiki entry.
I think the Mo Yan Nobel is still too recent to think about another Chinese laureate. Probably it's time to go back to Japan (been a while since Kenzaburo) or land for the first time in Korea.

I'd love to see Japanese poet Shuntarō Tanikawa winning.
Edited by DDR, Sep 7 2017, 04:41 PM.
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Didi
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Kamau’s inclusion (who by the way continues to be very active, 2 books this year) may possibly hint that a Caribbean poet may be in the mix.

If so, and given some expectation of a woman winning this year, then I would to put Jamaican Lorna Goodison as a potential candidate.
Edited by Didi, Sep 7 2017, 08:09 PM.
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johnnywalkitoff
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redhead
Sep 6 2017, 07:26 PM
Thanks Didi and oneofmurphysbiscuits, Seiobo it is then.

And I'm a fan of Can Xue, but I feel like her surreal dream worlds are actually usually not at all what the academy goes for.

Re: Last year's odds, I had forgotten how little potentially meaningful movement there really was other than DeLillo. All the people near the top moved up a little, like every year. Marias shot up, but he also had no business being at 66/1 in the first place. I wonder if there were no leaks. It's possible news of an American winner got out, and some bettors assumed it would be DeLillo.
I third Seiobo I've loved all of I've read of his work (not read Destruction and Sorrow or Melancholy of Resistance yet though...Melancholy of Resistance is to be read soon...after, Zeno's Conscience and then Flights by Olga and Dante and Early Beckett also reading a lot of Ashbery again) and I'd forgot about Can Xue...she's fucking great!
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Didi
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Ladbrokes' odds are out:

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/tv-specials/specials/other-specials/2017-nobel-prize-for-literature/225689183/

well Atwood’s rise is unexpected for this year, a Nobel prize will guarantee readership for Scribbler Moon
Ladbrokes true to their word that they have got the message about Murakami and will not be starting him as favourite.
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nnyhav
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^ cutpasting for futureference (and for side by side (or tab), last year's closers* from Didi upthread):

4/1 Ngugi Wa Thiong'o
5/1 Haruki Murakami
6/1 Margaret Atwood
10/1 Amos Oz, Claudio Magris. Javier Marias
12/1 Adunis
14/1 Don DeLilo [sic], Yan Lianke
16/1 Ko Un
18/1 Jon Fosse
20/1 Antonio Lobo Antunes, Cesar Aira, Ismail Kadare, Laszlo Krasznahorkai
25/1 Abraham B Yehoshua, Daniel Kahneman, Joyce Carol Oates, Peter Handke. Philip Roth
28/1 Peter Nadas
33/1 Adam Zagajewski, David Grossman, Doris Kareva, John Banville, Juan Marse, Kjell Askildsen, Merethe Lindstrom, Mia Couto, Mircea Cartarescu, Ursula Le Guin
50/1 Colm Toibin, Gerald Murnane, Jaan Kaplinski, Jussi Adler-Olsen, Leonard Nolens, Les Murray, Lydia Davis, Marilynne Robinson, Milan Kundera, Navid Kermani, Nawal El Saadawi, Olga Tokarczuk, Yevgeniy Yevtushenko
66/1 Bei Dao, Cees Nooteboom, Charles Portis, Cormac McCarthy, Darcia Maraini, David Malouf, Eduardo Mendoza-Garriga, Elena Ferrante, Enrique Vila-Matas, Joan Didion, Juan Goytisolo, Julian Barnes, Karol [sic] Schoeman, Nuruddin Farah, Paul Muldoon, Peter Carey, Rohinton Mistry, Thomas Pynchon, Tom Stoppard, William Trevor
80/1 Richard Ford, Salman Rushdie
100/1 A S Byatt, Don Patterson, F Sioni Jose, Hilary Mantel, James Kelman. John Ashbery. Kamau Brathwaite, Karl Ove Knausgard

* mostly the same ol'; differences probly due to nicerodds (but I dunno), such as some new names (Merethe Lindstrom, Kamau Brathwaite) and Atwood's and Lianke's elevation (add: edit to strikethru per Didi, thx again)
Edited by nnyhav, Sep 8 2017, 11:56 PM.
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Didi
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yeh same ol', with 5 that should not be there (JA,WT,YY,KS, JG) - shows how much thought is put into this at this opening stage.

and thx for putting it up, I had some formatting problems.

edit- to include JG as per nnyhav listing
Edited by Didi, Sep 9 2017, 02:57 PM.
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Didi
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A female poet from Korea cannot be out of the question and Kim Nam-jo is probably the leading candidate in this respect.

(I think Park Wan-suh should have won it years ago, to have been the first Korean winner)
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redhead
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Based on the odds so far, I'd say Atwood, Oz, Marias, Magris and Lianke are the most likely winners, especially because most leaks in recent years have come from the short list rather than the eventual winner. Magris and Marias would be my favorites from there, followed by Oz and Atwood. Lianke wouldn't be a debacle like last year, but I feel like a lot of his work isn't all that great and a lot of his fame comes more from his politics. I could see him being a compromise candidate, though.
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Didi
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I doubt they commit the intelligence resources to ascertain the shortlist at the opening stage. This prize makes little for them although they said they did get a reasonable return last year which is of no surprise. Leaks no doubt happen and they are reflected more on the betting by those privy to them, their impact on the profit algorithm and the resulting odds movements. I see little meaning in the opening list irrespective of the relative movements from last year inclusive of Atwood (who I do not think will win). There is also the standard and luring “false favourite” device and its variations that could potentially be in play. From those on the favourite list it is Marias that stands out only because of the late movement last year. In any case, I expect a woman to win this year and also expect that it will not be a North American nor any other English language writer.
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redhead
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True, there are plenty of false flags. Then again, Mo Yan and Modiano both leaked at around the short list stage the years they won, and Tranströmer, Alexievich and Munro all had incredibly low odds to begin with the years they won, so even if a short list leak happened then nothing could've really been done about it. Much like with all Nobel betting, the opening odds changes could easily mean nothing, but a short list leak has happened enough where it's worthwhile to consider those changes imo
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Didi
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You make a valid point red with that historical perspective.

With Atwood there have been strong rumours circulating all this year (inclusive of the period before shortlisting of the top 5 candidates), at least for her nomination:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3234587/margaret-atwoods-trump-era/

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Didi
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probably due for a Czech winner

Daniela Hodrova would surely have to be a contender
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redhead
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Thanks for the name, Didi. I'll have to check her out. Did you ever read Seifert?

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Didi
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its been some time now, and it was an older translation than what you had read recently.
your post and Blos' previous one has prompted a need to revisit
Given their rich literary history the Czech's are due, one poet is not enough.
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kline19
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What about Bei Dao? I think he just came out with a new book.
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